Met Office 14 day weather outlook 03/12/2024

Met Office

14 day outlook presented by Alex Burkill

Transcript

00:00Hello, welcome to your latest Met Office 14 day outlook as we look at the forecast further

00:05into winter. Starting off looking at the jet stream because it's a pretty active jet heading

00:10towards the UK through the rest of this week. In fact, as we head through Wednesday evening

00:15overnight into Thursday, the jet could reach speeds of around 250 miles per hour. So very

00:20strong indeed. And it's that strong jet that's going to drive unsettled weather as we go

00:25through the next few days and into the beginning of the weekend. But to look at that in a little

00:29bit more detail, starting off on Wednesday and after a ridge of high pressure to start,

00:34so some fine weather earlier on, things are going to turn wetter and windier due to an

00:39area of low pressure pushing its way in. Later on as we go through into Thursday, another

00:44area of low pressure driven through on that strong jet stream brings more unsettled weather,

00:48a slight quieter day on Friday before another deep air of low pressure is likely to come

00:53in as we go through later Friday and into Saturday. Now, there is some uncertainty as

00:58to the track that this low pressure is going to take. It could be a bit further north and

01:02there's also uncertainty as to how deep, how intense it's going to be. So worth bearing

01:06mind there could be some pretty unsettled weather to come on Saturday, but it's also

01:11possible that the strongest winds, the heaviest rain will be across other parts of Europe

01:15instead. Thereafter, and we're likely to see or very likely to see high pressure building

01:21from the west to southwest. And so while Sunday is still looking pretty changeable, showery

01:25rain, perhaps some sleet and snow coming down from the north, all of that unsettled

01:29weather is going to get pushed away towards the east as we go into the beginning of next

01:33week. We can see that if we look at the most likely regime from ECMWF for next Monday,

01:38the 9th of December, and yes, high pressure building and dominating across much of the

01:43country, though towards the far southeast, we may just about still be clinging onto some

01:47of that showery rain at times. It says up here that this is the most likely regime and

01:53it's very likely indeed. In fact, all of the model members from ECMWF agree that that's

01:59the most likely regime. No guarantee it will definitely come off, but confidence is exceptionally

02:04high for the beginning of next week. This confidence index just shows how exceptionally

02:08high it couldn't be higher for next Monday. And so there's a fairly good chance that we

02:14are going to see that high pressure building for a time. Uncertainty then builds as we

02:18go later on next week. Confidence drops only to around average. But exactly how long that

02:24high lasts, that's where there is a fair bit of uncertainty still. So if we look at next

02:29week as a whole and here is the pressure anomaly chart from ECMWF and it shows that higher

02:34than average pressure is pretty likely across at least the northwest of the UK towards the

02:39southeast less so. But I am expecting that high pressure to gradually move its way towards

02:44the east as we go through next week. Exactly how quickly it does so. That's what there's

02:48still all to play for. If that high pressure clings on for quite a while, you would expect

02:52largely dry weather to be the dominant picture. And this is what this chart here shows. And

02:57with that, because of the direction of the wind around that high coming from the north

03:01northeast at times, it's going to be pretty chilly. So there will be some frosty nights

03:04to come, at least to start next week. But then things are likely to turn more changeable

03:09at some point. So looking at the whole of next week and yes, a more settled start looks

03:14pretty likely. And with that, some cold, frosty nights and could even be quite chilly

03:18by day, despite the fact that could be some winter sunshine around. And then there's likely

03:23to be a change to something more unsettled as we go through the latter part of the week.

03:27But before then, make sure you keep up to date with the forecast as there is some unsettled

03:31weather to come this week. See you later.

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