00:00We have a heat wave building at the moment, but how are things looking as we go further through June and into the start of July?
00:07Well, starting off looking right now, and yes, the jet stream's running across northern parts of the UK and bringing a bit more changeable weather here.
00:14But the big talking point is the high pressure that's building, and this high is leading to day-on-day heating.
00:20And even though we're dragging our air in from, well, towards the west and north, we are seeing our temperatures rising as we go through this week.
00:28And then eventually we drag in some hot, humid air from the south, which is going to lift our temperatures even further for Saturday and Sunday, which is why we have this heat wave through this week.
00:38But then next week, what happens?
00:40Well, if we look to next Monday and if we look at the probabilistic pressure chart after a big chunk of red showing high pressure through this week, there are signs of a bit more of a change,
00:51something a bit more, well, neutral and changeable, low pressure more likely as we go through the early to middle part of next week.
00:58So we should see some wetter weather.
00:59We're going to see a breakdown in the hot weather that we have through this coming weekend, and things are going to turn, yes, a little bit fresher, but also a bit wetter at times.
01:08Could be some heavy thundery downpours in a few places too.
01:11Later on next week, towards the following weekend, signs that we could see high pressure returning, albeit they're not especially strong at this lead time.
01:19If we look at the pressure anomaly chart from ECMWF and, well, through next week, it shows nothing really that exciting and as much as higher pressure may be somewhere towards the northeast than average,
01:32but low pressure not too far away towards the northwest and around average pressure towards the south.
01:38And I think this broad brush chart for the whole week kind of doesn't tell us the detail.
01:42I think really we're going to see some more changeable weather to start the week with low pressure, possibly to the north, possibly something coming in from the south.
01:50And then towards the end of the week, higher pressure more likely.
01:54But then as we go through further and into July, then we start to see lower pressure returning towards the northwest.
02:00And that's when we start to get a bit more of a northwest-southeast split with the wettest, windiest weather towards the northwest and something drier towards the southeast.
02:09Looking at our rainfall anomaly, and it's a drier picture towards the northeast as we go through next week.
02:14And that goes in line with the idea that we could see a system coming in from the west-northwest and also something coming in from the south.
02:20So some wetter weather at times possible, particularly during the early part of the week.
02:25And then thereafter, like I said, for the following week, a bit more of a northwest-southeast split, drier, drier than average, most likely towards the southeast.
02:33A wetter story across parts of Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland.
02:37Temperatures all the while, as we go through the next two weeks, they are staying above average, perhaps not quite as hot as what we're expecting through this coming weekend with low, possibly mid-30s.
02:47But it's not out of the question that we could see the return of some exceptionally high temperatures as we go through the end of June and into July.
02:55What I do think is pretty likely is that generally temperatures are going to stay above average.
03:01But for the 7 to 14-day period, like I said, a bit of changeable weather to start the week.
03:07Could continue until the middle of the week at least with some rain.
03:10Could be heavy, could be thundery in places.
03:11But then likely to see higher pressure returning for a little while.
03:15So the weather settling down and all the time, temperatures likely to be above average.
03:20And then through the following week, well, that northwest-southeast split that I mentioned looks the most likely set up with the wetter weather towards northwest and drier towards the southeast.
03:30We will, of course, be keeping you up to date and make sure you stay safe in the hot weather that we have coming this week.
