Analyzing Top Contenders for the Upcoming Kentucky Derby

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00:00Let's kind of go through different groups of the horses in here, Alexa.

00:03I want to kind of pick your brain a little bit and maybe give the folks out there a couple

00:07horses that might be on our radar.

00:08So right now, it looks like journalism will be a heavy favorite, kind of head and shoulders

00:14above the rest of the field.

00:15It's like him and then everybody else in that next tier.

00:19Do you feel that as of right now, journalism is kind of head and shoulders above?

00:23I mean, journalism is tough.

00:26Like, I think journalism showed us a lot in the Santa Anita Derby that he won.

00:32Just so much grit.

00:33He's won four out of five starts.

00:36I think journalism is a valid favorite, but you know, the Kentucky Derby, it's so hard

00:40to play a favorite because the field is so deep and so competitive.

00:44In that top range, Luxor Cafe is one of the horses from out of the country.

00:50So a horse that we don't really have as much information on here in the U.S.

00:54Sovereignty, we know he was running at Gulfstream Park for U.S.

00:58Connections.

00:59Tapan Street actually beat Sovereignty when they ran against each other in the Florida

01:03Derby.

01:03I'm not surprised to see, you know, them right there.

01:06I actually wouldn't be shocked if Rodriguez ends up taking a little more money, Alexa,

01:10because that's a Bob Baffert trainee.

01:12And the Baffert runners tend to take a lot of money on Kentucky Derby Day because he's had

01:17so much success and the fans that aren't the most hardcore betting fans, even if they're

01:23only playing a few bucks, they know Bob Baffert.

01:25They know that name.

01:27Yeah.

01:27I mean, you have to give respect to him at the Derby.

01:30He knows how to win this race.

01:31But Luxor Cafe is really interesting.

01:34I have not, I want to preface this, I have not made my Derby selections yet.

01:39I am waiting to see how the field draws, to see how it shakes out on Saturday before

01:43I make my-

01:44positions, right, where everybody is.

01:46Get a total feel for the race, how it's going to set up, where those speed horses are going

01:50to be.

01:51You know, if your favorite speed horse draws the one hole, you're not going to be super

01:55happy about that.

01:57But so the Japanese contingent gets stronger and stronger every year.

02:01I would say last year, they probably had the probably winner.

02:04I mean, it didn't win, but forever young, you know, ran into some trouble in the stretch

02:09and just lost by, what was it, a nose.

02:11Um, but Luxor Cafe, really interesting, has three wins, one place.

02:16Um, I'm excited about Luxor.

02:18Of the next grouping of horses, uh, Sandman, he won the Arkansas Derby.

02:24Burnham Square, he won the Bluegrass over at Keeneland.

02:28Cole Battle came out of the Oaklawn races where he was really impressive.

02:32He's kind of a rags to riches story.

02:34You have Grande, who was the second place finisher in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

02:39That next group of horses, are there any horses that are on your radar that might be in the

02:43mix for you?

02:44Anyone you want to mention or talk a little bit about?

02:46Sandman.

02:47You know, I've talked about him on this show before.

02:49I, I really like Sandman.

02:52I have liked him ever since, um, the Southwest where he basically almost went to his knees

03:00at the break and it was just, it was scary to watch.

03:04You're like, is the horse okay?

03:05And he was more than okay.

03:07He came back.

03:08He closed from dead last to get second place.

03:12And since then, you know, ran decently in the Rebel and then won the Arkansas Derby.

03:18So I think Sandman is a major player in here.

03:22I'm hoping that they'll be able to keep him a little bit closer up, which they did in the

03:27last race because in the Derby, not that a closer can't win the Derby by any means, but

03:32you know, when you have 19 horses in front of you or 15 horses in front of you, so much

03:39dirt in your face, so much traffic, it becomes, um, it becomes difficult.

03:43And the Derby is really interesting, right?

03:45Because these are herd animals and you often don't really get to see herd dynamics play,

03:52play in a race because one, either the race isn't long enough for those to really develop

03:58or two, there's just not enough horses in the race, but the Kentucky Derby is totally

04:02different.

04:02So you really do get to see all those dynamics play out.

04:05And like we show you often on the time from us with a pace projector on, you know, what

04:10horses pair up, you know, the closers, the early pace.

04:12So that's something that you really see develop in the Kentucky Derby.

04:16So I think Samian's very interesting if he can get a little, not forwardly placed, but

04:21just not so far back.

04:23So far, the horses that we've mentioned to Pan Street is one that'll be in the mix for

04:27me.

04:27And then of this next grouping, Grande, keep an eye on his last race.

04:31He had to go really, really wide in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

04:34I think there's some room to build off of that effort.

04:38Citizen Bull was last year's two-year-old champ.

04:40East Avenue was another one who was really good.

04:42Last year, Alexa, both of those horses are fast early.

04:46Then you have Publisher, who's a maiden.

04:48He still hasn't won a race, but he actually qualified for the Kentucky Derby.

04:52Tiz Tastic was a horse who went over to the fairgrounds.

04:55He won the Louisiana Derby.

04:57Any quick thoughts of the horses in that next group?

05:00I mean, Citizen Bull is interesting, right?

05:01He had so much success as a two-year-old and still, you know, as a three-year-old winning

05:06the Robert B.

05:08Lewis stakes, but then just kind of disappointed, not kind of, like, majorly disappointed in

05:12the San Anita Derby.

05:13So it's interesting because, again, a Baffert horse, so will he take that money or not?

05:17I'm probably going to get off of Citizen Bull for this race.

05:21What are your thoughts on him?

05:22Yeah, I agree with you.

05:23I'm kind of cold.

05:24He's won races where he was able to get the lead in smaller fields, and he was able to

05:29control everything.

05:30I just don't think that's going to happen in a race like the Kentucky Derby with a few

05:33others that have speed.

05:35And we talked about the traffic.

05:37If something goes amiss for him early on and he's not right on the lead, I just don't like

05:42his chances.

05:43So I'm going to be against him there.

05:45Next group, we have Tiztastic, Admire Daytona, American Promise.

05:51Chunk of Gold is kind of an interesting long shot, a horse that they did not pay a bunch

05:55for, and he's run really well in his two races on the dirt.

05:59And then towards the bottom of the group, Flying Mohawk, Owen Almighty, Bilt.

06:03Mention one or two of those, Alexa.

06:05Well, we just hear that Bilt is not going to be in the Derby, right?

06:08Yep.

06:08Yeah.

06:08So they've just announced the news that he's going to run in a different race earlier on

06:12Kentucky Derby Day.

06:13Yeah.

06:14So that means Neo Equus for Safi.

06:16Joseph is now in the field.

06:18And for those rooting for Baeza, who, you know, whose mama was the mama of the Kentucky

06:24Derby winner two years ago, and then also Sired a horse who was the mare to a horse who

06:29ran last year, only needs two more scratches to get in the field.

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