10 Day Trend 21/05/2025 – Unsettled for the bank holiday weekend - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 21/05/2025.   After a dry Spring, rain is on its way. Just in time for the bank holiday weekend and half term.  Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Honor Criswick.

Transcript

00:00Hello there. This 10-day trend brings us to the end of May, also to the end of meteorological

00:05spring. And after a very dry season, a change is on its way. But for tomorrow afternoon,

00:11many aren't going to really see much change at all. It's still going to be largely dry,

00:15still lots of sunshine around, particularly across Scotland, northern parts of England.

00:19Eventually, we'll see some more blue skies across central areas once this area of cloud

00:23sinks southwards. But that means it will gradually turn cloudier through the course of the day

00:27across the south, perhaps thick enough to produce the odd shower. But the main risk

00:31of showers is going to be across northeastern areas, particularly across the northeast of

00:35Scotland, where we could see the odd shower or two. And quite breezy here. That's going

00:39to add on to the chill. But for most areas, it is going to feel that little bit cooler,

00:44perhaps four to five degrees cooler in some parts if you compare it to this afternoon.

00:49Then after that, we start to see a change. And in order to describe this change, I thought

00:53we take a look at the bigger picture and actually going to start off by sweeping over, taking

00:58a look at areas across the US. So we've seen some very heavy showers and thunderstorms all

01:03being fuelled by areas of low pressure. And what we'll see is these areas of low pressure

01:08just to the east of the US will be swept up by our jet stream a little bit weaker this

01:12time of year, but still enough fuel to power some areas of low pressure as they push their

01:16way eastwards across the Atlantic. And we'll start to see this on Saturday, an area of low

01:21pressure just to the east of Iceland, dragging in some frontal systems. So quite a wet day

01:27on offer as we head into Saturday. Then it's all eyes on this area of low pressure here being

01:32swept up once again by the jet stream, moving into what we call the left jet exit of that

01:37jet stream. And it sits to the north of the country, once again dragging in some unsettled

01:42weather. But also notice a fair few isobars on that chart too. So bringing in some quite

01:46windy weather at times as well.

01:48Though there are some model differences at exactly how deep this area of low pressure

01:52is going to be and its exact location as well. And at the moment, to be honest, the preferred

01:56solution is that this area of low pressure will be slightly situated further north. So

02:01yes, it's going to bring in some breezy weather, particularly across the northwest. Also some

02:05wet weather, but it might not perhaps be quite a deep area of low pressure as these graphics

02:09might suggest.

02:11Nevertheless, once that moves through, we still remain in this westerly type. So it's still a chance

02:17of some rain moving in from the west. It's likely Monday for the bank holiday, it'll be a mix

02:22of sunny spells and showers. There's still plenty of ice bars on that chart, so it's still quite

02:26breezy. And also once again, just keeping an eye on this feature to the west, which may

02:30bring some longer spells of rain. But once again, something we need to keep an eye on, still

02:33fairly low confidence at this stage.

02:35But as we move forward, as we take a look at our zonal trend, well, it's still very blue,

02:42and that's indication of a westerly flow of air. So there's still that chance, even over

02:46the next couple of weeks, that we'll see that westerly flow of air dragging in frontal systems

02:51at times. And we'll begin to see this on Friday. Now, once again, many areas are going to be

02:57largely dry. Much of England, Wales, Scotland, still plenty of sunshine, still the risk of the

03:02old shower across the very far northeast of Scotland. But it's really Northern Ireland,

03:06the far west of Scotland, where we'll begin to see that change. More cloud pushing in here,

03:10outbreaks of rain eventually later turning a little bit heavier. But notice those temperatures,

03:15particularly across central and southern parts, a degree or two up compared to Thursday. So

03:19still feeling warm in the sunshine, despite it being a little bit breezier, but still along

03:24those eastern coasts, that bit chillier here.

03:27Then after this, once again, low pressure taking hold, this area of low pressure, which I noticed

03:34earlier, just to the east of Iceland. Once again, dragging in some frontal systems, moving

03:39their way eastwards through on Wednesday. So a very damp start for most, if not quite cloudy

03:45across Saturday morning. Most areas are going to see some rain at some point, and it may even

03:50be heavy at times, particularly across the west, and it's going to be a much breezier day

03:54too. So a very different feel to the day for the beginning of the weekend. But notice temperatures

03:59still aren't super low. Highs are reaching around 20 to 21 degrees Celsius across central

04:04and southern parts, but it's certainly going to feel a lot differently compared to the last

04:09week or so.

04:11Then after that, still more rain to come. As I mentioned earlier, we still just need to

04:15keep an eye on the exact location of this area of low pressure. But nevertheless, it does

04:19drag in another cold front, so more cloud, also more rain. Still plenty of isobars on that chart

04:25too, so still feeling very breezy even as we reach into Sunday. So once again, there is still

04:31some more wet weather on the cards, particularly this time across the far north and northwest of

04:35Scotland, turning heavy at times here, turning quite windy. A chance we could see some coastal

04:41gales, but the exact location of where those will be will depend on whereabouts the area of low

04:45pressure lies. But it's not going to be a total washout. There's still going to be some dry

04:49weather, particularly across central and southern parts. Yes, it's still going to be a little bit

04:54breezy, but it should be mostly dry and temperatures still in the high teens, low 20s. So still feeling

04:59pleasant in sheltered spots.

05:02Then eventually we say goodbye to that area of low pressure across the far north. But notice

05:07still lots of eyes bars, so it's still going to be breezy on Monday. As I've mentioned,

05:12it's likely to be a day of sunshine and showers, perhaps some longer spells of rain,

05:17but that's still something to watch. But most of the rainfall, particularly from Friday to Sunday,

05:22as we can see from our Met Office model here, where we see those reds and orange colours here

05:27across the northwest, that's where we're likely to see most of the rainfall. So over the next few days,

05:32around 50 to 60 millimetres of rain possible. And that's also agreed by across our European model

05:38and also our American model. So yes, there is more rain to come. A little bit disappointing,

05:43I suppose, for the bank holiday weekend, but it is long overdue. It's been a very dry spring indeed.

05:49So overall, for the bank holiday weekend, it is going to be changeable and unsettled at times,

05:54but the wettest of the weather across the northwest, feeling a bit cooler here, but it's still mostly warm

06:00across the east, where we're most likely to still see some brighter, if not quite sunny, interludes.

06:05Then how about after that? Well, the next two weeks, taking a look at our pressure trend,

06:12well, it's quite mixed. We see a range of colours from blues to greens to reds,

06:17all indicating whether we'll see high pressure, so the red colours, or low pressure, which are the

06:22blue colours. So this indicates it is still going to be quite changeable. It's likely into next week,

06:27we'll still see some frontal systems moving in off that westerly flow, but at times we'll also see

06:32ridges of high pressure. So we'll see a mix of rain, but also some drier and brighter interludes,

06:37but still fairly low confidence as to when about that rain will be and whereabouts it will occur.

06:43And if we take a look at our probability plot, we can see actually areas of low pressure,

06:48so indicated by the blue colours. As we head further into the end of May and through into the beginning

06:53of June, well, the chances do eventually decrease. And we see more of these reds and these yellows

07:01and these orange colours as we head towards the end of May and into the beginning of June. So an

07:05indication that high pressure will eventually build back through, but a chance that might not

07:10really be until the middle part of June, but still very early to say. Overall though, into next week,

07:17it's likely that we'll see a pattern similar to this. So high pressure just about building back in

07:22across the south, so giving some drier and brighter interludes, but still a chance of some wet weather

07:27moving its way in through the west and northwest. But of course, for more updates on that, you can

07:33subscribe to our YouTube channel where we'll update you daily, or we also have our weather

07:38studio live at 12.15 on YouTube every Friday.

10 Day Trend 21/05/2025 – Unsettled for the bank holiday weekend

Category

Transcript

Recommended