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Met Office
  • 13/11/2024
12 November - 14 day outlook presented by Alex Burkill
Transcript
00:00Welcome along to your 14-day outlook. So far, November has been pretty static weather-wise,
00:06not a lot going on, and that is all about to change. We've seen high pressure dominating
00:11for the first couple of weeks of November, still in control for the rest of this week,
00:15the jet stream way up to the north. But as we head into the weekend, we see a shift.
00:20The jet stream likely to drive south across the country. The high pressure gets pushed
00:24away, low pressure drifting across Scandinavia, and that means the winds will be coming around
00:29that low pressure, drawing down colder air across the UK. So we will see that difference
00:36into the weekend. I mean, this week, the mornings will still be cold. We have frosts overnight,
00:41but generally, colder air starting to push its way southwards as we go into the weekend.
00:47And that will be cold enough, that air, for some snow showers over the hills across Scotland.
00:53Nothing too unusual about that. As we go through next week, the broad signal is that pressure
00:59is going to be a lot lower. We've seen high pressure in control for the first half of
01:04November. That is all switching around. The pinks are high pressure. The greens are low
01:08pressure. And the signal for the whole of next week, when you average it across using
01:14the European model, the pressure anomaly, so pressure compared to average, much lower
01:19pressure compared to average to the east of the UK. If the low is sitting here, then the
01:24flow is coming around the low. The winds will be coming down from the north for much of
01:28the week. That's going to keep things on the chilly side. And this is the most likely
01:32pressure set up, the pressure anomaly, as we go through certainly the first half of
01:36next week, with lower pressure sitting to the east, a weaker high pressure sitting down
01:41to the southwest, and that generating winds from the north or the northwest. That is going
01:46to keep things on the cool side, but also bringing plenty of showers. Those showers
01:50will chiefly be of rain. But of course, at this time of year, particularly with colder
01:55air in place, there is the possibility of some snow in those showers. Mostly it is going
02:01to be over the hills. Further south, it will be milder. So I think most of the wet weather
02:05here will be rain. Just the small risk of some snow on hills if we see low pressure
02:09systems coming in. And there is a signal for that, particularly as we head into the following
02:14weekend. Most likely pressure pattern is pretty similar, with low pressure to the east of
02:20the U.K., high pressure further away to the west, so a weaker area of high pressure. But
02:25notice rainfall, more rainfall than usual, these purple-y colours across France and Spain,
02:31indicative that low pressure systems may be moving in here. The jet stream may be further
02:36south. And that south shifted jet stream means we are on the cold side of the jet still,
02:41but it also gives the chance of some of that wetter weather drifting north into parts of
02:45the south, perhaps interacting with the colder air to bring some snow on hills. But that's
02:51only a small chance, the most likely scenario, about 20% chance. There is also a 15% chance
02:57that the high pressure does start to topple in and that would bring something a little
03:01bit drier generally, but still on the chilly side. So quite a bit of uncertainty, more
03:05uncertainty than usual for the back end of this two-week forecast period. But colder
03:10air is more likely certainly than milder air. But how much wet weather we see depends
03:17on how close that area of high pressure is and whether we see any of those low pressures
03:22scooting in across the south. But certainly quite a lot of interest in the forecast as
03:26we go into next week. So do keep up to date with the forecast yourself. Best way to do
03:31that, of course, is to subscribe to our YouTube channel and follow us right across social
03:36media.

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