Kentucky Derby Analysis: Journalism and Favorites in Focus

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00:00I'm used to NBC spending eight hours every year talking about Bob Baffert at the Kentucky Derby

00:07and no one else. Yeah, he's back. He served his sentence three years out of it. And he's back

00:15with a vengeance with a couple of good ones in here. Not my top picks, actually, though. I've

00:21landed on journalism, and I really hate picking the favorite who is going to be the favorite.

00:24But I just think this horse is so good. So buyer speed figures are like our standard of measuring

00:32speed in horse racing. And he ran a 108 last year. To put that in perspective, the last

00:3611 Derby winners have not run that figure. The fastest winning Derby figure was a 105.

00:41So he's really fast. He's got a good running style. Like all derbies, this race is going

00:47to have like a ton of speed in it. So he's got kind of like a mid-pack closing running

00:52style. And I think it's just going to set up really, really nicely for him. He has

00:57been running in small fields, though. He's been running like five and six-horse fields.

01:01So you can maybe throw some shade at him that way and look at some other ones in here. But

01:07he's beat a lot of the really other strong contenders in here already. So I'm just really

01:13impressed with him. I'm going to use him. I'm not going to single him, though. I'll throw

01:16some others in there. I like Sandman a lot. Sandman's the number 17. So that's like the dreaded

01:21post position. It's the only post position that has never won the Derby. This is the

01:25151st running. So you could hear the groans.

01:30But Jose Ortiz is a badass. I think he's a great jock. And I got to ask you about Rispoli.

01:38Does he have the stones to pull this off and win with this journalism? I know journalism's

01:43won four straight races. And can McCarthy and Rispoli do this? We know what Ortiz is capable

01:48of. Yeah, I mean, Umberto's like one of the best out there, I think. So I think he definitely

01:54has it. But you're right. I mean, Sandman's got good. These are all the best connections,

01:59right? Everybody's fighting to be in this race. So from a connection standpoint, yeah,

02:04I mean, Simon looks really good. He I have been in love with this horse since his performance

02:09in January in the Southwest. So the horse like went to his knees at the break almost. And you

02:16were like, oh, my God, is the horse OK? And then not only was he OK, he like came and closing

02:22like crazy at the end. He ended up losing by a couple of lengths. But showing that kind

02:28of grit is a huge deal in a race because the Derby is a race you're never going to get your

02:33way. It's never going to set up perfectly exactly how you want it. So I like seeing that from

02:37a horse ahead of time that, you know, he can he can handle it. And then he won the Arkansas

02:42Derby last out really convincingly. He is 0 for 3 at Churchill, which is, you know, a

02:47bummer. But those were a lot earlier in his career. So I really like like Simon quite a

02:53bit. There's also the seven Luxor Cafe, who's a Japanese horse, right? Is that not the horse

02:59that races in the Far East? And he's won a bunch of races as well, like four in a row

03:04over there. Four in a row, two of them by five lengths. He's been favored in all six

03:10of his races he's ever run. And the Japanese contingent gets stronger and stronger every

03:15year. Last year, you probably could say they had the best horse for every young who found

03:20some trouble late in the stretch and lost by a nose. But he's looking really good. All

03:24of his running lines, which just give you a little feeling of how the horse acts throughout

03:30the race, just say like he takes command. So I like seeing that. And then I have to

03:35comment on the number 21 Baeza. So not yet in the Derby is the one alternate entry. So

03:40if one horse scratches, he'll get in. And I just really want this horse to get in. I think

03:46it's a good story. First of all, he's very talented, but also a really good story because

03:50his mom is the mom of the 2023 Kentucky Derby Winter Mage. And then also the mom of 2024

03:57Contender Doorknock owned by MLB star Jason Wirth and then won the Belmont. So the third

04:03leg of the triple crown. That's right. That's right. I interviewed him at the Super Bowl after

04:07he won the Belmont. That's fantastic that he's into horse racing now. I think it's great.

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