10 Day Trend 02/07/2025 – Could the heat return? – Met Office weather forecast UK - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 02/07/2025. During the past three weeks has brought two heatwaves. Cool westerlies have now returned but could this pattern repeat itself a third time? Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.  You may also enjoy: – Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt – Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0 – Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL

Transcript

00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend.

00:03Now, during the past three weeks or so, the UK has been through two cycles of what appears

00:08to be a repeating weather pattern.

00:11Now, we've started off, this is the second week of June on the top, and then the third

00:15week of June, fourth week of June, just to look at the last three weeks of weather patterns.

00:21And this shows the temperature anomalies each day.

00:24Red for warmer than average, blue for colder than average, is what you'd expect.

00:27But what we saw during the start of the second week of June was a continuation of the cool

00:33and changeable weather that we had throughout the first week of June, so generally blues on

00:38the map there.

00:39Then those cool, changeable westerlies were replaced by a build in pressure, and that higher pressure

00:46led to day-by-day temperature increases, peaking in a three- or four-day hot spell for many

00:51parts of the UK, particularly towards the south, followed by a return to cool, changeable

00:56westerlies end of the third week of June into the fourth week of June, before higher pressure

01:00built once again.

01:01Day-by-day temperatures increased, this time the increase in temperatures more focused

01:06towards the south and east of the UK, culminating in the hottest day of the year so far, of course,

01:12the first of July.

01:14Now we're into July, and that heat has been pushed aside, and the question is whether we're

01:19going to see a repeat.

01:21We've got the cool, changeable westerlies back as high pressure has retreated towards

01:27the south-west, back to the Azores, and this semi-permanent high pressure that you get near

01:33the Azores, known as the Azores High, it's been ebbing and flowing from the south-west

01:39through the last three weeks, hence this repeating cycle.

01:44So it has retreated somewhat, but actually over the next couple days it's going to build

01:47back slightly, and that's going to bring mostly fine weather to the south on Thursday, Friday,

01:52and a build in temperatures once again, and a build in humidities across many parts of

01:57the UK as this more humid air from the tropics comes along.

02:01But we've got low pressure to the north, and that's going to bring some very wet weather

02:06to north-western parts of the UK, and so we're going to see a continuation of another

02:10common feature of our weather during recent weeks, and in fact, during recent months or

02:15so, a north-west-south-east split, with the wettest weather towards the north-west staying

02:22dry towards the south and south-east.

02:26But that high pressure towards the Azores tends to linger through the weekend, and that

02:31means that the jet stream will end up dipping south.

02:35Cooler, showery weather for many parts of the UK, again, the focus for the most changeable

02:40weather towards the north-west, whilst it stays drier and more settled towards the south

02:45and east, but temperatures dropping away because of the jet stream dipping south.

02:50And the question is whether that Azores high will then build back in again, as it has done

02:56during the last two cycles of this repeating weather pattern.

03:00More on that in a moment, but we start Thursday with that north-west-south-east split.

03:04Plenty of sunshine for England and Wales, and for Scotland and Northern Ireland, a cloudier

03:09start to the day.

03:10Cool for many of us as we begin Thursday, a more comfortable night for sleeping Wednesday

03:14night into Thursday.

03:16But given the sunny spells that we'll have across southern and south-eastern parts, still

03:21pleasantly warm if fresher compared with recent times, 26 there in the south-east, low to

03:27mid-twenties elsewhere.

03:28But for Scotland and Northern Ireland, we've got blustery showers, some heavy downpours into

03:32western Scotland in particular, and that wet weather will continue to accumulate through

03:36the rest of the week.

03:37Initially in the form of showers crossing the northern half of the UK, by that I mean

03:41Northern England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and then turning to more persistent rain by

03:47the end of Thursday night.

03:48Again, a fresher night for sleeping for many of us, with temperatures dipping to the 12-14

03:53range.

03:54But we've got these weather fronts establishing themselves across the north of the UK on Friday,

04:00whilst that extension of high pressure lingers in the south.

04:05So again, a north-south split in proceedings, cloudier skies for Northern England, Northern

04:10Ireland, and Scotland.

04:12Wet weather pushing in, and that rain turning heavy and persistent during the morning across

04:16western Scotland, especially western hills of Scotland, with strong winds accompanying it.

04:22So not at all good for anyone heading on their holidays.

04:26I know the schools are breaking up across Scotland, and there might be a lot of holiday

04:31makers, especially across western Scotland, where the weather will be unseasonably unsettled.

04:36Further south, a marked contrast with actually plenty of warm sunshine and feeling more humid

04:41once again, temperatures into the mid, perhaps high 20s.

04:46Here's a summary of the rainfall through Friday.

04:48The 24-hour rain totals 50 mils widely across western Scotland, 25 across other parts of

04:56Scotland and Northern Ireland.

04:58And in some spots, the risk of more than 100 millimetres of rain over some of the higher

05:03parts of western Scotland, particularly, say, the Isle of Skye.

05:06And that rainfall coming on top of what has actually been a wet June for western Scotland, parts

05:12of northwest England could cause a few issues.

05:15Now, further south, barely a drop of rain on Friday, and in fact, some shelter parts

05:20of eastern Scotland not seeing much rain either.

05:22But these weather fronts do tend to topple across the country.

05:26They move south.

05:27They do run into an area of high pressure, so they weaken a little, but there's always

05:30a chance on Saturday of this feature running along southern parts of the UK to bring some

05:36much-needed rainfall to many parts of England and Wales.

05:40And actually, the southwest of England, the focus for some heavier, more persistent rain,

05:44particularly on, say, Bodmin Moor, Dartmoor, where there could be 20 to 40 millimetres.

05:49It tends to fizzle away later in the day.

05:52It'll be on and off in many parts and turning more showery as the day goes on.

05:56But you can see the extent of the cloud cover across the UK, not much sunshine around.

06:00It is going to feel relatively humid in the south whilst fresher conditions arrive into

06:05the north, yet more rain to come for western Scotland, not as heavy or as persistent as

06:09Friday's rainfall.

06:12Then into Sunday, all of this turns more showery.

06:15We've got a west-to-northwest airflow.

06:17It's a cool airflow.

06:19It's unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain across northwestern parts of the UK.

06:25Fewer showers to the south and the east, but there's always a chance of one or two.

06:2824 Celsius in the southeast, high teens, low 20s elsewhere, in other words, temperatures

06:33back close to average, if not in a few spots a little below.

06:38We keep that blustery northwesterly into the start of next week.

06:42Jetstream dips to the south.

06:43It's cooler than average across many parts of the UK.

06:46Further showers or longer spells of rain, particularly to the northwest.

06:49But this is the point at which high pressure near the Azores could well start to build in

06:54again.

06:55And there's a lot of uncertainty from this point forward, but the emerging theme in a

07:01lot of the computer models is for high pressure to become more influential again from middle

07:07of next week.

07:08Now this sums it up.

07:09This is a probability plot.

07:12And the chart I just showed you was Monday.

07:14And that shows, well, this shows the probability of various weather patterns, by the way.

07:19They're color coded.

07:21And the most likely weather pattern for Monday is this color, northwesterlies.

07:26There's a chance of westerlies as well.

07:28So west and northwesterlies on Monday.

07:31The Azores high that we've got at the moment, extending from the southwest, that's colored by

07:36this yellow, and it makes a bit more of an appearance later on in this probability plot,

07:42which goes out to the next two weeks.

07:44But it's not the only weather pattern that makes an appearance.

07:47There's an assortment of different colors, and many of them are just variations on the

07:52same theme.

07:53Here's the top three most likely weather patterns for the middle of next week, 9th of

07:57July.

07:58The most likely is that Azores high starting to build in again from the southwest.

08:02Still low pressure nearer to the north of the UK, so still some changeable weather for

08:06northern Scotland in this scenario.

08:08But if I step aside, you can see the second and third most likely weather patterns.

08:12A westerly flavor there.

08:15And a southwesterly flavor, with low pressure closer to the northwest of Scotland.

08:21The colors represent weather temperatures are more likely to be below or above average.

08:25But most likely they'll be not far from average.

08:28Although as that Azores high builds in, and this is the top three for Thursday the 10th

08:34of July, we are likely to see a return to some warmer than average weather.

08:39Again, southwesterlies there, quite windy in the northwest.

08:43And westerlies showing that there's some uncertainty about the extent that the Azores high will build

08:50in and the scale at which low pressure will be shunted further north.

08:55But it does look likely that the Azores high will be arriving closer to the southwest at

09:03least through next week.

09:04And that's summed up by this pressure anomaly graphic for the whole of next week from the

09:11European model.

09:12And it shows higher than normal pressure, most likely towards the west of the UK.

09:16So that Azores high building back in again from the southwest.

09:21And if that happens, temperatures would climb.

09:24This is for a midpoint in the UK and it shows the temperature trend.

09:28The red boxes here showing the range in likely temperatures.

09:30The red line is the average for the time of year.

09:33And as you can see, those boxes dip below average for the start of next week, having been close

09:39to average through the weekend.

09:41And then they begin to climb, but they get bigger at the same time.

09:44So that means there's greater uncertainty in terms of how warm it will get.

09:49And that depends on how much the Azores high will build back in.

09:54After a cool, showery start to the week, the Azores high is likely to return to the UK.

09:59But whether it sticks just to the southwest or whether it builds across the whole of the

10:02UK as it did during the last two heatwaves through June, well, we'll have to wait and see.

10:09So there's some uncertainty about that, and that, of course, will have an impact on temperatures.

10:13Yes, turning warmer and drier in many places, particularly the south.

10:17Another hot spell on the way for the end of next week.

10:20Well, we'll have to wait for more clarification from the computer models.

10:24But, of course, we'll keep you updated on all of that right here at the Met Office.

10:27You can follow those updates on YouTube.

10:29Bye-bye.

10:30Bye-bye.

10 Day Trend 02/07/2025 – Could the heat return? – Met Office weather forecast UK

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