Met Office 14 day weather outlook 08/07/2025

Met Office

14 day outlook presented by Alex Deakin

Transcript

00:00Welcome to your 14-day outlook. There's lots going on in the short term.

00:05You're probably aware that temperatures are rising once more and picking up quite significantly.

00:10Here's the bigger picture. The jet stream looking fairly feeble out in the Atlantic,

00:14but we are going to see a bit of a shift.

00:16This area of high pressure gets pushed in and sits across the UK as the jet stream drives to the south

00:22and then pushes low-pressure systems up across Iceland,

00:26allowing this area of high pressure to dominate our weather.

00:29High pressure squashing the air, help of a bit of July sun will lift those temperatures day on day

00:35and we'll see a peak through the weekend.

00:38And this hot spell, which will be a heat wave for some, will be more widespread than the last one.

00:43Sunday likely to see temperatures, well, probably for the fourth day, over 30 degrees across parts of England and Wales,

00:50but also rising across Scotland and Northern Ireland with temperatures here in the mid-20s,

00:55perhaps even over 30 degrees along the Murray Firth.

00:58So, yes, Sunday is a hot day, a sunny day for the vast majority.

01:03Next question, of course, is how long is the hot spell going to last?

01:06There's a bit of uncertainty about that, as this chart kind of shows.

01:11The UK is under these squiggly lines.

01:13The green line is where the ECMWF model wants the cold front to be,

01:18but more of them are further west.

01:20So, that's why there's a question mark, because where this blue line lies, that's where the cooler, fresher air is.

01:25And the UK is under that whole mass.

01:28So, it is likely to turn cooler into the early part of next week,

01:32but exactly when is difficult to say at this stage.

01:35And, yes, that front will also be bringing some rain, it looks like, particularly into western areas.

01:40But, again, is that going to be Monday or is that going to be Tuesday?

01:44Stay tuned for more updates on that.

01:46We're very confident about the hot spell into the weekend.

01:49Not so confident with the uncertainty rising into the early part of next week.

01:54But, either way, temperatures will at least dip a little bit.

01:58Unlikely to turn particularly cool, however, for much of next week.

02:01I think we're still going to be under the influence of the winds coming in from the southwest.

02:05But, lower pressure is getting closer to the west of the UK.

02:08So, it is likely to turn a bit wetter in western areas.

02:12I think in the east, it's likely to stay largely dry through next week.

02:15Although, a bit of a question mark by the time we get to Friday.

02:17But, notice the percentage chance of these weather patterns happening only down at about 20%.

02:22So, there's a much higher chance, 80%, that something different is in the offing.

02:26But, it does look as if it will turn a bit wetter into western areas

02:29through the middle part of next week.

02:32And, then the following weekend, the weekend of the 19th, 20th of July.

02:37Well, again, a lot of uncertainty.

02:39And, even into the following week, a lot of unbiased pressure patterns

02:42are not telling us any strong signals.

02:45They're all giving quite mixed messages.

02:47Again, hints that low pressure will be sitting out to the west.

02:50So, there could be some shallery rain out west.

02:52But, we can't say a lot, as is often the case at this time of year,

02:55about that long-range forecast.

02:57It's difficult to pin down too much detail.

02:59So, hot, certainly, through the next four or five days.

03:03Getting a little cooler next week.

03:05But, with no strong signal, more likely to see wetter conditions

03:08in parts of the north and the west through the second half of next week.

03:13Always the likelihood of keeping the warmest, driest, and sunniest weather

03:15across the south and the east.

03:17And, of course, after such hot spells of weather earlier in the summer,

03:21it wouldn't take much to tap into that heat again,

03:24which will be lurking just to the south.

03:27Do keep up to date with everything to do with the weather over the next few days.

03:31As I say, there's an awful lot going on.

03:33And, for the day-to-day details as we go through next week,

03:35where you want to be following the Met Office on social media,

03:38or why not subscribe to our YouTube channel?

03:40And, of course, I'll see you next week.

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