Met Office 14 day weather outlook 25/03/25

Met Office

14 Day Outlook presented by Alex Burkill

Transcript

00:00Hello, welcome to your latest Met Office 14 day outlook.

00:04There is some uncertainty as to exactly how quickly we're going to get there,

00:08but strong signs we're going to have blocking high pressure as we go through into April.

00:12For the time being though, and we actually have a bit of high pressure across us

00:16as we go through into Wednesday, so a quiet night, a bit chilly for some,

00:20some fog first thing, then a mostly fine day before a weather system comes in from the northwest.

00:24So plenty of rain towards northwestern parts on Thursday,

00:28then sweeping through on Friday with blustery showers following towards the north.

00:32Then a brief ridge of high pressure quietens things down for a time early Saturday

00:36before more wet and windy weather pushes through as we go through Saturday and into Sunday.

00:40Thereafter, this is where the uncertainty comes in.

00:44We have high pressure towards the southwest of the UK and some models want this to build

00:48quite quickly and settle our weather down as we go through Sunday

00:52and into the beginning of next week. However, other models want this high to

00:56linger here for a little while longer and allow for another system to come through.

01:00So more wet and windy weather for a time as we go through Sunday and into Monday.

01:04But whether or not we have more unsettled weather for a little while yet,

01:08what I'm a bit more confident about is the fact that we are going to see

01:12a change to something more settled with blocking high pressure becoming more dominant.

01:16And you can see that if we look at our probability plot, yes, we have some blues

01:20indicating a relatively unsettled story as we go through Thursday

01:24and Friday and into the weekend.

01:28But thereafter, strong signs that through the first week of April

01:32we are going to see high pressure firmly in charge and it looks like it's going to stay in charge

01:36as we go through towards the middle of the month as well.

01:40If we look at the ECMWF anomaly charts and starting off with pressure

01:44and the pinks indicating that much higher than average pressure most likely across the bulk of the UK

01:48is that high pressure to the south will have pushed its way northeastwards

01:52sitting somewhere across the UK or just to the northeast of us.

01:56And with that then, we'd have a lot of dry weather around,

02:00so not much rain if any at all, and our temperatures are going to be

02:04a bit above average for the time of year.

02:08If we just look ahead a little bit further to the following week, and by this point,

02:12most likely the high pressure will have shifted a bit further north.

02:16And whilst this would still bring a lot of settled dry weather across many parts of the UK,

02:20it's going to develop particularly towards the far south and we will be dragging in a bit of an easterly.

02:24Now, if this was happening during the winter, an easterly would be a pretty cold direction.

02:28But because we're now heading deeper into spring, that easterly wind,

02:32well, it's not going to be too cold at all, if anything.

02:36It will bring something a little bit warmer than average, so temperatures not dropping a huge amount

02:40from the first week of April. But in summary then, as we go through, well, the next 14 days,

02:44we are going to see a more unsettled spell to end this week

02:48and through much of the weekend. Then at some stage, either through Sunday

02:52or very early next week, we're going to have a change to high pressure building

02:56and that's going to be a blocking pattern, keeping fronts away.

03:00And so we're going to have a lot of dry weather, but perhaps towards the end of the period,

03:04a few more showers developing, especially towards the south.

03:08I hope you have a lovely rest of your day and I'll see you again soon.

Category

Transcript

Recommended