Grande: The Unexpected Contender in This Year's Derby

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00:00Who's the top pick this year?

00:02Hey, maybe they're going to accuse me of being a homer up here in New York,

00:05but I'm going to go with Grande, who is the runner-up in the Wood Memorial.

00:08This is a horse for trainer Todd Pletcher.

00:10It's interesting, Pletcher and owner Mike Rapoli have come in with the favorite

00:14or the presumptive favorite the last two years with fierceness and forte,

00:17but had nothing but heartache.

00:19Now they come in with a long shot in Grande, but this is a son of Curlin.

00:22Tons of pedigree to suggest he's going to like the mile and a quarter.

00:25I think he's super versatile.

00:26He showed that he can have a plan B coming from further off the pace

00:30last time out in the Wood, and I think he's just ascending at the right time.

00:34He can take another step forward in terms of those buyer speed figures,

00:37and I think he's right there.

00:38He's going to sit the trip behind some of that early pace

00:41and then make his move maybe a little similar to the way Mystic Dan

00:44won this race last year.

00:46Okay, Matt, I'm Venmo-ing you $100 right now, so just check your phone.

00:50It's in there.

00:51We want to know how are you going to bet the Kentucky Derby this year

00:55with that $100 that I just sent on over to you.

00:57Give us some of the ways you're going to play it.

00:59Absolutely, and listen, I'm going to, of course,

01:02put $50 to win on Grande as my top pick, but listen, I'm not foolish.

01:07Journalism is a monster of a horse, and you're a presumptive post-time favorite,

01:12although there's a lot of Metallica fans out there apparently

01:14when you look at the advanced wagering because Enter Sandman

01:16is taking a lot of money.

01:17So, listen, I'm playing Grande and Journalism up top in my trifecta.

01:23So, when we play out these vertical wagers, in the number one position,

01:26I have both Grande and Journalism.

01:28Then in the second position, Journalism, Grande obviously continued,

01:31but I add two other horses.

01:33Burnham Square, a horse that I really was impressed by

01:36when I was on site last week at Churchill Downs.

01:38He's been working so well, winner of the bluegrass.

01:41And then, of course, Sovereignty, super classy horse

01:44who has long been pegged as a major Kentucky Derby player

01:47since he won the Street Sense at Churchill Downs last year.

01:50Then in my third position, I throw in a couple of other big prices.

01:53I agree with you that Rodriguez is the most likely of the speed horses

01:56to hold on for maybe a piece, and so he's kind of in that third position.

02:00And then you look at some horses like Tiztastic and Chunk of Gold and Coal Battle,

02:06all horses that I really like who should sit the right sort of trip,

02:10kind of sitting just off the pace in terms of Coal Battle

02:12and Tiztastic and Chunk of Gold, Tiztastic a little bit more of a deep closer,

02:17but certainly very talented.

02:18Then when you go with the Xacta, same sort of ticket structure basically,

02:22Journalism, Grande up top, including a few other prices

02:25underneath all the horses that I already mentioned.

02:27And then I got to give a shout out to my dad

02:29because when I went to the track, he taught me how to play horses,

02:33and he got me playing $2 show bets when I was 10 years old.

02:37And so for my dad, I got to put $2 on Chunk of Gold to show

02:41because that's the sort of bet my dad would have made at Penn National

02:44back in 1990 when he took me to the track for the first time.

02:47Matt, what's so great about that is I think we all have the stories

02:52with mom, dad, grandma, grandpa, someone who kind of took us to the track

02:56and who took us under their wing and started to teach us the races.

02:58And so you've got that sentimental wager there for pops.

03:02But what I like about what you did is you've got a way where you could make

03:07a ton of money off that $100.

03:09Like if that trifecta hit in the correct way, we were showing some of the payouts

03:13earlier for like pick fives and pick sixes and explaining that if you get

03:18the right connection on Kentucky Derby Day in the derby race or in the races

03:22leading up to the derby, it's one of the biggest days of the entire year

03:26in horse racing wagering.

03:27You could literally have a life changer.

03:30Like for example, let's say your trifecta came back with Grande.

03:35And then in the second spot, you had a horse like Burnham Square in the second spot.

03:41And then in the third spot, you had a horse like a Rodriguez or a Cole Battle

03:45or someone like that chunk of gold.

03:47You could have a really big payout on that trifecta.

03:51Yeah, absolutely.

03:52I think that's the key with layering these exact as trifectas when you're doing

03:55these sort of vertical wagers is taking a stab, taking a shot so that you have

04:00an opportunity for a huge payoff, but also keeping yourself a little protected.

04:04Like I said, I'm going to include journalism and I'm going to include a horse

04:07like Sovereignty who's going to probably be a little bit of a shorter price.

04:09My big stance is I'm against Sandman.

04:11I just think that horse needs to learn how to run in a straight line.

04:14And until I see him do that, I'm not going to bet him in the Kentucky Derby.

04:17But obviously that Arkansas Derby was very impressive.

04:19But, you know, it's one of those things where let's say even journalism wins.

04:24But if you still have Burnham Square or Grande finish underneath,

04:27chunk of gold finish underneath, you're still going to get a really handsome payout.

04:31So even with a favorite winning, you can still get paid out really well

04:34in these exact as trifectas on Derby Day.

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