10 Day Trend 14/05/2025 – Some signs of rain? - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 14/05/2025.   It's been an exceptionally dry, sunny and warm May so far but there is now a sign of a change by the end of May.   Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend.

00:03It has been an exceptional spring so far, exceptionally dry, exceptionally sunny and

00:07exceptionally warm thanks to prolonged periods of high pressure.

00:12Now, there are signs that that will all change for the last week of spring.

00:19More on that in a moment.

00:20But before that happens, we continue to see a prolonged area of high pressure.

00:25Now we did have a thundery interlude earlier in the week thanks to this area of low pressure

00:29which popped up for a bit, but that's now moving away having given some hit and miss thundery

00:34downpours.

00:35Some places stayed entirely dry and it is going to be almost entirely dry for a long time to

00:42come because this high pressure is now setting up shop just across northern parts of the UK.

00:48And watch what happens Wednesday through to Thursday into Friday and the weekend that high

00:54pressure simply stays where it is.

00:57It's not going anywhere for an entire week if not a little longer.

01:02It's deflecting areas of low pressure into Iberia and areas of low pressure are just

01:07remaining across the mid-Atlantic.

01:09So that high pressure is keeping weather systems away from the UK at least until the middle of

01:15next week.

01:16And that means it's going to stay dry.

01:19It doesn't mean it's going to stay sunny and warm everywhere because we've got an easterly

01:23wind thanks to that high pressure and that easterly wind is pulling in from time to time

01:27areas of cloud, fret, ha into eastern parts of the UK.

01:32And you can see the difference in temperatures that easterly wind will make.

01:36Twelve to fifteen Celsius on the east coast of Scotland and England.

01:41Whereas come inland where we've got some sunshine we're into the high teens and low twenties.

01:47And very little changes day to day regionally things will change.

01:53The cloud will come and go across North Sea coasts and sometimes it will creep further

01:57inland to affect say parts of the Midlands and southern England, East Wales perhaps.

02:01But it will ebb and flow and by day it will tend to burn back to the immediate coast over

02:08the next few days.

02:09So Friday into Saturday and Sunday we'll see cloudy conditions to start off with across

02:14some central and eastern parts of England, perhaps into Wales.

02:18But by the afternoon it's really that North Sea coast where we'll see the cloud persist.

02:23Mostly staying away from much of Scotland where it will be largely sunny.

02:26Certainly Northern Ireland clear blue skies, much of Wales by the afternoons and the southwest

02:31sunny skies and as a result 22, 23 Celsius.

02:35But always those temperatures limited on the east coast.

02:39Going to the weekend and it's more of the same.

02:41Perhaps a lot of cloud to begin things.

02:43It burns back to the east coast by the afternoon.

02:46Temperatures limited towards the east.

02:4822, 23 where we've got sunnier skies towards the west of the UK,

02:52including Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Western England and Wales.

02:56That cloud in the east could always give a few spots of drizzle.

02:59Otherwise it's almost entirely dry.

03:01The same goes for Sunday.

03:03We've still got that wind coming from the North Sea.

03:05It's going to slightly change direction from day to day.

03:08That will influence where we see the cloudier conditions.

03:11For example, northern Scotland, the northeast of Scotland, perhaps into eastern England.

03:16And the cloud will be fickle.

03:17It will come and go.

03:18It will break up from time to time.

03:19So I wouldn't take these graphics too literally.

03:21It's simply the case that it will be cooler and often cloudier and mistier towards the east.

03:26Sunniest skies elsewhere, warmest towards the west and the south.

03:30Whatever the temperature,

03:31if you've got the sunshine, it is very strong at this time of year.

03:34And so high UV levels are expected fairly widely away from the north of Scotland,

03:40where the sun does appear through the next few days.

03:43So if you're spending time outdoors, make sure you factor that in.

03:46Then let's go into the start of next week.

03:48Very little change at first.

03:50High pressure still dominating things towards the north and northwest of the UK.

03:55It slowly moves a little towards the northwest.

03:59But otherwise, Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday, it's very similar.

04:04In fact, it's not just the Met Office model simulation that is suggesting this.

04:10When we run the computer model lots of times and we look at other computer

04:14models, such as the European model and the American model, well, they're all saying the same

04:18sort of thing. And this is a summary of all those computer model runs.

04:22This is more than 250 computer model runs.

04:2469% of them place the high pressure to the northwest of the UK.

04:28A sizable minority place it somewhere slightly different,

04:31but they all keep high pressure near the UK.

04:33For Tuesday, the 20th of May, they keep things dry more of the same on Tuesday.

04:38And in fact, into Wednesday, this weather pattern here, high pressure to the north,

04:43is reflected by this dark red color.

04:46And this summarizes what the computer models, more than 250 of them,

04:51are saying for each day out to the next two weeks.

04:54The colors here represent different locations of high pressure and low pressure.

04:58And so what this is essentially saying is that up until the middle of next week,

05:03that situation where we've got high pressure to the north is almost exclusively the one

05:08that's being predicted by the computer models.

05:11Then we get to Thursday, Friday, and more especially into Saturday and Sunday.

05:15You'll notice these blues appearing.

05:17That's where we've got westerlies, north westerlies, south westerlies,

05:21essentially Atlantic lows returning.

05:23The dark reds get squeezed.

05:25High pressure to the north becomes much less likely.

05:29And the changeover seems to happen around Friday, Saturday.

05:32What does that look like?

05:33This is Saturday the 24th of May.

05:36The most likely top three weather patterns.

05:38A lot more uncertainty emerges.

05:40This is the most likely low pressure across south western parts of the UK.

05:45The blues indicate where there's expected to be above average rainfall for the time of year,

05:50across much of England and Wales.

05:52But these two are also coming through.

05:54This one here, the second most likely weather pattern.

05:57And it's got, again, above average rainfall across many parts of the UK, more towards the northwest,

06:02with low pressure centered over Scotland.

06:04And this one, we've got northwesterly winds.

06:06So uncertainty about where and how low pressure will arrive.

06:11But a lot of confidence now emerging that low pressure will indeed replace high pressure.

06:15This is what this chart summarizes.

06:18This shows, on the top, the most recent model simulations and the switchover,

06:24Thursday, Friday, more especially Saturday, of high pressure, which is red, to low pressure.

06:30But if you look back at previous model runs, going out to the last few days, out to the last Friday,

06:37and you'll see that date remains the same.

06:39The date in which the blues appear remains the same, Friday or Saturday, all the way out since last week.

06:46So the signal for low pressure arriving around the 23rd, 24th of May has been consistent.

06:52And that leads us to think that it's a reliable signal that we're going to see an end to high pressure

06:58dominating the weather over the UK.

07:01And these next couple of charts summarize that nicely as well.

07:04This is from the European model.

07:06And again, it's a summary of all the different computer model simulations from that model.

07:09And it shows that next week, higher than average pressure is expected to the north and northwest of

07:14the UK, certainly through the bulk of next week.

07:17But then, as we go into the following week, that gets replaced by low pressure sensed over the UK,

07:23just in time for the bank holiday weekend and half term for many children.

07:28Likewise, the precipitation pattern changes.

07:31This is next week drier than average,

07:33significantly drier than average across much of Northern Europe, including the UK.

07:37The week after though, wetter than average, this significant change as low pressure arrives.

07:42So actually, that last week of May could be wetter than average for the time of year,

07:48a significant turnaround in our weather patterns for the last week of spring,

07:53having seen high pressure dominate, having seen so much sunshine and so much dry weather.

07:59So a very significant change on the way.

08:02It may be welcome news if you're desperate for some rain.

08:05It may be unwelcome news if you've got holiday plans for the half term weekend.

08:09But of course, the details at the moment still need to be ironed out.

08:12It's still 10 days away.

08:13We'll keep you updated right here at the Met Office.

10 Day Trend 14/05/2025 – Some signs of rain?

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