This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 25/06/2025. Another heatwave in places this weekend but not for all. Most areas will have sunny spells next week. Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Deakin
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00:00Welcome along to the Met Office 10-Day Trend. Another spell of heat is on the way, but unlike the last heat wave, this one won't be as widespread.
00:10Let's take a look at the wider picture. First of all, this is the position of the jet stream across the Atlantic in a fairly standard west to east flow, kind of breaking down across the UK.
00:22But I'm more interested in what's going on the other side of the pond and across North America. The jet stream just getting a bit of power on, a bit of a wriggle on, a bit of a push here, some stronger winds high in the sky, remember, just push the jet stream south, buckling it, if you like.
00:38And this generates what we call a trough, this dip in the jet stream. And that translates across the UK as the jets, by the time we get to Sunday and Monday, in this more north-south orientation rather than east-west.
00:52And what that means is that as high pressure topples to the east, building under this ridge, we are likely to tap into a bit more heat.
01:00If we rewind back to Saturday, watch this high pressure building up from the south and then drifting away to the east.
01:07And there's the hot air pushing its way northwards through Sunday and Monday. Monday likely to be the peak of the heat.
01:14But notice there's a cold front lurking out west and cooler air isn't far away.
01:19That really looks like pushing as we're going through into next week.
01:23More on that in a moment, of course. Let's get back to the shorter term.
01:26No real sign of heatwave from Thursday morning with weather fronts crossing the country, a lot of cloud and some outbreaks of rain.
01:33It will be quite a warm and humid start across the south for sure.
01:37All this cloud and the outbreaks of rain will transfer from west to east.
01:41And many places brightening up quite nicely on Thursday.
01:44Good spells of sunshine coming through.
01:45Still quite warm, certainly across the Midlands and eastern England.
01:49It's not as hot as Wednesday, but temperatures easily again getting into the mid-20s.
01:53But it shouldn't feel quite as warm, quite as humid.
01:56Something a bit fresher arriving by the end of Thursday.
01:59Now, by the time we get to Thursday evening and overnight, we're looking out west.
02:03There's another weather system approaches and that could bring some quite heavy and persistent rain.
02:08Initially across Northern Ireland, but then spreading into Western Scotland.
02:10As we tick through Friday, that rain lingers here and also across northwest England, some heavy bursts of rain, the brighter colours there on the radar.
02:19So being pushed along by a fairly brisk wind, the winds will be picking up everywhere during Thursday and Friday,
02:24helping to push the rain up over the hills, push the cloud up over the hills, generating more rain.
02:28So we need to keep an eye on the rainfall totals building up as it stays pretty soggy in that northwestern corner during the course of Friday.
02:36So that's an area we'll be keeping a close eye on.
02:39That's being generated by the jet stream at this stage on Friday.
02:42It's starting to take that dip out in the Atlantic, pushing this first weather system up between the UK and Iceland.
02:49It's these weather fronts providing the wet weather on Friday.
02:53Now, by the time we get to Saturday, we're starting to see a bit of a separation between those weather fronts and the jet stream.
02:58This weather front, as it pushes southwards, bumping up against the high pressure, will kind of get wrung out a little bit.
03:04So it will be fizzling out a little bit.
03:07But it's still going to be a really important player, this weather front, into the weekend,
03:11because as a cold front, it marks the boundary between the very warm and humid air across England and Wales
03:17and the cooler and fresher conditions across northern parts of Scotland.
03:21So that weather front, as I said, will be the key player this weekend.
03:25Where it lies, it will be providing cloud and some outbreaks of rain.
03:28But as you can see, as it pushes southwards, the rain and drizzle likely to be kind of fizzling out somewhat.
03:33But it will mark that boundary.
03:35Quite a strong contrast in temperatures with East Anglia and the southeast getting close to 30 degrees Celsius,
03:41whereas the far northwest will be up to 14, 15 degrees with a fairly brisk wind across the western isles of Scotland.
03:48So how your day pans out on Saturday will really depend on the position of this weather front.
03:54It could be sitting across southern Scotland, northern Ireland.
03:56It could be sitting across northern England and north Wales.
03:59That representation I just showed you is the Met Office model.
04:03But we don't just look at one computer model.
04:05And certainly in the medium range forecast, we run the model many times, called an ensemble forecast.
04:12And this is the European ECMWF ensemble forecast.
04:16And it's called a spaghetti plot, for obvious reasons, showing the potential position.
04:21Every time we run a computer model, it gives a potential position of that weather front.
04:26Now, they're in quite good agreement.
04:27This is for Saturday night, midnight into Sunday morning.
04:31The Golden Line is where the European, the main model run, wants that weather front to be, sitting somewhere across northern England.
04:38You can see there's northern Scotland poking out southern England just down here.
04:42So the front's staying away from the extremes of the UK.
04:45But it could well be lying across southern Scotland, northern Ireland.
04:48It could be sitting further south across the Midlands and into parts of mid Wales.
04:52But a lot of the ensembles are in agreement, reasonable agreement, that it will be sitting across northern England and north Wales.
04:58But if you've got plans for the weekend, say the position of this weather front will be crucial.
05:02So do keep up to date with the forecast because there is a little bit of leeway into where it lies.
05:07And that will continue into Sunday as well.
05:09Still, the rain fizzling out, not a great deal on it.
05:12But some damp conditions, particularly as it pushes back further north, perhaps into parts of Northern Ireland.
05:17But still, crucially, that big temperature contrast and the heat building by this stage across the south.
05:23So more widely in South Wales, southwest England, temperatures into the mid-20s and likely to get over 30 degrees across parts of eastern England on Sunday, a hot, humid day here.
05:34Whereas again, across northern Scotland, we're only talking temperatures in the low teens with a fairly brisk wind.
05:40And obviously, we've still got that weather front around, providing some cloud and outbreaks of rain.
05:44Now, that does finally shimmy away, it looks like, to the north on Monday.
05:47But then this next weather front is approaching.
05:51And if you remember from the start, that one tucked behind it has some cooler air to come in from the Atlantic.
05:56We're still ahead of it, though, for most places on Monday.
05:59And that's likely to be the peak of the heat across central and eastern England.
06:03Temperatures over 30 degrees, 32, 33 degrees possible across parts of southeast England.
06:09The London area up towards Cambridge, the usual suspects for the highest temperatures.
06:14Not as hot elsewhere, but still a bit warmer on Monday for Scotland and Northern Ireland compared to Sunday as that warmer air is finally getting in here.
06:23But it's not likely to last too long because that cold front is expected to move across the country during Monday night and into Tuesday.
06:31The big question mark is how quickly it pushes in, how quickly it clears the heat.
06:36Because there are some models that keep the heat across East Anglia and the southeast.
06:41Let's show you another spaghetti plot, again, from the European model when we run the ensembles, run it many, many times.
06:48It's even harder to see the UK here.
06:50So, again, let's just zoom in.
06:52There's northwest Scotland.
06:54East Anglia is under here somewhere.
06:56The green line, again, is that main run from the European model, which is trying to clear it away.
07:03But notice more of the ensembles are holding it back a little bit more.
07:07The consensus would be a little bit further back, which would keep the heat and the warmth for one more day across parts of East Anglia and the southeast.
07:14So we could still get over 30 degrees across that southeastern corner on Tuesday.
07:18It just depends on the speed of that weather front, how quickly it clears away.
07:23But it is likely to clear away, and for the second half of next week, it shouldn't be as hot.
07:29What is going to happen through next week?
07:31Well, the probability plot here showing that, well, actually, higher pressure is likely Wednesday and Thursday.
07:38Greater than 50% of these orangey-brown colors, which is a more blocking, more steady weather pattern.
07:45With the yellows, the most likely scenario, the Azores high extending up across the country.
07:50Quite a strong suggestion there, after a messy start to the week, that higher pressure is more likely through the second half of next week.
07:59And that is borne out by the individual days.
08:02And the three most likely scenarios for Wednesday and next week all have anticyclone in the title.
08:09Anticyclone means high pressure, whether it's sitting just to the west of the UK, extending across us directly or sitting down to the southwest.
08:15And if we throw flow through into Thursday and Friday, again, they're all dominated by high pressure sitting somewhere close to the UK.
08:24Now, the exact type of weather that we see where you are will depend on the flow and the exact position of this high.
08:30But generally speaking, with high pressure close to the UK Thursday, Friday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday next week, it is likely to stay dry.
08:39And we should have lost that heat, that cold front pushing its way away.
08:42I say should have lost that heat, but it isn't too far away.
08:45This is from the deterministic, the main run of the European Model 4 next Wednesday.
08:49Notice the hot weather isn't too far away, still across France.
08:52It wouldn't take much for that to edge further north and tap into it again across the south.
08:57But generally speaking, if we start next week, pretty hot.
09:01It's very warm, certainly for many, hot in some places and quite humid.
09:05Things are going to turn a little cooler, but actually still only back to or probably even still slightly above average for the time of year.
09:12So still plenty of warmth.
09:13And actually, it looks like with high pressure nearby, there should be plenty of fine and sunny weather, pleasant summer weather as we head into the last part of June and early part of July.
09:24As always, for those day-to-day details, do keep up to date by following us on social media.
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