- 11/06/2025
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 11/06/2025.
Heat + humidity + low pressure will bring energetic thunderstorms during the next few days. But what will happen after the storms clear the air?
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
Heat + humidity + low pressure will bring energetic thunderstorms during the next few days. But what will happen after the storms clear the air?
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend.
00:03Following such a remarkably sunny and warm spring, June has started with a very different
00:09flavour of weather, cool and changeable.
00:11But that's all about to change as we switch from westerlies to sotherlies.
00:15In fact, it's already feeling warmer out there this Wednesday afternoon and it's going to
00:20become increasingly humid.
00:22That's perhaps the most important aspect of the weather during the next few days as winds
00:26come from the south.
00:28Not only do we have rising temperatures and rising humidity, we've also got lowering
00:33pressure, that low pressure approaching from the west.
00:35All the ingredients, in other words, for thunderstorms.
00:39And we're likely to see two phases of thunderstorms over the next few days.
00:43The first one starting on Wednesday evening.
00:46More details on these, of course, in our daily national weather.
00:49But just briefly, these showers and thunderstorms will start off in the south west, move into
00:54parts of Wales by dawn and approach Northern Ireland during Thursday morning.
01:00Hit and miss, of course.
01:01But there will be some wet weather, some heavy rain about for South West England and South
01:06Wales into Northern Ireland during Thursday morning.
01:08Rumbles of thunder here and there, particularly towards the south west.
01:11The whole system moves its way north eastwards, so some heavy showers pushing through the rest
01:15of England into southern Scotland.
01:17Dryer to the north east of Scotland.
01:19Fairly windy across the UK, particularly in the west early on, with some strong gusts around
01:24coasts and hills.
01:26And where you've got the wet weather, of course, it's going to feel unpleasant.
01:30But where we do have some breaks in the showery rain and some sunshine coming through, really
01:34quite warm and humid.
01:36Temperatures up to 27, perhaps 28 Celsius in places.
01:40That humidity making it feel warm across the country, even if temperatures aren't anything
01:44special in some places.
01:47Now the heavy rain, and by this stage it's mostly just heavy rain rather than the thunderstorms,
01:52pushes into Scotland, Northern England, Northern Ireland through the night.
01:55And then it tends to peel away, ease off, perhaps some further heavy showers coming into the south
02:00west later.
02:01However, for many it's a drier interlude as we start off Friday.
02:05A muggy night for sleeping with that higher humidity temperatures in many spots, not dropping
02:10below the mid-teens.
02:12And it's going to stay breezy in places as well.
02:15But actually, the temperatures peak on Friday.
02:19The humidity peaks, particularly in the east of the UK, up to 29 Celsius.
02:25That would equal the highest temperature of the year so far, recorded on the 1st of May.
02:29Perhaps 30 Celsius in one or two spots of East Anglia.
02:34But with that heat and the rising humidity and that approaching low pressure, well, the biggest
02:39storms are still to come.
02:41And they may well originate later Friday over parts of northern France.
02:46Before that happens, the odd heavy downpour or thunderstorm could occur through Friday.
02:51But actually, Friday itself is mostly dry with sunny spells and, like I say, feeling hot and humid.
02:57Then it's really late afternoon that we'll start to see the first signs of these imported thunderstorms
03:04coming up through the channel.
03:06As always with this sort of thing, it's difficult to predict entirely what will happen with these
03:10things as they develop over France during the afternoon and start to migrate northeastwards.
03:17But it looks most likely that it's the southeastern quarter of the UK, East Anglia and the southeast of England,
03:23where we'll see the biggest impacts from thunderstorms.
03:26We're talking predominantly during the hours of darkness on Friday night, Friday evening, really,
03:31before the sun goes down and then overnight.
03:33We're talking torrential rainfall, more than 50 millimetres in just a few hours.
03:38Hail, gusty winds and, of course, frequent lightning.
03:42Not affecting everywhere in this region.
03:45But this, where we've got a yellow thunderstorm warning,
03:48is the area at highest risk from impacts from those sorts of elements.
03:54Torrential rain, hail, gusty winds and frequent lightning.
03:58That doesn't rule out getting some showers and thunderstorms elsewhere across the UK
04:02because, of course, there will be some overnight and some showery rain moving into the west
04:06by the start of Saturday as well because of this frontal system.
04:10But the focus during Saturday, as the dip in the jet stream starts to cross the UK
04:16and these weather systems move north-eastwards,
04:18the focus will be more towards the north than the west.
04:21Certainly lots of showers or longer spells of heavy rain around first thing Saturday.
04:25We've got our initial batch of thunderstorms clearing from the south-east,
04:28but further heavy spells of rain into parts of central and southern Scotland,
04:32northern Ireland, northern England, parts of Wales.
04:35Further south and south-east, yeah, scattered heavy showers,
04:38but also some sunny spells breaking through
04:40and western Scotland most likely staying dry with some sunshine.
04:43But you can see the extent of the heavy rain across the UK.
04:47Again, hit and miss.
04:48Not everyone will catch some of these very lively downpours,
04:52but where they do occur, they could be impactful.
04:55It's going to feel a bit cooler, a little less humid,
04:58those thunderstorms having cleared the air,
04:59but still some warmth towards the east of England, 25, 26 Celsius.
05:03Also certainly fresher coming into the west
05:07as the Atlantic influence returns rather than Southerlies.
05:11We've got Westerlies, or at least a form of Westerlies,
05:15returning for Saturday night and into Sunday.
05:19Still some showery rain around on Sunday morning,
05:21but generally the weather is starting to become a little more settled in some shape or form.
05:30A lot of cloud and a fresher start to Sunday,
05:33but by the time we get to Sunday afternoon, actually,
05:36much of England or Wales is mostly dry,
05:38some sunshine coming through,
05:41some patchy cloud there for the north of England,
05:43mainly over the Pennines,
05:44and the more persistent rain affecting parts of Scotland,
05:47particularly central and western areas.
05:50And you can see how the temperatures are back towards average for the time of year.
05:53We're talking about low to mid-20s in the south
05:55and mid-to-high teens further north.
05:59And then if we zoom out,
06:01you can see that we've got some weather systems moving through later Sunday,
06:05but these are weak systems because they're running in on top of an area of high pressure.
06:10And this high pressure building across the south of the UK
06:13and shifting the jet stream a bit further north once again.
06:18And that really sets the theme for the rest of next week.
06:21This, for Tuesday the 17th of June,
06:24is the most likely weather pattern when we run the computer models many, many times.
06:29This comes out as the most likely weather pattern for that Tuesday.
06:33And it shows high pressure near the Azores,
06:36this lovely group of islands just to the west of Portugal,
06:41extending its influence towards the UK,
06:44an extension of the Azores High, in other words,
06:47shifting weather systems further north
06:49and keeping these blue colours, this rainfall,
06:52mostly across northern and western Scotland,
06:54where it will be breezy at times.
06:56And there'll be perhaps some heavy rain over western hills.
06:59But otherwise, for much of the UK,
07:00with that high pressure building in,
07:02it's drier and it's more settled.
07:04Now, if you think 35% chance of that weather pattern occurring
07:07sounds quite low,
07:09well, there are other weather patterns that have another,
07:15that are almost as likely to occur that look very similar to it.
07:20So, this is the most likely extension of the Azores High.
07:23Another, the second most likely weather pattern is high pressure over the south of the UK.
07:28Very similar in flavour, really.
07:29And another one there on the bottom left of the screen,
07:33high pressure just to the west of the UK.
07:34So, yeah, that's the most likely.
07:37But there are other flavours of high pressure that are coming through.
07:41And all these different types of weather patterns are coloured
07:43in different colours on this probability plot
07:45that goes out for the next two weeks.
07:47But, essentially,
07:49the reds, oranges and yellows
07:51represent weather patterns
07:52where high pressure is close to the UK.
07:54They're just different positions of that high pressure.
07:57But, as you can see,
07:58that's the favoured scenario
08:01going out to the next two weeks.
08:02It's higher pressure close to the UK
08:04rather than these blues,
08:06which is lower pressure close to the UK.
08:07Although, the predominant blue colour that's coming through
08:10is northwesterly winds.
08:13And that's just where the high pressure
08:15has just sunk a bit further to the southwest
08:17to allow a bit more of a northwesterly to come through.
08:20So, even that's not that different
08:22to what we're expecting throughout next week.
08:25And that is, if we go to Thursday,
08:28the high pressure to the south,
08:29to ebb and flow, it's likely to occasionally cover
08:33much of the UK,
08:35like this weather pattern here on the bottom left,
08:38the whole of the UK affected by that high pressure,
08:40or perhaps heading slightly further north,
08:43as per this pattern.
08:44But the most likely pattern remains.
08:46High pressure ridging across the south,
08:48keeping weather systems into the north,
08:50but mostly these are weak systems.
08:53And Saturday, the 21st of June,
08:56similar again.
08:57The summer solstice, high pressure ridging towards the UK.
09:00Most places dry,
09:02but other weather patterns are coming through in the modelling.
09:06Not that different to the main, most likely pattern.
09:10So, yeah, there's lots of different colours
09:13on this chart for the next two weeks,
09:15but there is one significant theme coming through.
09:19These colours, the different colours,
09:21don't necessarily mean that we don't have a clue what's going on.
09:24We do have a strong clue what's going on.
09:27All that these colours represent
09:30are different positions of the high pressure
09:32because we're expecting it to ebb and flow
09:35across the UK throughout next week.
09:37It's just uncertainty about which days
09:39we'll see the different positions of that high pressure.
09:42And just to hammer home the point,
09:44this is the pressure anomaly from the European modelling
09:47and it shows throughout next week,
09:50averaged for the whole week
09:51and averaged compared with the usual position of high pressure,
09:56much higher than normal pressure
09:57is expected across the UK,
10:01particularly towards the south.
10:02And that would lead to higher than average temperatures.
10:07Now, those temperatures will vary
10:09depending on where you are in the UK
10:11because, of course, it's the south
10:12where we're more likely to see drier and sunnier weather
10:15and towards the north,
10:16it's more likely to be at times changeable.
10:19This shows the temperature trend by day.
10:21Those are the red boxes.
10:22And by night, those are the blue boxes
10:23compared with the average for the time of year.
10:25That's the red and the blue lines
10:27for the day and night temperatures.
10:28The south is represented by this plot
10:30and the north represented by this plot.
10:32Just to show you the peak of the temperatures
10:35for the next two weeks
10:35is actually this coming Friday for the south.
10:39And then we've got this drop-off
10:40as the cooler air returns
10:41back to average for the weekend.
10:43But then this steady climb in temperatures,
10:45although the uncertainty,
10:47the spread in these temperatures
10:48gets bigger through the week.
10:50So building temperatures,
10:51we're expecting the mid to high 20s
10:54rather than the 30s
10:55across some southern and southeastern parts
10:58through next week.
10:59Meanwhile, northern areas,
11:01this is representative of somewhere in central Scotland,
11:05closer to average to next week,
11:07but perhaps an increase towards the very end of the week.
11:12So, yeah, it's going to turn warmer
11:14as higher pressure builds in.
11:16But don't expect a return to that widespread
11:18and prolonged spring sunshine
11:20because there will be some weak systems
11:22coming into the north at times,
11:23some cloud, rain and breezes
11:25across Scotland in particular.
11:27And perhaps some of those weak systems
11:29could bring a bit more cloud
11:30elsewhere across the UK.
11:31However, on balance,
11:34through next week,
11:35it's going to be warmer
11:36and more settled
11:37compared with the first 10 days of June,
11:41especially across the south.
11:42No heat wave expected,
11:44but certainly a quieter spell
11:47after the thunderstorms
11:49of the next few days.
11:51But, of course,
11:51that's the most significant weather coming up
11:54and we'll keep updated
11:55on all the details
11:56of those thunderstorms
11:58right here through our YouTube channel.
12:00Bye-bye.
12:01Bye-bye.
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