Kentucky Derby Points and Races: Weekend Preview & Best Bets

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00:00For our final segment this week, we're going to talk about the Kentucky Derby points list,

00:05and we have a couple races this weekend where you have horses trying to get some points and

00:09get qualified for the Kentucky Derby. I believe we have a graphic that shows the Kentucky Derby

00:14points leaderboard right now with the standings, and no surprise to see a couple of Bob Baffert

00:20runners up towards the top. But Matt, basically between now and April, every week to every two

00:27weeks, there's going to be another track that has a prep race where there's big races, big horses

00:31picking up points, and we're going to be following along over the next four or five months.

00:35Absolutely, and it's going to be a lot of fun. Obviously, as you get deeper into the season,

00:39these prep races get more and more points, so this leaderboard is going to see a lot of changes over

00:43the next couple of months. We're going to start in your neck of the woods. We're going to head

00:46out to Aqueduct for the Jerome. It's going to go as race number eight on Saturday, and it's

00:51a one-turn mile there with Kentucky Derby points to the top five finishers. That's going to happen

00:56for this race at Aqueduct and the one at Oaklawn Park. And just kind of talking about this race

01:01overall, Matt, I think to the outside, McAfee is going to be a major, major player in here.

01:07No surprise, David Aragona, who does the morning lines, he's as good as anyone out there. He

01:11installed him at two to one on the morning line, and it looks like the outside, it's kind of the

01:15strength of the field. You have the really proven Studley Do-Right, who's been in a bunch of these

01:19stakes races for a while. Cyclone State is kind of quicker. He's won a couple in a row. Those three

01:25towards the outside will probably take the bulk of the money in here. Yeah, I would imagine so.

01:29And McAfee, we should mention, is the half-sibling to the likely horse of the year, Torpedo Anna,

01:34which is just yet another reason why that horse is going to take a lot of money. But I do think

01:37you can question just how good the competition is that this horse has faced to this point. You've

01:42not seen a lot of quality runners come back from those races and coming out of, quite frankly,

01:47a starter allowance race, which is not really a stakes prep that you would see. Cyclone State,

01:52very good horse, but hasn't really passed a lot of other horses before. And there is other speed

01:57to the inside that Cyclone State's going to have to deal with. So either it's going to have to be

02:01the speed of the speed and really push early or learn how to rate. Studley Do-Right, like you said,

02:06has kind of, has the most back class, won the Nashua over this track going this trip. I actually

02:11think the horse, I Can, the number three horse, might provide a little bit of value at eight to

02:15one. This one had a really tough go last time out, almost went down to its knees, got up and still

02:20ran, I thought, a really good race. So there's some opportunity for value. I really like Studley

02:24Do-Right in this spot as just a horse that just kind of runs his race every time. Yeah, Matt will

02:28go with the seven, three, eight, six, looking at this race. I went to McAfee, just thought that

02:34from the outside could sit a good trip. But I do agree with you, if you're looking for some value,

02:38maybe the two Mancetti or the three I Can, those would be the horses I think could represent a

02:43little bit of value in this race. Studley Do-Right is the most proven. And McAfee right now, one of

02:48the busiest guys out there. You see him on college football. He's announcing on Monday Night Raw all

02:52over the place. He's got his show. So McAfee, he's the one to beat in the Jerome. Let's flip the page

02:59and head on over to the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn. They have a really fun series of races, Matt.

03:04That's kind of when I think of Oaklawn, I think of the three-year-old series that they have

03:08leading into the Arkansas Derby. We've seen a lot of horses through the last few years

03:13use this road to success in the Kentucky Derby. Last year, we saw Torpedo Anna and Mystic Dan

03:20both use success from Oaklawn Park in the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby. So

03:25maybe one of these horses we're looking at could be a future Kentucky Derby winner. This field,

03:31it's a little interesting because I think from a pace standpoint, we have to start talking about

03:36the one, Cale's Angel, who's one of the quicker in there. But I'm a little concerned that this

03:41horse stretching all the way out, Matt, with other speed in the race, a horse like the six

03:46Hot Property is also pretty quick. I kind of look at the six as the horse to beat in here.

03:51I agree. Aside from everything you mentioned, also trained by Brad Cox, owned by the West family.

03:57Here's a little stat for you. Over the last five years, Brad Cox runners owned by the West

04:02have won 45% of non-graded stakes races. Hello, that's not a bad number. So this is one that's

04:08got a real big pedigree. And like you said, I'm a little concerned Cale's Angel, I think an

04:12excellent sprinter stretching out to two turns. I have my questions going to be fading that one.

04:17Yeah. I think both of us feel like if they go too fast early on, like maybe Cale's Angel and Hot

04:24Property and a couple others hook up. It could set up for the horse to the outside. Yes. Whole

04:29battle who may not be the best horse in five months, right? This might not be a Kentucky

04:34Derby horse, but as far as right now is concerned, he's the most proven in this race. He's a horse

04:41who you've seen against stakes company compete really well. He won the springboard mile. His

04:45three most recent races on the main track are all wins and his two races on the turf are where he

04:51lost. So I think he fits really well in this group, Matt, and he could get a nice setup.

04:56I agree about the setup. I think he absolutely fits the races on the dirt progressively get

05:00better. And he answered a big question last time, which is he won over a fast track. His other two

05:05dirt appearances were over a wet track. So I think there's a lot going for him. Smaller connections,

05:10likely to actually be a pretty honest price come post on 6815 for Maddie there. I'll put the eight

05:16on top of the six, five and seven.

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