Race Analysis: Key Horses and Strategies For Winning

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00:00So let's jump on in Alexa to race number seven where we start with I think we have to start with the nine and you

00:06Can talk a little bit about this one because he's the horse to beat in here

00:09He's the horse to beat in here and we went skinny in this leg, you know to try to get some value

00:13We only have two horses in here. So the nine like you said can't pale

00:17Um five to two two and a half to one morning line odds has gotten second

00:21And both starts from being on the pace as well as closing time for me

00:25Does give him the best early speed and predicts him to be on the lead

00:28He has two bullet workouts coming into the race. Um, and even though he hasn't

00:33Won, he's defeated some horses who've come back to run really big numbers

00:37He beat a horse named patch adams who came back to win by 10 in their next start

00:41He was right behind a horse named guns loaded who came back to win the mucho macho man stakes last week

00:47We'll throw the six in camp stop munnings. Look who he just lost to patch adams. So we were just talking about him

00:52Uh can't stop munnings are also lost to another really nice horse in the debut named built

00:57So can't stop muddings could maybe get us a little bit of value in here

01:01But no doubt the one they'll all have to beat is camp hail

01:04So we'll use the six and the nine trying to make it through race number seven

01:09If we have one of the winners there, then we'll be alive heading into race number eight

01:13This one is a difficult one. Alexa. It's a group of ten thousand dollar claimers

01:17So some lower level horses and they're going to be going on the all weather synthetic surface

01:22Which we have dirt turf and synthetic surfaces

01:25Some horses are unique and they like this surface a little bit better, but it's a tricky race

01:30I thought there's a lot of ways we can go in here

01:32Uh, you're gonna start out talking about the the one in the 12 a couple that we have

01:36Yeah, we spread in here. We're using four horses the one amuna at 10 to one odds

01:41Um, I wanted to include this long shot because she has a pattern of winning after a long layoff

01:47She's had three career wins and each one has been coming off the layoff

01:51And she's coming off a two and a half month layoff here. She is a closer

01:54So don't expect to see her until kind of late on the scene

01:57We'll also use the number 12 smart spending at four to one odds four to one odds for the barboza barn

02:05Who's quite hot right now with a 24 percent win rate and she's hit the board in every race

02:10But two in 2024 and had consistently improving speed figures

02:14She's also a closer who likes to sit off the pace and come at the end

02:17A couple others that we'll have on the ticket the number eight grandma's pudding

02:21She should be close up throughout all three of the wins have been on synthetic

02:25I'll take some chocolate, please

02:27And then the nine bismaline if you can eliminate that last race

02:31All of the form before that is really really good

02:34This horse just got cut off last time out was actually favored in a similar type race

02:39So I think you can be a little bit forgiving and make an excuse for that effort

02:43We're gonna end up going four deep

02:44So we'll use the one the eight the nine and the twelve

02:47We need one of those horses to win just one of them

02:50The other horses doesn't really matter where they finish at all

02:52As long as one of our horses wins we move along to the next one, which is race number nine

02:57So we go on the turf here alexa in uh in race number nine

03:01We're gonna just use two horses in this one as well. Uh, the horse to beat you can start with

03:06That's definitely the number six right dream on yeah number six dream on morning

03:10Dream on dream on sorry. I was waiting for that one

03:15Now this is a very talented colt who's been running against tougher grade one competition last start was in the grade one breeders cup

03:22Juvenile turf where he led the majority of the race before getting passed for fifth place, but only by two and a quarter lengths

03:29He's a favorite like I said, and I really just see him having more ability than the rest in here

03:34Should be able to get that leading position

03:36He wants with just a little bit of pace pressure probably from the two who I think will fade

03:40Yeah, i'm big on film, you know think about it in this kind of perspective

03:44If you're watching a football game after the game you go back and re-watch the game

03:48you'll probably find things that aren't in the stats or maybe things that were missed or things where you could feel like

03:54Ah, if that would have gone a little bit differently the result of that game might have changed

03:58That's the kind of stuff i'm looking for when i'm watching replays on horses and the number three city of oscars

04:04Just had no chance in his last race. Alexa got completely stopped

04:08Uh, and I think it's one of those races where you just eliminate it

04:11You don't take a whole lot out of it because we can't really gauge what happened

04:15When a horse doesn't get a chance to run if you're playing him off of his races before that

04:19They were very good and you and I both like this horse as a little bit of a price

04:23So we're going to include the three city of oscars along with that very likely heavy favorite dream on

04:30Dream on as we uh move to the sunshine classic

04:34Uh, i'm not in quite as good a form right now

04:37I got to get some of my my musical talents. Uh,

04:40Like warmed back up. Let's get to the sunshine classic remind everybody

04:43We went through this race with the horse by horse preview

04:46But we are going to use four horses in here to try to make it through

04:49Yeah, this is a tough race like we said in the first segment

04:52So we're using for the number two

04:54Cosieris at eight to one odds back to gulfstream and at a comfortable level of competition after competing against much tougher

05:02Who's won four out of nine starts at gulfstream and just has a habit of hitting the board?

05:07Um the number four secret chat at three to one probably the one to beat coming off of a win

05:12Um who has won two out of three tries against this florida bread competition?

05:17The five awesome train at ten to one odds

05:19This is my top pick coming off of two straight wins with very strong speed figures looks to be in peak form

05:26And then the nine lightning tones at 12 to one odds another price and a closer in the race with a lot of pace in here

05:33So has some pace advantage who has the stakes when at gulfstream already under his belt

05:38So hopefully we've picked the winners of the four races leading us into race number 11

05:43If that's the case, we'll get to a mile in a 16th race

05:47Uh, it's a twenty thousand dollar claiming level and we're gonna have three possible horses here to close out our ticket

05:53Alexa, why don't you start us out with the speed horse to the outside?

05:57Yeah, if you guys look at the time for me as graphic on the screen

05:59You'll see that has like an icicle in the top, right? It says slow pace, um, which favors front runners

06:05So we like the 11 rough draft. Um, who?

06:08Should be favored as the lone speed

06:10Is that a fair amount of changing hands over the last few months?

06:13But now is back with fernando abreu train him consistently for all the 2024

06:18Uh consistent and improving horse the three nantasket beach

06:22Probably the horse to beat coming off a really consistent stretch of six races

06:26And then what we'll do we have the speed to the outside. We'll give ourselves a shot with the two media sensation

06:32Who's a closer? Let's see that ticket producer rich producer. Mike. What does it look like?

06:36I think we put together a 96 ticket no singles on the sequence

06:41Remember, we just need the winner of one of those horses in each race

06:45If we do we'll be alive and hopefully we can cash that ticket

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