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Report
Ten Day Trend - Will the wet and windy weather continue?
Met Office
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14/10/2024
With a lively jet stream sitting right over the UK, low pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the next week or so meaning further spells of rain should be expected, often accompanied by gusty winds.
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00:00
Hello. Welcome to the 10-day trend.
00:02
A look at the weather patterns as we go into next week.
00:06
Now, think of autumn.
00:07
I don't know about you, but I always
00:08
think of two distinct types of weather,
00:11
the cool, misty mornings followed by the blue skies,
00:14
or there's the wet and windy type.
00:16
And for the next week or so, well, it's
00:18
definitely the wet and windy type
00:20
that's going to be dominating.
00:21
Low pressure will be controlling our weather.
00:24
It means spells of rain followed by sunshine and showers.
00:27
And often, it'll be pretty blustery as well.
00:30
Signs of maybe something a little bit drier
00:33
for a time early next week, but the basic trends
00:36
through next week are for more periods of rain.
00:39
Let's take a look at the rest of this week, really.
00:41
And the pressure pattern shows the story.
00:43
One area of low pressure that's been dominating this week
00:45
clears away.
00:45
Another one joins in.
00:47
This wiggling, waving weather front
00:48
will be the main feature through the course of the weekend.
00:52
And that will bring, again, further spells of rain.
00:55
And even into the early part of next week,
00:56
we are surrounded by low pressure.
00:59
So there's no sign of any big, fat high
01:01
coming to settle the weather down.
01:03
Why is it all about low pressure and unsettled weather?
01:06
Well, it's because of the jet stream,
01:08
that fast-moving ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere,
01:11
just taking low-pressure systems across the UK.
01:14
The jet stream sitting right slap-bang above us,
01:17
really, for the next four or five days and probably beyond.
01:21
And this little dip, this little trough in the jet stream,
01:24
particularly this flank of it and how
01:26
it interacts with this area of low pressure,
01:28
will be something we'll be keeping
01:30
a close eye on for Sunday.
01:32
More on that in a moment, because we
01:33
could see some further problems with wet weather on Friday.
01:37
This wiggling weather front's likely to bring
01:40
fairly persistent rain on Friday across the hills of Wales
01:43
and northern England in particular,
01:46
but not just over the hills, right across Wales,
01:48
parts of northern England.
01:50
Because the ground is saturated, this rain falling
01:53
through much of the day could cause some issues.
01:56
So we do have a yellow warning in force
01:58
for Friday's wet weather.
02:01
Once that's cleared away, well, then, as I say,
02:03
through the weekends, we've still
02:05
got this weather front nearby.
02:06
And particularly looking at how it develops down
02:08
to the southwest, you can almost see there
02:10
the potential that could actually
02:12
turn into an area of low pressure on its own.
02:14
And, well, there is the possibility
02:16
that that could happen, depending
02:18
on exactly how it interacts with the jet stream,
02:20
the position of the jet stream, how strong the jet stream could
02:23
spin that little wave, we call it, on a weather front
02:26
into possibly a deeper area of low pressure
02:29
that could bring a windy spell, as well as likely
02:32
to bring more wet weather.
02:34
Either way, by the time we get to Sunday and into Monday,
02:38
that's out of the way.
02:39
And look at this chart for Monday.
02:41
Not an isobar on it, not a weather front on it.
02:43
So as I said, there is a hint of something a little bit drier,
02:48
albeit not for very long, but for the early part
02:50
of next week.
02:51
Some drier weather, and without isobars on the chart,
02:54
that means the winds will be light.
02:56
But of course, at this time of year,
02:58
that could then allow some pretty thick fog patches
03:01
to form that may take quite a long time to clear away.
03:04
That's going to be exacerbated because it has been very wet,
03:08
of course, of the ground.
03:09
It's saturated with a lot of moisture
03:10
around to form that fog.
03:12
So that could be a potential hazard, certainly
03:15
on Monday morning.
03:17
What about beyond the early part of next week?
03:19
Well, we're then back almost to square one.
03:21
It looks like low pressure will then dominate.
03:23
Most of the computer models agreeing that low pressure
03:26
will again dominate to the northwest of the UK.
03:29
This is the European model chart for Tuesday.
03:31
There's the UK.
03:32
So perhaps largely dry at this stage, but these blue dots,
03:35
that's a band of rain that may well
03:37
come swinging in tied to this low pressure system.
03:40
Fast forward to Thursday, and that low hasn't moved very far.
03:43
It's still dictating the weather.
03:45
A lot of isobars on the chart.
03:47
Spell of rain moves through, and then we're
03:49
left with showers, the little blue V's there.
03:51
That's a suggestion we're going to see a lot of showers
03:53
come the latter part of next week.
03:56
So as I said, there's no real sign
03:57
of the weather settling down.
03:58
We'll probably get a spell of rain
04:00
through the middle part of next week
04:02
as that weather front swings in, and then it's
04:04
back to sunshine and showers, where
04:06
we have been for much of this week.
04:07
And often, those winds will be playing a big part,
04:11
often quite blustery and gusty.
04:13
So that's the kind of fair we're expecting
04:15
for the next 10 days or so.
04:17
Keep up to date with the very latest Met Office weather
04:19
warnings by downloading our app.
04:21
Or of course, the best way to stay up to date,
04:23
follow us on social media.
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