Impact of Speed Horses in the Race Strategy Analysis

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00:00When they drew the field last week on Saturday night and a lot of the speed horses ended up down

00:05on the inside they might be impacting each other and one of those speed horses is the two-year-old

00:11champ from last year's Citizen Bowl kind of comes into this race though off a disappointing effort

00:15but when he's down on the inside and he's trained by Bob Baffert who's won this thing what six times

00:19now you know they're going to try to get out of the gate and be quick early right? Absolutely the

00:25plan is to obviously move forward he had that massive five furlong work this week 58 and two

00:30a lot of people thought that might have been a little too fast of a work in fact but you know

00:34listen he's got one plan and that's to go to the front he's a different sort of animal when he's

00:38on the lead but I think that Santa Anita Derby kind of exposed the fact that maybe he's if he's pressed

00:43a little too much he's vulnerable that said Bob Baffert insinuated that he wasn't really in top

00:48shape for that Santa Anita Derby and he joked now he's ready for the Santa Anita Derby he's gotten

00:54some big workouts in out in California leading up to this race and he's going to be a major pace

00:58presence early on. Alexa what are you going to do with the two-year-old champ from last year?

01:02You know it's really interesting usually the two-year-old champ if they make it to the Derby is

01:06going to be the favorite or one of the you know second or third favorites in here and you see that

01:10morning line at 20 to 1 or plus 2,000 odds I mean that's that's showing there's some you know

01:16tibiness about him and and I understand that I also agree but then you look at what he's done and you're

01:22and you look at those odds and I'm like oof if he does end up going off over 10 to 1 it is tempting

01:28to include him. Matt the number two Neo Equus was one of the last horses who qualified for the

01:34Kentucky Derby and just on paper he feels like he's going to be one of the longer shots in the field

01:39likely be showing some early speed I just don't know if he's going to be around late what do you

01:44think about him? Yeah I I think the plan for them is probably dependent upon what Citizen Bull does I

01:50mean if Citizen Bull quarter horses it out of the number one hole then I would imagine Neo Equus is

01:54just going to drop down to the rail and follow Citizen Bull around the track as long as he can

01:58you know it's he's an honest horse coming out of that Florida circuit but it does make you think

02:04about a horse like rated by Merritt who was a Florida bred who was easily beating him and it was

02:08unfortunately taken off the Derby trail before he had much of a chance but yeah Neo Equus is going to

02:12be a huge long shot and for me I just don't really see a winning trip for him. Alexa he's trained by one of the

02:18top trainers in Florida Safi Joseph Jr. Do you give Neo Equus a shot? Yeah he is a great trainer and

02:25first time for Neo Equus out of Florida he's ran every basic goal stream and I kind of think of

02:30Doorknock last year right who really needed the lead and then when he just didn't get there drew the one

02:35hole it was just over before it even began and I do have concerns for Neo Equus that could be a

02:40similar trip. And while we have you Alexa we'll talk about the three final gambit who is the Jeff

02:45Ruby stakes winner. He's going to try dirt for the first time. You give us a couple thoughts on him.

02:49I mean it's a big move right to try dirt for the first time in the Kentucky Derby but he has the

02:55breeding for it. Sires 19% on dirt routes and 26% for marathoners which is you know one and a quarter

03:01mile or more. So there's just still a lot of unknowns for him at 30 to 1. I don't think he's the craziest

03:08play underneath but definitely definitely a stretch in here. Matt final gambit goes out for trainer

03:15Brad Cox who would probably be one of the top three to five trainers in all of U.S. racing right

03:21now and he had a lot of horses that we thought were going to make the field for the Derby. Even

03:25about a week and a half ago he had a horse named Tapam Street who would have been one of the major

03:29players but now we look around and it's just final gambit. Do you think he has a chance first time on the

03:34dirt? You know he needs to trip out obviously and the good news for him is he's got a lot of speed

03:40around him and he doesn't have any speed and so he's going to let that speed go up you know go up

03:44front. He's going to drop down to the rail as well hope to save a lot of ground from there and then

03:49make that one big run but you know listen the last speed figure was a 90 which is a perfectly

03:54respectable speed figure but it also is a little bit of a standout. His three speed figures before that

04:00we're all in the 60s so it's a little bit of a question of is that last race an anomaly and can

04:05he back it up?

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