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00:00우리는 어쩌다가 여기까지 왔을까요?
00:30로버트 퍼트넘은 분열된 사회 속에서 통합의 해법을 모색하는 정치 사회 분야의 권위자입니다.
00:46그의 기억 속 참 좋았던 시절.
00:50그리고 지금은 뭐가 달라진 걸까요?
00:54무너져가는 세상에 갈 길 잃은 이들을 위해 그가 나섰습니다.
01:08전 세계에 흩어져 있는 위대한 생각들을 모았습니다.
01:16어떤 생각은 우리를 저 먼 곳으로 데려갑니다.
01:24성격
01:28성격
01:30성격
01:34성격
01:36성격
01:43성격
01:45우리 대 한 수업, Great Minds.
01:48My name is Bob Putnam,
01:50and I'd like to welcome you to my home on Frost Pond
01:53in Jaffray, New Hampshire, on this bright spring morning.
02:08So far today, what have we learned?
02:11First of all, we've learned about the concept of social capital.
02:15We've learned how important it is
02:17in the carefully designed experiment in Italy.
02:22We've learned how important social capital is for democracy.
02:26We've learned that social capital, in America at least,
02:29and actually other research has shown
02:31that this is true in many other countries,
02:33social capital has been declining
02:34over the last 30 to 40 years.
02:38And finally, in the most recent discussion,
02:40we've learned about the effects of that change in social capital
02:47on the opportunities that are available.
02:52The declining social capital has led to
02:54growing inequality in America.
02:57Now I want to step back in this last discussion
03:00and take both a wider view,
03:05not looking just at social capital,
03:06but looking at other features of society,
03:08and a longer view,
03:11looking not just at the last
03:1330 or 40 or 50 years,
03:15but the last 125 years.
03:17And what we're going to find,
03:20and this will come as no shock to any American today,
03:24America is at currently historical levels
03:28of political polarization.
03:30Rarely in our history has there been
03:31more sharp political divisions in America
03:34than there are today.
03:35And independently,
03:37we're at a historic period of economic inequality.
03:41Rarely has the gap between rich folks and poor folks
03:44been as great as it is in America today.
03:48And in terms of social capital,
03:50rarely has America been so socially isolated,
03:54American citizens so socially isolated from one another.
03:58Rarely in history have we been as
04:00atomistic and individualistic as we are.
04:04And the question to begin with is,
04:06how did we get here?
04:08What have been the historical trends
04:10that have led us to this point?
04:11And so I want to begin now with four graphs
04:15showing trends in political polarization,
04:19economic inequality, social isolation,
04:22and cultural self-centeredness
04:24over the last 125 years.
04:27And this shows the trends in political polarization
04:32or political comedy
04:35over the last 125 years, roughly speaking.
04:38And up here is the opposite of polarization.
04:44Up here is bipartisanship
04:46or getting together, political comedy.
04:48American politics in the late 19th century
04:51was extremely tribal.
04:55People did not trust one another across party lines.
04:58They did not marry across party lines.
05:01And they did not cooperate
05:03on political issues across party lines.
05:06And then you see that for the first half,
05:10the first half of the 20th century,
05:13America got every year
05:14a little more cooperative politically.
05:18Every year we became a little more likely
05:21to trust people across the aisle,
05:24across the other side of the partisan divide,
05:26and to work on bipartisanship
05:28and to work collaboratively
05:30on our shared national problems.
05:32Still pretty polarized,
05:37but a little more cooperative.
05:39And that line steadily rose
05:41up through the 1930s and 40s
05:45and reached its peak sometime
05:47around 1960, late 1950s.
05:52The president at that point of that period
05:58was a man named Dwight Eisenhower.
06:01Dwight Eisenhower, all historians agree,
06:04was the least partisan president
06:07in American history.
06:11But Eisenhower was so bipartisan
06:13that both the Democrats and the Republicans
06:15thought about nominating him for president.
06:18Indeed, both parties asked him
06:19if they could nominate him for president.
06:21I do not mean that Eisenhower
06:23caused bipartisanship.
06:25I mean that bipartisanship
06:26and this peak of collaboration
06:29resulted in Eisenhower.
06:35And then somehow, beginning
06:37in the late 1960s, early 1970s,
06:42all of that begins to change.
06:44And suddenly America starts to become
06:46less cooperative politically.
06:48Doesn't happen overnight.
06:50Takes a couple of decades or two.
06:52But then you can see,
06:53beginning in about 1980,
06:55it's steadily down, down, down.
06:58Doesn't matter who's in power.
07:02Could be Republicans in power
07:03like Reagan or the Bushes,
07:07or it could be Democrats in power
07:08like Bill Clinton or Obama.
07:12Nevertheless, steadily down, down, down, down, down.
07:15Until by the end,
07:21by the time we reach now,
07:24America is more polarized
07:25than it was at the beginning
07:27of this whole 125 years.
07:30We haven't always been.
07:31This graph shows it within living memory,
07:33within my memory.
07:34When I was growing up,
07:35America had a much more cooperative.
07:38So something has happened.
07:40So in this case,
07:41we're looking at the graph
07:43for economic equality.
07:44Equality is up.
07:46Inequality is down.
07:48And what you can see,
07:49the data here,
07:50actually the hard data,
07:52don't begin until 1911
07:54because that's when the
07:56federal income tax
07:58was created.
08:00And therefore,
08:00the Internal Revenue Service
08:01began to collect hard data
08:03on income.
08:06But we know even before that
08:08that from other data
08:10that America then
08:12had a very high degree
08:15of inequality.
08:17It was a period that's called
08:19in American historiography
08:20the Gilded Age.
08:22The Gilded Age was a period
08:23in which there was a huge gap.
08:26They were Rockefeller
08:46and Ford
08:48and Carnegie.
08:51These were all
08:52the rich robber barons
08:55of our Industrial Revolution.
09:03The people who dominated
09:05the automobile industry
09:06or the petroleum industry
09:08or the steel industry
09:10or the...
09:14Very rich folks
09:16living mostly
09:17on the Upper East Side
09:18of Manhattan
09:19and
09:21a mere
09:2210 miles south of there
09:24on the Lower East Side
09:25of Manhattan
09:25were living extremely poor
09:28huddled immigrants.
09:33And you can see
09:34that that began
09:35in the early years
09:36of the 20th century
09:36that began to change
09:37a little bit.
09:38The gap between rich and poor
09:39began to narrow.
09:40There's a pause
09:41in the 1920s
09:42that's well understood.
09:44That's called
09:44the Roaring Twenties
09:45in America.
09:46That's when the stock market
09:47was going up
09:48and therefore
09:48rich folks' income
09:49was going up.
09:51But that pause,
09:52you can see,
09:52lasted barely a decade
09:53and then
09:54even before
09:56the Great Depression
09:57which started
09:58in the 1930s here,
09:59even before then
10:00inequality began
10:01to decline.
10:03Equality began
10:04to increase.
10:09With the New Deal
10:10which was
10:10the Roosevelt's
10:11program
10:12began to have
10:13more equality.
10:16There are too many
10:17of us
10:17the political
10:19equality
10:21we once had won
10:22was meaningless
10:24in the face
10:26of economic
10:27inequality.
10:28but then that
10:39continued
10:40through the 30s
10:41and through the
10:41long after
10:42the New Deal
10:42through the 40s
10:43and into the 50s
10:44and into the 60s
10:45every year
10:47we got a little
10:47more equal
10:48and nowadays
10:49this seems
10:50you can imagine
10:51nowadays
10:51that America
10:52is the most unequal
10:53country in the world
10:54that within my lifetime
10:56we were the most
10:59equal country
11:00in the world
11:00so huge differences
11:01here
11:01and you can see
11:02that that follows
11:03from
11:04and you can see
11:06that that follows
11:06from this
11:07steady downward
11:08trend
11:09in measures
11:10of equality
11:11and in fact
11:12this particular
11:13graph
11:14ends in 2015
11:15but we actually
11:17know what's
11:18happened since
11:192015
11:19and what's
11:20happened since
11:202015
11:21is it's going
11:21even lower
11:22because of the
11:24pandemic
11:24and because of
11:25the tax cuts
11:26from the Republicans
11:27and so on
11:27now we're
11:28at almost
11:30on parallel levels
11:31even more unequal
11:32than we were
11:33during the first
11:34Gilded Age
11:34indeed
11:34many Americans
11:35are calling this
11:36the second
11:36Gilded Age
11:37but now let's
11:38turn to society
11:39and here we're
11:40going to be
11:40looking at trends
11:41in social capital
11:42or what here
11:43I'm calling
11:43social cohesion
11:44and this is the
11:45same standard
11:45measures that we've
11:46used many times
11:48before here
11:48we're looking at
11:49the degree to which
11:49people join
11:50organizations
11:51we're looking at
11:51the degree to which
11:52people are married
11:54and have kids
11:55and trust one another
11:57and involved in
11:58community associations
12:00all those same
12:01measures that we've
12:02used before
12:02they all are here
12:03we begin
12:07in the 1890s
12:09and you see
12:09that America
12:10was very
12:10socially isolated
12:12and very
12:13lacking in
12:15social cohesion
12:16or social capital
12:17low social capital
12:18in that early period
12:19and you can see
12:21that gradually
12:22during the early
12:24decades of the
12:2420th century
12:25we become
12:26steadily more
12:27connected
12:28and what that
12:31means in practice
12:32is more and more
12:33people are
12:33joining clubs
12:34more and more
12:35people are
12:36getting married
12:37and having kids
12:38more and more
12:39people are becoming
12:41involved in clubs
12:42and organizations
12:43more and more
12:44people are trusting
12:44one another
12:45all of that is
12:46shown in that
12:47graph
12:47there's again
12:48just about the
12:49same time that
12:50all these other
12:50curves started to
12:52turn down
12:53in the middle
12:541960s
12:54that suddenly turns
12:55and we stop
12:56getting married
12:58so often
12:58and we stop
12:59joining clubs
13:01and we stop
13:01trusting other
13:02people
13:02not overnight
13:04but gradually
13:05it's suddenly
13:06still and then
13:06we end up
13:07almost back
13:07where we began
13:08in an America
13:11which is very
13:12lacking in social
13:14cohesion
13:14very lacking
13:15in social capital
13:16okay let's look
13:18last at trends
13:20cultural trends
13:21trends in the
13:22sense that
13:22we're either
13:24trends in our
13:26self-centeredness
13:27I guess I would
13:27put it that way
13:28and here this is
13:30it's a little
13:32harder to measure
13:32here we're looking
13:37at trends
13:38in cultural
13:40solidarity
13:41and as you see
13:43at the beginning
13:43of the 20th century
13:45the late 19th century
13:47America was very
13:48much
13:49an eye oriented
13:51society
13:52America was very
13:53self-centered
13:53in that period
13:54and I can say
13:56a little bit
13:56more later
13:57about exactly
13:57what that meant
13:58our image
14:02was then
14:03that
14:03no no
14:05it's a survival
14:08of the fittest
14:08we have to each
14:09look out for
14:10ourselves
14:10and not worry
14:12about anybody else
14:12but then once again
14:15we see in the early
14:16years of the 20th
14:17century
14:18that begins to
14:19change
14:20and we begin to
14:20become our
14:21sense that maybe
14:22we do have
14:23things in common
14:24maybe we do
14:25share a sense
14:26of solidarity
14:27maybe we are
14:29in this together
14:30begins to rise
14:32and that
14:35goes now
14:36a quite familiar
14:37pattern
14:38it rises during
14:38the 1920s
14:39there's a pause
14:40sorry in the 1920s
14:41but then rises
14:42during the 1930s
14:431940s
14:441950s
14:45reaches its peak
14:47in 1964
14:48but then
14:49again remarkably
14:51at that same period
14:52that trend
14:53turns
14:54and for the last
14:5850 years
14:59we've become
15:00increasingly
15:01self-centered
15:01not overnight
15:02but gradually
15:04and inexorably
15:05we end up
15:07in a period
15:08now
15:08in which
15:09America is
15:10in one of its
15:12most self-centered
15:14periods
15:14in life
15:15we care less
15:17about other people
15:17and we care much
15:19and much
15:19more and more
15:21about ourselves
15:22now let's just put
15:24all these graphs
15:25together
15:25and you'll see
15:26a pattern
15:27that no doubt
15:28you've already noticed
15:28here we put
15:30here we put all
15:30of those graphs
15:31together
15:31they're overlaid
15:32on one another
15:33the economic trends
15:35and the politics
15:36trends
15:37and the society
15:38trends
15:38and the cultural
15:39trends
15:39and what you see
15:40is that's all
15:40it's not separate
15:41graphs
15:42it's the same thing
15:42I don't know
15:43if I can convey
15:44how mathematically
15:45this is incredibly
15:47impossible
15:48this graph
15:49shows
15:50America's century
15:52which we call
15:53now
15:53the I
15:55we
15:55I
15:56century
15:56and I think
15:57you can see
15:58why
15:58we call it
15:59the I
16:00we I
16:00century
16:00because at the
16:01beginning
16:01America was
16:03very focused
16:04on me
16:06on I
16:06it's me
16:07and me
16:07me
16:07me
16:07me
16:07and only
16:10gradually
16:10did we move
16:11steadily
16:12over the first
16:13half of the
16:1420th century
16:14to a society
16:16in which we
16:17thought we were
16:18all of this
16:18together
16:18in which we
16:19were all of this
16:20together
16:20in which we
16:20were cooperative
16:22and
16:22and
16:23and
16:23and
16:24solidaristic
16:25and
16:26generous
16:27towards other
16:28people
16:29and then
16:30turning in the
16:32opposite direction
16:32down
16:33down
16:33down
16:34everybody
16:35should have
16:36in your mind
16:37that
16:38image
16:39of this
16:39inverted you
16:40as in
16:42effect
16:42an
16:44x-ray
16:44of American
16:46society
16:46as it
16:47evolved
16:48over the
16:49course
16:49of the
16:50last
16:50125
16:50years
16:51and I
16:52want to
16:52step back
16:53from that
16:53and ask
16:54why does it
16:55have that
16:55shape
16:55what's going
16:56on here
16:57what could
16:58we mean
16:58by that
16:59graph
17:14what's going
17:16on here
17:17the
17:18way
17:20to
17:21the
17:23the
17:23the
17:23the
17:24the
17:25the
17:26the
17:26the
17:27the
17:28the
17:29the
17:30the
17:30the
17:30the
17:32the