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10 Day trend – Milder at first but could we see a cold snap next week? 29/01/20
Met Office
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14/10/2024
After a chilly start to the week temperatures are on the rise with changeable the best way to describe the weather into the weekend. Next week there’s a good chance that high pressure will dominate but could that bring a cold plunge from the Arctic?
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00:00
Welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend.
00:02
The next five or six days, fairly straightforward,
00:05
changeable, kind of sums it up.
00:07
Each day different, one day cloudy, one day dry.
00:10
The next day could see a little bit of rain.
00:12
The main themes, though, certainly
00:13
as we go through the rest of this week,
00:15
is a lot milder than the start of the week,
00:17
and often it's going to be fairly blustery, particularly
00:20
across Scotland.
00:21
There becomes more uncertainty as we go through the weekend,
00:25
and particularly into next week.
00:27
Uncertainty on one hand, but actually
00:29
one of the things we're pretty confident on
00:32
is that generally next week, pressure will be fairly high.
00:35
That means that spells of really wet and windy weather
00:37
are very unlikely.
00:38
But high pressures come in different shapes and sizes.
00:42
And if the high is in just the right position,
00:44
well, we could get something of a cold plunge,
00:47
a cold northerly wind bringing down air from the Arctic.
00:50
And we haven't seen that that often so far this winter.
00:54
But as I said, there is uncertainty,
00:57
and that cold plunge may not arrive at all
00:59
and if it does come, it may not last too long.
01:03
More on that in a moment.
01:04
First of all, let's look at the pressure pattern
01:06
into the early part of next week.
01:07
I talked about high pressure.
01:08
This is the chart for Monday, and it's this area of high
01:11
that we're expecting to topple in through next week.
01:14
But before we get there, let's rewind the clock.
01:16
And you can see over the next few days,
01:18
we're expecting lots of low pressure systems
01:20
to be drifting, particularly close to northern Britain,
01:23
all pushed in by a fairly active jet stream.
01:27
How this one interacts exactly with the jet stream
01:30
will impact Sunday's weather quite a bit,
01:32
but this is expected to bring a spell of rain
01:34
across the country.
01:36
As I said at the start, it will be turning a bit milder,
01:39
and that could be reflected by this chart here.
01:41
Yes, a chilly start to the week,
01:43
but gradually temperatures are now rising.
01:46
And so you can see the yellower colours there,
01:48
the milder air as these lows bring in that milder air
01:52
from the southwest over the rest of this week.
01:56
But as I said, the position and intensity
01:58
of this low on Sunday is open to doubt.
02:00
Saturday's weather looks reasonably straightforward,
02:03
a gusty, blustery day with showers,
02:06
particularly across the north.
02:07
Sunday's weather uncertainty really begins,
02:09
the timing of the wet weather.
02:11
Could be a chilly start,
02:13
and then we are expecting a spell of rain.
02:15
But how much rain and where it is, the wettest conditions,
02:18
is at this stage open to some uncertainty.
02:21
And this next chart kind of reflects that.
02:22
This is the amount of rainfall
02:24
we're expecting to see in Edinburgh.
02:27
This is a European model and the magenta lines there
02:29
is the main computer model run.
02:31
If you followed that,
02:32
you'd think that it would be a fairly dry day in Edinburgh.
02:35
But of course, we don't just run these computer models once,
02:38
they're run lots and lots of times.
02:40
And each of these blue dashed lines
02:42
is a different example or a different run.
02:45
We call this an ensemble forecast.
02:47
And you can see that a lot of those blue dashed lines
02:50
suggesting that we could see quite a bit of rain
02:52
in Edinburgh on Sunday.
02:54
So that is where the uncertainty begins.
02:57
After that, we are, as I said,
02:59
looking towards that area of high pressure,
03:01
slowly trying to topple in from the Atlantic.
03:04
But low pressure and isobars
03:06
continue to dominate into Monday.
03:07
So again, expect a showery day
03:10
and still fairly blustery conditions.
03:12
But here comes the high,
03:15
toppling in at some point into next week.
03:18
And the exact position of that will be crucial
03:21
in determining the type of weather we get.
03:23
But this chart does show that we are expecting
03:26
that pressure to be higher than normal next week.
03:29
Low pressure, the blue colours dominating
03:32
as we go through towards the weekend.
03:33
We've seen that on those pressure charts,
03:35
but look at this,
03:36
a strong signal of the pinks and the reds taking over,
03:39
which means anti-cyclonic conditions or high pressure
03:43
is the most likely scenario
03:45
from the middle part of next week.
03:47
But high pressures do take different shapes
03:50
and different sizes.
03:51
This again is the European model,
03:52
the main model run,
03:53
and it shows where it thinks the high pressure
03:55
is likely to be through the middle part of next week,
03:58
out to the West.
03:59
Now, if this scenario is true,
04:01
if you follow the isobars,
04:03
then they point all the way up to the Arctic
04:04
and that's really cold air
04:06
then driving south across the UK.
04:08
That will be a shock to the system
04:09
because we haven't really seen
04:11
these kind of northerly winds at all this winter.
04:14
They would bring sleet and snow showers with them as well.
04:18
But one of the other computer models,
04:20
the American model, the GFS model,
04:23
has high pressure still in control,
04:25
but this time the high now is down to the south of the UK,
04:28
a very different shape.
04:29
And so that would be a very different day.
04:31
Yes, it's high pressure, it's still largely dry,
04:34
but the wind's now coming in around the top of that ridge,
04:37
more in from the Atlantic.
04:38
So it wouldn't be anything like as cold.
04:40
The cold air you can see is still way to the north of the UK.
04:44
So all to play for really
04:45
with how the pressure pattern maps out next week.
04:49
And again, I'm just going to show the uncertainty here
04:51
with the projected temperature.
04:52
Again, this is for Edinburgh and showing that uncertainty.
04:56
The temperature, the date's going along the bottom,
04:58
bottom and here's the Y axis showing the temperature trend.
05:02
You can see here that we are expecting things
05:04
to turn milder.
05:05
The size of these nodules represents the uncertainty.
05:09
So those small nodules representing that,
05:12
we're pretty confident it's going to turn milder
05:14
over the next few days.
05:15
Temperature's slowly drifting back closer to average.
05:17
This is the average line here around the weekend.
05:20
But then look at how those blobs just get bigger and bigger
05:24
as we go through next week.
05:25
Again, just representing that uncertainty
05:28
in the computer models through next week.
05:31
We are pretty confident changeable conditions
05:33
will persist into the weekend.
05:34
Milder at first, there's just the potential
05:37
for the cold snap into next week.
05:39
Nothing unusual about that.
05:40
And again, this 10-day trend forecast
05:42
is just highlighting things that could happen,
05:44
things that we're looking at.
05:46
So we just wanted to flag that for now.
05:47
Make sure you stay up to date with the day-to-day details.
05:50
Best way to do that is to follow
05:52
the Met Office on social media.
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