10 Day Trend 29/01/2025 – A change as we head into February - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 29/01/2025.  High pressure builds as we go to February but there could still be some wet and windy weather in the northwest.  Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Honor Criswick.

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to this week's 10-day trend. It's felt like the beginning of the year has

00:05been largely wet and windy, but a change is on its way. It's not going to be straight

00:09away and it's not quite going to be everywhere. To start off though, let's take a look at

00:14the bigger picture. So for the beginning of the week, it's largely been low pressure dominating

00:18the weather. There's been lots of dry weather around here on Wednesday, but lots of wet

00:22and windy weather as a result of this area of low pressure just to the south, bringing

00:25quite a wet day across Channel Islands and southern counties. But once that drifts away,

00:31that does allow a ridge of high pressure to stretch across the country. So that means

00:34Thursday is actually going to be largely dry and settled, lots of sunshine around. They

00:39can't rule out a few pesky showers, particularly around coastal areas of the north. I'm afraid

00:44this ridge of high pressure is fairly brief though. We've still got a good cold plume

00:48stretching across parts of North America and that's really driving our jet stream as it

00:54meanders into the Atlantic, largely moving northwards, so dragging areas of low pressure

00:59towards Greenland and Iceland. But that does still allow them to sweep in some frontal

01:03systems, particularly to the northwest of the country, where it's largely going to be

01:06wet and windy towards the end of the week. And then we almost end up with a bit of a

01:11battleground between this wet and windy weather towards the northwest. That's moving up against

01:15this area of high pressure down towards the southeast. And then as we head into February,

01:22that really makes a difference as to what's going to happen with our weather. It really

01:26depends on this location of the high pressure. And it could be the difference between something

01:29quite cold compared to something above average for the time of year. More on that in a moment

01:35though. Firstly, let's take a look at Thursday. So as that ridge of high pressure builds,

01:40that means there's going to be plenty of clear skies overnight. So a chilly night ahead,

01:44likely to see quite a widespread frost. Also some icy stretches, particularly across Northern

01:48Ireland and parts of Scotland. So do take care if you're out and about during the early

01:52hours of the morning. But it should brighten up nicely through the course of the day. Plenty

01:56of sunshine and dry weather. As I said earlier, they can't rule out a few showers, particularly

02:01towards the northeast of Scotland. Quite a brisk breeze here, too. So that's really going

02:05to take the edge off the temperatures here. Also, some showers merging into longer spells

02:09of rain across parts of Shetland. Also, the odd shower around northwestern coasts of Scotland,

02:15northwestern parts of England and northern parts of Wales, too. But for the most part,

02:18a dry day, plenty of sunshine around and temperatures around about average for the

02:22time of year. But as I say, perhaps feeling just a little bit chillier to the northeast

02:26of Scotland. Then behind me, you can see this frontal system edging its way in from the

02:32west. By the time we reach Friday morning, that slowly shifted its way towards the southeast.

02:36So it's going to be quite a wet start, particularly across parts of the south, central parts of

02:41England, also parts of Lincolnshire and Yorkshire can see quite a wet start. This will eventually

02:46drift its way further southeastwards, affecting parts of East Anglia, Sussex and Kent, parts

02:51of the southeast through the course of the morning. But behind it, it's still going to

02:55leave plenty of clouds, still even some odd spots of drizzle, particularly around hilly

03:00areas. But it's not all doom and gloom. We should also see some brighter weather, particularly

03:05across Northern Ireland, northern and northeastern parts of Scotland, also southern parts of

03:09Wales. Devon and Cornwall should start to see some sunshine by the time we reach the

03:13afternoon temperatures once again around about average for the time of year, perhaps

03:17not something slightly milder just to the southwest. Now, once again, you can see behind

03:22me another frontal system. So another area of cloud and rain starting to edge its way

03:27in from the west. But the difference is this time this one doesn't move its way too far

03:31inland. That's as it's pushing up against that area of high pressure that showed you

03:34earlier towards the southeast. Still, though, it is going to bring some thicker areas of

03:39cloud, perhaps even some rain just edging into western parts of Scotland and some fairly

03:43blustery winds as it moves into the northwest, too. But elsewhere, it should be largely dry.

03:48There is still going to be plenty of cloud around, so quite a murky start to the day.

03:52That's away from the southeast, though we could see a fair amount of sunshine here that

03:55will build through the course of the day. And we could also see the cloud break up at

03:59times, giving some brighter spells. And it is going to be largely dry, though that frontal

04:03system still continues to slowly edge its way in from the west and turning very blustery

04:07here, too. It's also bringing in some slightly milder air for western parts of Scotland,

04:12Northern Ireland, but elsewhere, once again, those temperatures around about average. Then

04:18as we head into the second half of the weekend, it does still move its way southeastwards.

04:24This is the same frontal system. So once again, quite a wet start across parts of Scotland,

04:29northwestern parts of England and Wales and parts of the very far southeast. This rain

04:32could be a little bit heavy at times, too, as it edges its way inwards. Also, once again,

04:36those very blustery winds moving through a chance we could even see some gales across

04:40the far northwest of Scotland. Once again, slowly trying to move its way towards the

04:45southeast, but it doesn't really move very far as it pushes up against the high pressure.

04:50So it rather stalls across northwestern parts of England and Wales. But the rain largely

04:55starting to fizzle out as it moves its way southeastward. So once again, some drips and

04:59drabs of rain and drizzle, but largely just an area of cloud. But to the far northwest

05:04away from this system, once again, things should start to brighten up during the course

05:07of the afternoon across Northern Ireland, western parts of Wales. But still, once again,

05:11very blustery here. And also, once again, across parts of East Anglia, Sussex and Kent,

05:16we could start to see some brighter weather before that frontal system moves through.

05:20Temperatures once again around about average, but likely feeling a little bit chillier under

05:23those cloudier skies. Then what about after that? Well, the frontal system I just showed

05:29you eventually moves its way towards the southeast. And then once again, we start to

05:34see this bit of a battleground between the northwest system, wet and windy weather moving

05:38in here, battling up against this area of high pressure across central and southern

05:42parts of the UK. So it's sort of a twist between low pressure and high pressure. But which

05:47one wins out? Well, taking a look at the stacked bar chart here, we can see more blue colours

05:53at the start of the period. That's a flavour of low pressure of some sort. And then as

05:58we head further into February, we can see more of these reds and these yellows and that

06:02indicates high pressure dominating. But as I say, it does really depend on whereabouts

06:07the high pressure sits and what kind of weather conditions we'll see. So it could look something

06:12like this by the time we reach Wednesday. So high pressure largely sitting to the south.

06:16So once again, lots of fine and dry weather across central and southern parts of the UK.

06:21But I'm afraid it's a fairly cold high. So we could see some pockets of frost, even some

06:25fog where we see the more settled conditions. And across the far northwest, that's once

06:30again where we've drawn the short straw, some wet and windy weather also likely here across

06:35the northwest of Scotland, perhaps northwestern parts of Northern Ireland. Then as we head

06:41towards the end of next week, as I say, it's really dependent on whereabouts that high

06:45pressure sits. Now, this is the most favoured solution. So once again, that area of high

06:50pressure staying to the south of the UK. So that means it is going to be wet and windy

06:54to the northwest, but still seeing something slightly milder here across southern and central

06:59parts of the UK. Temperatures around about average, if not slightly below. But it is

07:04going to be largely settled. It doesn't mean glorious sunshine throughout the whole throughout

07:09the whole time, but it should be largely dry away from the far northwest. There's also

07:15another option, not the favoured solution, I might add, but that's with an area of high

07:20pressure over Scandinavia and that drags in some easterly winds. So that means at this

07:26time of the year, quite cold conditions, perhaps even some flurries of snow if we see any showers

07:31move through. As I say, it's not the favoured solution, but there is a chance we could see

07:36something colder on the cards as we head into the first week of February. As I say, it's

07:42not the favoured solution. At the moment, it does look like high pressure sat to the

07:45south, so something slightly milder, but perhaps below average across central and southern

07:50parts of the UK. And there's also another solution, 9% chance of that area of high pressure

07:55slightly further south. So that's going to be dragging in the wet and windy weather across

08:00a more widespread area of the UK and also something slightly milder. But as I say, as

08:04it stands, it looks like the area of high pressure to the south. So milder, yes, across

08:09the northwest, wet and windy here, but largely settled across the south. As I say, could

08:15still be a fair amount of cloud around, some fog and also some frost at times too. So high

08:20pressure building in for February, yes, but as I say, it's not going to be quite everywhere.

08:26For day-to-day updates, if you haven't already, don't forget you can subscribe to our YouTube

08:30channel. Otherwise, that's it from me. Bye bye.

10 Day Trend 29/01/2025 – A change as we head into February

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