- 04/06/2025
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 04/06/2025.
A few systems will bring more persistent rain through the next 10 days, with showers at other times.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
A few systems will bring more persistent rain through the next 10 days, with showers at other times.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello. I'm getting a little bit tired of using the word changeable to describe our weather,
00:05but it's fair to say the weather is going to be pretty changeable through the next 10 days.
00:09Let's start off looking at the jet stream, and it's running close to the UK,
00:14and importantly, we're on the northern side of it, the cooler, the fresher side,
00:19which is why there is a fresher feel to things at the moment compared to what we saw through some recent weeks.
00:24But if we run the picture through, and while the jet is driving a system across the country
00:29as we go through Thursday, so some fairly wet weather for many of us through Thursday,
00:33then more showers to come as we go through later Thursday and into Friday,
00:37and then notice the jet is driving another area of low pressure that's heading towards the UK,
00:43and this is going to bring some heavy rain as we go through Saturday as well.
00:47But let's start back and go back to Thursday and look in a bit more detail,
00:52and yes, a bit of a wet picture through the morning in particular across much of England and Wales,
00:57a swathe of, at times, quite persistent rain pushing its way eastwards.
01:00But that clears through as we go through the early afternoon, but plenty of showers following in behind,
01:05and some of these showers could be quite heavy.
01:07There could be some thunder mixed in, and there will be some blustery winds,
01:11a bit of a breeze around as well.
01:13In terms of rainfall totals, some places could be looking at around 30 to 40 millimetres,
01:18particularly over parts of England and perhaps Wales because of that more persistent rain during the morning,
01:23and then those heavier showers following in behind.
01:26Temperatures, like I said, were on that fresher side, that northern side of the jet,
01:30so nothing really to write home about, generally peaking in the mid to high teens Celsius.
01:36If you get any of the decent sunny spells away from the showers,
01:39and if you're in the shelter from the breeze, well, it's not going to feel too bad at all.
01:44It is June after all.
01:46The showers will continue for a time as we go through later Thursday.
01:48A lot of them are going to fizzle out, but there are some spells of rain nearby.
01:53Most of the outbreaks of rain will be coming in from the west.
01:55Could be some heavier outbreaks of rain pushing eastwards as we go through the early hours of Friday morning
02:00and early towards dawn as well.
02:03That then clears away towards the east through the morning,
02:05but there will then still be a scattering of showers following in behind.
02:09The showers, again, could be quite heavy across parts of Scotland, northern England, and also northern Ireland.
02:15And once more, some thunder isn't out of the question.
02:18But actually, across the bulk of England and Wales, away from some of the coastal fringes,
02:23it's actually looking pretty decent once the earlier showery rain clears through.
02:28And if anything, temperatures look like they could be a touch higher than on Thursday.
02:32So a greater chance of getting to highs of around 19, possibly 20 Celsius.
02:36More showers continuing for a time as we go through later Friday, particularly across northern parts.
02:42But then our attention turns to what's going to happen on Saturday.
02:46And the jet stream is driving an area of low pressure that's heading towards us.
02:50It's not an especially deep area of low pressure, but nonetheless, it is going to bring some more unsettled weather.
02:56We're going to see a swathe of heavy, showery rain pushing its way across many parts.
03:01Most areas likely to see some fairly heavy bursts at times.
03:05And there will be some blustery winds mixed in.
03:08All the time, the showers, well, they could have some oomph behind them.
03:11We could see some hail, could see some thunder mixed in with them as well.
03:14But there will be some bright or sunny spells in between the showers, albeit those are going to be pretty limited.
03:20The showers continue for a time as we go through the evening as well.
03:23And as a result, there's a potential that we could see some rainfall totals building up.
03:27If we take a look at the kind of rainfall totals that we're expecting and, well, by their very nature, showers are hit and miss.
03:34So not everywhere we'll see them.
03:36And it's a little bit difficult to pinpoint exactly where we're going to see the highest rainfall totals.
03:41But this just demonstrates that there's the potential that some places could see 30 to 40, possibly in excess of 50 millimetres of rain as we go through Saturday.
03:51If you catch any of those heavy downpours, if you catch a couple of them, that's when we could see the highest rainfall totals.
03:57At this stage, it's a bit too early to be too precise of where it's going to see the highest rainfall and where has the greatest chance of seeing some impacts from the rain.
04:05But it does look like across England and Wales, particularly towards the west, but also towards the south, really, well, we could see the greatest chance of some impacts.
04:13We may need to issue some warnings nearer the time.
04:16Then as we go through into Sunday, the system that brings the more unsettled weather on Saturday, that clears away towards the east, a bit of a ridge of high pressure.
04:25So Sunday does look like it will be the driest day for many places, not totally dry, though.
04:30There are a few showers over the northern and eastern side of that ridge, so Northern Ireland, Scotland, and down the eastern side of England, a good few showers here and there.
04:38The rest of England and Wales, mostly dry, not totally dry, but mostly dry.
04:43And again, some sunny spells breaking out, temperatures similar to what we've seen through the preceding days, really, mid to high teens Celsius at best.
04:51But this is the 10-day trend, so let's look further ahead.
04:54And how's it looking as we go through next week?
04:56Well, the changeable theme does look set to continue.
04:58So these are the three most likely setups for next Monday, the 9th of June.
05:04And this suggests that sort of an area of low pressure somewhere towards the north of the UK, not particularly strong flow across the UK.
05:12It's looking pretty flat.
05:14Similar-ish setups to some extent, actually.
05:17Well, the second most likely setup starts to bring in high pressure from the west or southwest.
05:23So it could quieten things down, but really, I mean, if we look at the percentage chance, it's close to 50%.
05:29I think it's going to be something like this.
05:31If we look at our postage stamps from ECMWF, so these show all the different possible members.
05:35And they're all similar-ish in as much as they have low pressure somewhere towards the northwest of the UK.
05:42But just how developed it is, well, that's where there are some question marks.
05:46I think most likely it'll be something kind of akin to member 23, perhaps.
05:51So relatively deep air of low pressure somewhere just to the north of the UK.
05:55And that will bring some wet and perhaps windy weather, particularly to northern parts, greater chance of staying dry towards more southern areas.
06:02But it's just worth bearing in mind that, well, there are some question marks as to just how quickly this is going to push through and how developed a feature it's going to be.
06:10It could be a fair bit slacker and could take a little bit longer.
06:14But let's start ahead a couple of days.
06:16And this time we're looking at Wednesday.
06:17And if we look at the most likely setup, and it's another area of low pressure coming in, but this one, there's a reasonable chance it's going to hang back a little bit longer and just linger out to the west of us.
06:29And why is that important?
06:30Well, because it could allow for a bit of air to come up from the south before this low comes in.
06:36Worth bearing in mind, not all of the models are in agreement with that.
06:40And some are a bit more developmental and so push things through a little bit quicker and bring that low further across.
06:46As a result, we don't have the time for that plume to come up from the south.
06:50But if that does happen, and again, looking at our various members, a fair few of them suggesting that we could have something developing and coming up from the south.
06:59Well, if we look at our wet bulb potential temperature, and you can see if we get that low lingering to the west of us and that allows that plume of warmer, more moist air to come up from the south.
07:11Well, that does bring the risk of potentially, yes, a rise in our temperatures.
07:16We could see something a little bit warmer or hotter for a time as we go through the middle of next week.
07:21But with that, a lot of instability, we could have some severe thunderstorms kicking off as well.
07:26Nothing unheard of for this stage in June, but just something to be aware of.
07:30Like I say, though, still some question marks as to how quickly that feature through the middle of next week moves through.
07:35The quicker it goes through, the less likely we are to see that hotter air and also those thundery downpours.
07:41Then as we go towards the end of the week, and still a changeable theme as we go through Thursday and into Friday.
07:46So low pressure likely to be somewhere nearby.
07:49The devil's in the detail, and we can't be too precise with that at this lead time.
07:53But if we look ahead to Saturday, and I wanted to bring this to your attention because the most likely setup will be at only 15%,
08:00but the most likely setup for next Saturday is for high to be building from the southwest.
08:05And if this happens, well, there's a chance that this could last for a little while at least.
08:11If we look at our probability plot when it comes to our pressure setups,
08:15and you can see the blues indicating low pressure, more changeable, unsettled weather.
08:19They're the theme through the rest of this week, and generally a changeable pattern through much of next week as well.
08:25But a signal that we could see high pressure with the reds becoming more of a dominant feature
08:31as we go towards the middle of June, around the 14th or 15th.
08:35Now, it's worth bearing in mind we have said similar when we look around 10 days ahead in the future in previous forecasts.
08:42And it's quite often there's a thing called the 10-day ridge, which is, well, what we often see around 10 days in advance,
08:50signs of a ridge building, high pressure and more settled weather, which is what we do kind of have here.
08:55So no guarantee this is definitely going to happen.
08:57It may get delayed and pushed back, and it may take until deeper into June before we actually see the return of the more settled weather.
09:06But confidence is growing that it's going to happen around that middle weekend of June.
09:11Also worth bearing in mind, even if we do see high pressure building,
09:15it may not be a great big blocking high that we saw through much of spring.
09:19It could just be a temporary feature, so high nearby, but there would also be some more changeable weather around as well.
09:26So definitely want to keep on top of, and we will be doing that.
09:30We will be keeping you updated with the forecast as we go through the next 10 days and beyond.
09:35I'll see you again soon.
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