Met Office 14 day weather outlook 15/07/2025

14 da outlook presented by Alex Burkill

Transcript

00:00Hello, this is your latest Met Office 14-day outlook recorded on the 15th of July and I'll

00:05be looking at the trends we can expect through the next two weeks. Starting off looking at

00:10our probabilistic pressure trend and what this shows is whilst there's some unsettled

00:15weather around with blues indicating low pressure and then yes Wednesday is higher pressure

00:19so something a bit calmer and then a transition period to end the week and into a more unsettled

00:25weekend. For the well the 7 to 14 day period really from the 21st 22nd of July onwards there's

00:33kind of a neutral setup and that suggests that it's going to be quite changeable and so there'll

00:38be some frontal systems moving through but they won't last particularly long and then there'll

00:42be some drier weather in between but again that won't last particularly long either. If we look

00:47at the zonal trend so whether or not our weather will be coming in from the west or the east and

00:51after again initially a neutral situation for the next couple of days for next week it looks pretty

00:58likely that we're going to have that westerly flow. So quite a mobile pattern and that goes in line

01:03with the changeable setup with systems moving through relatively quickly. So some rain at times

01:08something drier as well but if we just run through the rest of this week and low pressure across the UK

01:14on Tuesday brought a pretty unsettled day. Wednesday's quieter a ridge of high pressure keeping most places

01:20drier away from the southwest and then into Thursday some wet weather pushes across western parts could

01:26be quite heavy across parts of Northern Ireland in particular and eventually that pushes its way

01:30eastwards as we go into Friday but all the time towards the southeast largely dry until the weekend

01:35when we're likely to see some heavy rain coming up from the south. That could be thundery could cause

01:40some torrential downpours in places so there could be a few issues as a result of that or because we have

01:45low pressure somewhere across the UK. Some uncertainty as to the exact position but it looks like it will be

01:52somewhere across the south perhaps even the southwest. Nonetheless as we go into the weekend it does look

01:57quite unsettled. But thereafter and if we look through the following week so from the 21st to the 28th of

02:03July and looking at the pressure trend from ECMWF and it it doesn't have a strong signal lower than average

02:11pressure ever so slightly across the UK but there is higher pressure towards the south but like I say

02:18it's not an especially strong signal which goes in line with that kind of more changeable setup that

02:23we're likely to see. If we look at rainfall amounts towards the southeast hints that it could be a little

02:28bit wetter than average here elsewhere just around average so again this idea that there could be some

02:34wet spells pushing through but also some decent dry weather to be had and when it comes to temperatures

02:39well I think when you average it out it's going to be a bit warmer than average that's partly because

02:44it's been so hot recently sea surface temperatures are well above average and so we have that baseline

02:50warmth and so any dry settle periods that we do get they're likely to be pretty warm if not hot as well

02:56and so yeah as a whole it is looking quite warm so a rather changeable setup to come I think as we go

03:02through next week it's going to start pretty unsettled and then perhaps dry up a little bit

03:08but there will be some further rain at times see you later