Met Office 14 day weather outlook 27/05/2025

Met Office

14 day weather outlook presented by Alex Burkhill

Transcript

00:00Hello, welcome to your latest Met Office 14-day outlook.

00:04The more changeable weather, well it's here, but how long is it going to stay?

00:08Let's have a little look at our probabilistic pressure chart and we can see some greens and blues as we go through the rest of this week,

00:15this coming weekend, indicating either low pressure or something a bit more neutral, no strong bias either way.

00:22And then there were signs in the past that we would see higher pressure building,

00:25so a more settled spell as we go through this weekend and into the beginning of next week, albeit likely to just be short-lived.

00:32That now looks like it's changed a little bit, no real strong signs for anything settled for the little time being.

00:38In fact, actually as we go through next week, it looks like more unsettled weather is going to be coming our way.

00:44But thereafter, good agreement amongst the models over previous model runs that we are going to see a return

00:50and a long-lasting return for that high pressure, and so we should see a fairly prolonged, more settled spell

00:57as we at least go through the middle to end of June.

01:00That's the forecast at the moment.

01:02Looking at the details a bit more, and currently the jet stream is running across the UK.

01:07We haven't really seen the jet too near us recently, but it is now across us and it's driving various features,

01:13such as an area of low pressure that's coming close to or just over the northwest of the UK on Thursday,

01:18bring some wet and windy weather then, and then the jet stream continues to pile across us,

01:23and that's likely to drive another area of low pressure as we go through this weekend,

01:27particularly across northern parts.

01:29And so that's going to bring some wet weather ahead of it.

01:31There will be a plume of warmer, more humid air coming up from the south,

01:35but because that system now looks like it's going to come in quite quickly,

01:39I'm not really expecting much in the way of thundery showers across the southeast because of that plume,

01:44which is a different story to this time yesterday.

01:46But otherwise, as we look even further ahead and as we go through the first full week of June,

01:53this is the pressure anomaly map from ECMWF,

01:56and I already said that there are signs that next week is looking pretty changeable,

02:01and that's the story of low pressure generally in control,

02:04lower than average pressure across much of the UK.

02:07But there is high pressure to the south of us,

02:09and if we dart ahead a week further, now running from the 9th to the 16th of June,

02:13you can see that high looks likely to have pushed its way northwards,

02:17and Azor's high, if you will, coming in and leading to some more fine weather.

02:21It's worth bearing in mind all this time in the jet streams,

02:23it's not going to be as far north or as weak as it was during much of spring,

02:27so we are going to have a fairly mobile pattern coming in.

02:31So although high pressure looks like the main talking point,

02:34there will be some further spells of more changeable weather to come as we go through the middle of June.

02:39But yes, looking at the 7 to 14 day outlook,

02:41we are going to see some more changeable weather for a time,

02:44so some further rain, some further strong winds as well,

02:47but also some drier spells mixed in.

02:49And with high then building from the south,

02:52the weather should quieten down a bit more as we head deeper into June,

02:56and generally we're looking at a north-west-south-east split.

02:58With that more mobile pattern, the heaviest rain, the strongest winds,

03:02always more likely towards north-western parts of the UK.

03:05We will, of course, be keeping you up to date,

03:07so make sure you follow along and then you'll never miss an update.

03:10See you later.

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