Top Picks and Odds for the Upcoming Kentucky Derby

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00:00Let's talk now about the Derby field as we have the field set up.

00:04Who are some of the horses that you've liked as we followed along,

00:07and how are you going to stack them with your top picks for the Derby?

00:10Well, there is a few horses here that you can play with.

00:15Like, for example, Final Gambit.

00:18I know this is a, what, 20-to-1, 30-to-1 horse?

00:22Yep.

00:23You know, the question mark is, you just want to tour for a park?

00:26But remember, re-strike, finish there on that specific race,

00:31and they won the Kentucky Derby.

00:33And also, unfortunately, because what happened with Japan's tree,

00:37now Brad Cox is going to be more focused on that horse.

00:40He's the only horse by Brad Cox, which is, two months ago,

00:44you would say Brad Cox is going to have at least four or five horses in the Derby.

00:48Yeah.

00:48Now it's only one, and it's a long shot.

00:51So that is the kind of horse that I'm going to be looking for,

00:54for the Sactas and Trifecta.

00:55My horse is definitely going to be sovereignty.

00:59But you also have to recognize that journalism is the best horse of the crop.

01:06That doesn't mean it doesn't, you know, the older horses doesn't have any chances,

01:11but you have to respect that horse.

01:13Yep.

01:13And actually, the way that he's been working in the mornings,

01:17you can see it is different.

01:19He carries himself a little different, right?

01:22He tells you, hey, I'm the leader of this crop, you know.

01:27And it's going to be hard to beat.

01:29Yeah.

01:29Also, because having all the speed on the left,

01:33probably Rispoli is going to use four or five horses as a fullback.

01:38You know, if you go to NFL or football, you can see Rispoli,

01:42it can be just right behind all of them and take a very nice first turn,

01:47which is very important in the Kentucky Derby.

01:51The first turn is when, you know, a lot of races are decided.

01:55So, Berto, anyone else you want to mention?

01:58We've got Final Gambit as kind of your big price play.

02:00Journalism has no doubt the horse to beat that you're using.

02:03Who would you have underneath them?

02:05I'm going to have, actually, I'm going to have the sovereignty.

02:08Sovereignty, right?

02:09That's your topic?

02:10Sovereignty is on my topic.

02:11Okay.

02:11That's my topic.

02:13And the reason why is because it's a better value.

02:15Because if you look at journalism, like 3 to 1 or 5 to 2,

02:21I'm not going to bet a horse that low in a 19-horse field.

02:25You have to at least guarantee me 25 cents per horse,

02:30which is going to make like, what, 5 to 1 probably?

02:34That's the minimum that I'm going to take.

02:37So that's why I went to Sovereignty,

02:39which is, I think, is not the same horse that journalism is,

02:43but he has the same chances.

02:48You know, it's going to be a third of the cycle.

02:50Two races at Gothring, that's not his track.

02:53I mean, Gothring is not a racetrack for a horse with this style.

02:58It's a more front-running track, right?

03:00The horses who are fast, fast, and better for them versus the closers.

03:05This horse shouldn't win the Funtown Youth.

03:07It still won't.

03:08And remember, Manny Franco wrote him the last time.

03:13Now it's going back to Junior.

03:15And I was asking Junior, hey, Junior, do you like the post?

03:18The post position said, no, I don't like it.

03:20I love it.

03:21It's perfect for him.

03:23So I think this is the horse that you're going to get a better value

03:26and maybe equal chances that you can have with journalism.

03:30That's why I decided to win with the number 18.

03:34I'm going to play journalism underneath.

03:35I'm going to play the number three and also publisher.

03:39This horse, I know he's a maiden, but he has a great spot,

03:42and he got iraq.

03:45So I think he's going to be in the mix.

03:48I think he's going to be in the mix.

03:50Roberto will go 18-8-3-13.

03:54I'll hand the baton over to you, Alexa.

03:56Talk us through your top picks.

03:58Yeah, I did land on journalism.

04:01I just think he's so talented.

04:02And like what Roberto was saying, it's kind of a standout as the boss in the field.

04:08And, I mean, those are herd animals.

04:10Her dynamic really comes out to play in the Kentucky Derby.

04:13So I did land on him.

04:15I won't be playing him alone.

04:18I do think there's some better value ability when you're betting it.

04:23I know we're going to get into that later in the show on how we're actually going to bet the race.

04:26So to try to leverage him to get better value out of the race.

04:29But Sandman underneath, who I do think is going to be taking a lot of money because of Griffin Johnson.

04:38I know when you have 10 million followers and you're telling them to go bet your horse.

04:43I know our Matt earlier said he thought it must be a lot of DC comic fans out there.

04:48But I'm like, no, I think it's more of a Griffin thing.

04:50It's going to affect the price on there.

04:52So we might get lower odds than expected on him.

04:55But Luxor Cafe, that Japanese contingent, who looks really strong as one last four races in a row.

05:02Two of them by five lengths.

05:03And then I have Burnham Square on the screen.

05:06I might, I really do like Baeza.

05:09Like, if Baeza gets in the field, I would probably put him up in that spot.

05:13But Burnham Square is another good long shot.

05:15And, Gina, I'll throw it to you because I like Grande as well.

05:18Yeah, Grande is a horse who I'm going to put on top based on value.

05:22I think he's going to be in that 15, 20 to one range.

05:25Journalism we all have.

05:26And then Sovereignty, I think, is a real solid horse.

05:29I'll throw Rodriguez in the mix.

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