Previewing the Louisiana Derby: Horse-by-Horse Analysis

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00:00So we can head on out and look at the field for the Louisiana Derby.

00:03These are all horses that are based locally in Louisiana.

00:07They've been sort of running there.

00:08That's where their trainers and their owners have their horses based.

00:12And then we'll see the same sort of grouping of horses out in Kentucky for Turfway Park.

00:18Next week, we'll see the horses down in Florida for Gulfstream,

00:21and we'll also see Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby.

00:24So all over, you'll have these groupings of horses,

00:27and the top two or three from each of those groups will go on and all compete in the Kentucky Derby.

00:32So you'll get sort of the best of each section across the country,

00:36and actually now even more than the country where we've gotten international,

00:39and we get horses coming from all over the place.

00:42Alexa, let's see who's going to get themselves qualified this week.

00:45And we start out going horse by horse in the Louisiana Derby with an undefeated runner,

00:50John Hancock.

00:51He actually won the Sam F. Davis, which is a pretty big race over at Tampa Bay Downs.

00:56And the horse that he beat in that race is named Owen Almighty.

01:00Owen Almighty just came back and won the Tampa Bay Derby.

01:03So John Hancock beat a nice horse who's actually made his form overall look even better

01:09now that Owen Almighty came back and won.

01:11Yeah, I mean, this is the horse to beat in here.

01:14I will expect him to be really forwardly placed in the race.

01:16The only bummer is drawing the one position,

01:20because this horse is going to want to go straight to the lead,

01:23and that's not really where you want to be right on the rail.

01:26But that being said, I mean, like you said, undefeated.

01:29Who he's beat is coming back to win.

01:31So a serious contender.

01:33When you're talking about the best trainers and the best jockeys,

01:37Brad Cox is like top three to the top five at the most on any list right now.

01:43He's one of the absolute best.

01:44Flavian Pratt is probably top two on most people's lists right next to Irad Ortiz Jr.

01:49So you have one of the best trainers and one of the best jockeys teaming up with John Hancock.

01:55Chunk of Gold came on running late in the Risen Star.

01:58He did finish second.

01:59He was well defeated that day,

02:01but he seems like a horse who's at least moving in the right direction, Alexa.

02:05Yeah, I mean, he was 43 to 1 that day,

02:08so definitely outran his odds.

02:10Broke slowly, encountered some traffic, but still managed to close strongly.

02:14So I do think a cleaner trip could make him a serious contender,

02:16and he should have a fast pace to run into.

02:19Number three, Tiztastic was fifth in the Rebel most recently.

02:24He had some trouble a couple starts back in the southwest.

02:27That was the race where I could make an excuse for him.

02:29Last time out, I think he was a little bit disappointing.

02:31I was expecting more from him.

02:33What do you think about Tiztastic in here?

02:35Yeah, he's a really consistent performer.

02:37You know, he's placed in three of the four derby preps,

02:39including a third in the Risen Star after a wide trip,

02:42but his only wins have been on the turf.

02:45So, I mean, experience and class are upside,

02:48but I think he would definitely need to improve based on what we've seen this weekend.

02:52The number four, Yinzer, is a horse who's really fast early on.

02:56He was able to win his last start

02:58because not very many other horses were pushing him on the front end.

03:02I'm just worried in this race

03:03where he's going to have to deal with other early speed, Alexa.

03:07Yeah, I mean, that's a negative, but also potential positive

03:10if John Hancock were to get kind of stuck on the rail.

03:13Like, he could be one to set the pace in here,

03:15but I think he would need some serious race luck

03:18and others' misfortune to win this one.

03:22Caldera goes out for D. Wayne Lucas, the Hall of Famer.

03:25We saw him jump into the Kentucky Derby scene last week

03:28with a win in the Virginia Derby.

03:30He also has a horse running at Turfway Park,

03:33so he could have a couple horses

03:34that make their way into the starting gate.

03:36Caldera was a horse who was impressive,

03:40but also disappointing at the same time in the Sutherland Derby

03:43because he continued to move forward,

03:45but gosh, he looked like he was going to win that race pretty easily

03:49at the top of the lane.

03:50If you bet him, you were probably feeling really confident

03:52that he was going to blow right by,

03:54and he kind of hung a little bit,

03:56and the horse on the inside getaway car battled back.

03:58So I'm not that high on getaway car.

04:01That's where I'm kind of hemming and hawing on him, right, Alexa?

04:03Right, because getaway car came back

04:05and disappointed in the Virginia Derby last weekend as the favorite.

04:08So you're kind of like,

04:09eh, that's not a super good mark for Caldera,

04:12but he is versatile.

04:13He has versatility in running styles.

04:16He's been on the lead.

04:16He's been able to close.

04:17So from that point, there is upside.

04:20The extra furlong, they're adding some distance,

04:22I think could suit him well.

04:25So interesting play.

04:27And what makes this particular race really challenging

04:29and really fun to look at as a better,

04:32none of the real like top three or top five horses

04:36in this division right now or in this race.

04:38So it's more spread out.

04:39It's kind of wide open.

04:40There's nobody that's going to be an overwhelming

04:42short price favorite in here.

04:44You don't have one of the Bob Baffert horses

04:45who's kind of always going to take a lot of money.

04:48Bilt, though, is one of the more proven horses, Alexa.

04:51He ran second in the LeCompte and then third in the Risen Star,

04:55which are the prep races before the Louisiana Derby.

04:58So he is one of the better of this group.

05:02I just worry a little bit with him.

05:03How far does he really want to go?

05:05Like, is this distance a little bit farther than his best?

05:08But he's certainly capable from a talent standpoint

05:10of competing with these.

05:12I agree.

05:13I have him underneath in my selections.

05:15He didn't get the lead early in that last race,

05:18which he wanted.

05:19So they are adding blinkers this race,

05:21which might help him push through and get the spot he wants.

05:24But it is definitely a distance question

05:26if he can sustain his run.

05:27The horse that I'm really interested in here

05:30is the number seven, Vossimo.

05:32He ran such a weird race in the Risen Star last time out

05:36because he was sitting third down on the inside.

05:38He wasn't too far behind the horses

05:40that were on the front end.

05:41And then he started to back up.

05:44Just looked like he was done.

05:45After backing up, he moves to the outside

05:49and he re-rallies and he comes on again.

05:52So, Alekta, I love when a horse like that

05:55gets an equipment change.

05:56Because to me, that shows me this horse has some ability,

05:59but maybe mentally he's not quite there yet, right?

06:02He's got to figure it all out and put it together.

06:04That's what the blinkers could really help

06:06with a horse like Vossimo.

06:07So he might be interesting as a horse

06:10who's still green, still learning.

06:13But if he can put it all together,

06:14I think there's some talent there.

06:16Yeah, I didn't use him, but I mean,

06:17you have a really convincing argument there.

06:19Definitely has talent, like you said,

06:21adding blinkers, adding some distance.

06:25So it's liable to make an improvement for sure.

06:28The one thing I'd be worried about

06:29is that when Irat Ortiz Jr. rides a horse,

06:32they almost always get bet.

06:34So he might get overbet a little bit

06:36just off the connections.

06:37But if he is like eight, 10 to one,

06:39it's probably pretty fair in here.

06:41Furio feels like one who's going to be

06:43forwardly placed, right?

06:44We're going to try to get to the lead.

06:45That's where he's been at his best.

06:47Yeah, I think so.

06:48I mean, this horse is drastically improving every start.

06:50It's going to have to do it this weekend

06:52without the Lasix though.

06:54Would need another big improvement.

06:56So you're going to get long odds on him.

06:57And I actually could see using him underneath

07:00as a price play since we just definitely,

07:02I don't think I've seen a ceiling yet.

07:04The outside two, I think both kind of interesting.

07:06You like the nine a little bit here, right?

07:08Coming off that big win.

07:09Yeah, the nine.

07:10He likes to come from off the pace and close,

07:12which is how he won his last race

07:14at fairgrounds last month.

07:15Beat Furio that day that we just talked about by five lengths.

07:19There's a stat you can't ignore with trainer Brad Cox.

07:22When his horses are running for the second time

07:24off of a layoff, like instant replay is,

07:27wins 30% of the time.

07:28And that's with a sample size of 150 horses.

07:31So he just really is good at getting his horses

07:34in the winner's circle second off the layoff.

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