23 May - 14 day outlook presented by Alex Burkill
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00:00Hello, very good day to you. Welcome to your latest Met Office 14-day outlook as I run through what we could expect through the end of meteorological spring and into meteorological summer.
00:10Now, through this week, we've seen the jet stream strengthening a fair bit, and this slightly stronger jet is now running across the UK as we go through the bank holiday weekend and into next week.
00:21As a result, some various low-pressure systems are coming near the UK, and their associated fronts will bring some wet weather at times.
00:28There'll be some blustery winds as well, but it's not going to be a total washout of a week.
00:32There will be some drier, brighter weather at times as well.
00:35Notice later Tuesday into Wednesday, a brief ridge of high pressure will settle the weather down for a time before more changeable weather arrives later on.
00:43But what happens thereafter? Well, let's look at our probabilistic pressure trend, and the blues indicate low pressure is more likely,
00:50and that brings a more changeable theme, which is what we have through the next week or so, half term.
00:55So that's a little unfortunate for some places.
00:58But thereafter, towards the end of next week and as we go towards June, there are some reds indicated, and these suggest high pressure, more settled weather.
01:07Now, there's been fairly good agreement as we've gone through previous model runs of this change back to high pressure,
01:13but it's not the strongest signal when we look at the percentage chance.
01:18Another thing that I wanted to show you is our zonal trend.
01:21This shows us whether or not our weather's going to be coming in from the west or from the east,
01:26and there's strong signals that we're going to have a westerly flow, so quite a mobile pattern,
01:32which is a different theme to what we had through much of spring, where we had that blocking high, stopping much progress coming in from the west.
01:40One other chart that I wanted to show you is our Hofmoller from ECMWF, and the UK is here along this line down the middle, the vertical line,
01:48and we go further in time as we go downwards.
01:51So at the moment, through the next week or so, blues indicating low pressure in charge,
01:57and that goes in line with the more changeable theme that I'm expecting for much of next week.
02:01Then there's high pressure building towards the end of next week,
02:04but a relatively short-lived high before a slightly longer-lasting high as we go deeper into June,
02:10developing around the 5th, the 6th of June, and that could last for a fair while.
02:14So the weather is likely to settle down again.
02:17But with that westerly flow that I mentioned,
02:21this all kind of indicates that there's a reasonable chance that we'll see an Azores high building up from the south.
02:27And so what that means is, yes, the weather is likely to turn more settled than we're going to see it through next week,
02:33but not as dry, not as prolonged a dry settled spell as we saw it through much of spring.
02:39That's because that westerly flow is still likely going to bring some weather systems in from the west,
02:45and yes, they'll bash against that Azores high.
02:47So it's mainly towards the northwest of the UK that we're going to see the rain,
02:51but some of it will push its way across the whole country.
02:54And the other thing to bear in mind, with that Azores high,
02:57it brings the chance of a plume of warmer air coming in from the south,
03:01and that then brings the risk of some heavy, thundery showers.
03:04So it's fair to say a more settled theme is likely during the 7-14 day period,
03:11but not totally dry, and there's a risk of some various hazards, perhaps even some thunder.
03:16So best keep up to date.