10 Day Trend – Cold northerlies, but for how long? 01/05/19 - video Dailymotion

Met Office

A highly amplified jet stream will help to drag cold winds from north of Norway towards the UK for the start of the long weekend. Overnight frosts return and it will feel chilly in the wind, but there's some good news for those who have outdoor plans

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10 day trend. May has arrived, summer is not far

00:05away and of course we've got two bank holiday weekends coming up. So naturally the weather

00:09is about to turn much colder. A return of night time frosts into the weekend and even

00:15some white stuff just in a few locations. But it's not all bad news for the bank holiday

00:20weekend. More on that in a moment. The trend after the bank holiday weekend is that low

00:24pressure is more likely to influence our weather than high pressure. But that will

00:29mean different things depending on where you are. And of course May is famously a decent

00:34month of weather in the west of Scotland. Could that still be the case? Well, let's

00:39find out. Because actually May doesn't start off very well across northern and western

00:44Scotland. There will be a lot of cloud on Thursday, some rain. Elsewhere sunny spells

00:48but also some lively showers. Hail and thunder across central parts of Britain. Still quite

00:52warm in the south. Cold air pushing into the far north and that's because of developments

00:58over the states over the next couple of days. You can see on Wednesday some very severe

01:03thunderstorms developing across this area. Quite common actually at this time of year.

01:09But the hail and the tornadoes and the severe storms here are due to this area of very humid

01:15air pushing north across the states and helping to nudge the jet stream north as well. And

01:21of course what happens over here to the jet stream has ripple effects, has a consequence

01:27downstream. It then dives south and then it pushes north and then south again and that

01:32means that we are on the side of the jet stream that is likely to drag northerly winds across

01:38the UK for the end of this week. And really quite cold northerlies with the air coming

01:43all the way from Spitsbergen. And those deep blues then make their way across the UK for

01:49the end of the week. You can see Friday is the day of change with 17 still possible in

01:54the south but 7 further north. Cloud and rain in between. And with that colder air, those

02:00northerlies setting in for parts of Scotland, we could even see some sleet and snow coming

02:05through in some of the showers. And these will be showers and then they will affect

02:08north sea coasts for Saturday. And those showers will be quite lively. Hail and thunder a possibility

02:15for eastern counties of England. Still some of the white stuff coming through for parts

02:20of Scotland. But further west, actually, sunny spells. And temperatures, well, they don't

02:26look that cold. 13, 14 degrees possible in the sunnier spots. Single figures on the north

02:31sea coast. When you add the wind, it will feel cold. 4 or 5 degrees or even 2 in places.

02:40So cold wind through Saturday and then those winds fall a bit lighter on Saturday night

02:45which means a widespread frost to wake up to on Sunday. Gardeners, growers, farmers,

02:49beware of frosty or even a sharp frost in places as we start off on Sunday. Temperatures

02:56a couple of degrees below freezing in some of the colder spots. So what's the good news

03:01for the bank holiday weekend? Well, it's this. High pressure is building in for Sunday and

03:07into Monday. It's building in from the west. It will push any showers away and keep any

03:11rain confined to the north of Scotland which means that most places will have a dry and

03:14bright day on Sunday and the wind will be lighter which means that it won't feel quite

03:18as cold after that frosty start. And Monday is looking fairly similar. There will still

03:24be a lot of cloud in the sky as we head into bank holiday Monday, especially across northern

03:28Britain and a few showers are possible here and there. But it's not a washout. Many places

03:34will be dry and bright and like I say, the winds will be lighter so it's not going to

03:37feel as cold. Now, this is what it's looking like as we head into next week. We've got

03:41low pressure either side of us and this slither of high pressure giving us those mostly fine

03:46conditions for the start of next week. But things are brewing to the west of us over

03:52the Atlantic. The jet stream, this fast flowing current of air high in the sky, well it's

03:56going to start to bring areas of low pressure our way into the start of next week. There

04:01is a small chance that high pressure will remain somewhat influential through next week

04:05but the greater chance is that we'll see the jet stream start to become more active

04:11in this part of the Atlantic. So at relatively low latitudes and that means any low pressure

04:17systems it creates will be sent towards the south west of the UK. And you can see the

04:23difference quite clearly on this. It's basically just an illustration of whether we're likely

04:29to have high pressure or low pressure. More likely to have high pressure, red colours.

04:34More likely to have low pressure, blue colours. And these are the dates that the forecast

04:38is valid for. So we're looking at Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. You can see on

04:43the latest run of computer models, these are the recent computer model runs going back

04:49in time, the very latest ones all suggest blues low pressure through next week. Where

04:57will that low pressure end up? Well, because that jet stream is at relatively low latitudes,

05:03that low pressure is likely to end up around the south west of the UK, which means that

05:07across south western and southern parts of Britain it will often be windy, there'll be

05:12rain at times through next week. However, northern and western Scotland, true to form

05:18for the month of May, looks likely to have a drier and more settled week of weather.

05:24Still some uncertainty of course, we're looking at ten days ahead. Beyond that, now this is

05:29the same graphic, blues indicate low pressure, reds indicate high pressure. Beyond that,

05:34looking at Saturday and Sunday into the middle of May, reds return. So some suggestion there,

05:41some hope on the horizon that the weather will settle down once again. But that's a

05:44long way off of course, and you can keep up to date with all the very latest updates via

05:48the Met Office social media channels and via the Met Office app. Bye bye.

10 Day Trend – Cold northerlies, but for how long? 01/05/19

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