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Analyzing Top Contenders for the Upcoming Kentucky Derby
SportsGrid
Follow
4/27/2025
Category
🥇
Sports
Transcript
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00:00
Let's kind of go through different groups of the horses in here, Alexa.
00:03
I want to kind of pick your brain a little bit and maybe give the folks out there a couple
00:07
horses that might be on our radar.
00:08
So right now, it looks like journalism will be a heavy favorite, kind of head and shoulders
00:14
above the rest of the field.
00:15
It's like him and then everybody else in that next tier.
00:19
Do you feel that as of right now, journalism is kind of head and shoulders above?
00:23
I mean, journalism is tough.
00:26
Like, I think journalism showed us a lot in the Santa Anita Derby that he won.
00:32
Just so much grit.
00:33
He's won four out of five starts.
00:36
I think journalism is a valid favorite, but you know, the Kentucky Derby, it's so hard
00:40
to play a favorite because the field is so deep and so competitive.
00:44
In that top range, Luxor Cafe is one of the horses from out of the country.
00:50
So a horse that we don't really have as much information on here in the U.S.
00:54
Sovereignty, we know he was running at Gulfstream Park for U.S.
00:58
Connections.
00:59
Tapan Street actually beat Sovereignty when they ran against each other in the Florida
01:03
Derby.
01:03
I'm not surprised to see, you know, them right there.
01:06
I actually wouldn't be shocked if Rodriguez ends up taking a little more money, Alexa,
01:10
because that's a Bob Baffert trainee.
01:12
And the Baffert runners tend to take a lot of money on Kentucky Derby Day because he's had
01:17
so much success and the fans that aren't the most hardcore betting fans, even if they're
01:23
only playing a few bucks, they know Bob Baffert.
01:25
They know that name.
01:27
Yeah.
01:27
I mean, you have to give respect to him at the Derby.
01:30
He knows how to win this race.
01:31
But Luxor Cafe is really interesting.
01:34
I have not, I want to preface this, I have not made my Derby selections yet.
01:39
I am waiting to see how the field draws, to see how it shakes out on Saturday before
01:43
I make my-
01:44
positions, right, where everybody is.
01:46
Get a total feel for the race, how it's going to set up, where those speed horses are going
01:50
to be.
01:51
You know, if your favorite speed horse draws the one hole, you're not going to be super
01:55
happy about that.
01:57
But so the Japanese contingent gets stronger and stronger every year.
02:01
I would say last year, they probably had the probably winner.
02:04
I mean, it didn't win, but forever young, you know, ran into some trouble in the stretch
02:09
and just lost by, what was it, a nose.
02:11
Um, but Luxor Cafe, really interesting, has three wins, one place.
02:16
Um, I'm excited about Luxor.
02:18
Of the next grouping of horses, uh, Sandman, he won the Arkansas Derby.
02:24
Burnham Square, he won the Bluegrass over at Keeneland.
02:28
Cole Battle came out of the Oaklawn races where he was really impressive.
02:32
He's kind of a rags to riches story.
02:34
You have Grande, who was the second place finisher in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
02:39
That next group of horses, are there any horses that are on your radar that might be in the
02:43
mix for you?
02:44
Anyone you want to mention or talk a little bit about?
02:46
Sandman.
02:47
You know, I've talked about him on this show before.
02:49
I, I really like Sandman.
02:52
I have liked him ever since, um, the Southwest where he basically almost went to his knees
03:00
at the break and it was just, it was scary to watch.
03:04
You're like, is the horse okay?
03:05
And he was more than okay.
03:07
He came back.
03:08
He closed from dead last to get second place.
03:12
And since then, you know, ran decently in the Rebel and then won the Arkansas Derby.
03:18
So I think Sandman is a major player in here.
03:22
I'm hoping that they'll be able to keep him a little bit closer up, which they did in the
03:27
last race because in the Derby, not that a closer can't win the Derby by any means, but
03:32
you know, when you have 19 horses in front of you or 15 horses in front of you, so much
03:39
dirt in your face, so much traffic, it becomes, um, it becomes difficult.
03:43
And the Derby is really interesting, right?
03:45
Because these are herd animals and you often don't really get to see herd dynamics play,
03:52
play in a race because one, either the race isn't long enough for those to really develop
03:58
or two, there's just not enough horses in the race, but the Kentucky Derby is totally
04:02
different.
04:02
So you really do get to see all those dynamics play out.
04:05
And like we show you often on the time from us with a pace projector on, you know, what
04:10
horses pair up, you know, the closers, the early pace.
04:12
So that's something that you really see develop in the Kentucky Derby.
04:16
So I think Samian's very interesting if he can get a little, not forwardly placed, but
04:21
just not so far back.
04:23
So far, the horses that we've mentioned to Pan Street is one that'll be in the mix for
04:27
me.
04:27
And then of this next grouping, Grande, keep an eye on his last race.
04:31
He had to go really, really wide in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
04:34
I think there's some room to build off of that effort.
04:38
Citizen Bull was last year's two-year-old champ.
04:40
East Avenue was another one who was really good.
04:42
Last year, Alexa, both of those horses are fast early.
04:46
Then you have Publisher, who's a maiden.
04:48
He still hasn't won a race, but he actually qualified for the Kentucky Derby.
04:52
Tiz Tastic was a horse who went over to the fairgrounds.
04:55
He won the Louisiana Derby.
04:57
Any quick thoughts of the horses in that next group?
05:00
I mean, Citizen Bull is interesting, right?
05:01
He had so much success as a two-year-old and still, you know, as a three-year-old winning
05:06
the Robert B.
05:08
Lewis stakes, but then just kind of disappointed, not kind of, like, majorly disappointed in
05:12
the San Anita Derby.
05:13
So it's interesting because, again, a Baffert horse, so will he take that money or not?
05:17
I'm probably going to get off of Citizen Bull for this race.
05:21
What are your thoughts on him?
05:22
Yeah, I agree with you.
05:23
I'm kind of cold.
05:24
He's won races where he was able to get the lead in smaller fields, and he was able to
05:29
control everything.
05:30
I just don't think that's going to happen in a race like the Kentucky Derby with a few
05:33
others that have speed.
05:35
And we talked about the traffic.
05:37
If something goes amiss for him early on and he's not right on the lead, I just don't like
05:42
his chances.
05:43
So I'm going to be against him there.
05:45
Next group, we have Tiztastic, Admire Daytona, American Promise.
05:51
Chunk of Gold is kind of an interesting long shot, a horse that they did not pay a bunch
05:55
for, and he's run really well in his two races on the dirt.
05:59
And then towards the bottom of the group, Flying Mohawk, Owen Almighty, Bilt.
06:03
Mention one or two of those, Alexa.
06:05
Well, we just hear that Bilt is not going to be in the Derby, right?
06:08
Yep.
06:08
Yeah.
06:08
So they've just announced the news that he's going to run in a different race earlier on
06:12
Kentucky Derby Day.
06:13
Yeah.
06:14
So that means Neo Equus for Safi.
06:16
Joseph is now in the field.
06:18
And for those rooting for Baeza, who, you know, whose mama was the mama of the Kentucky
06:24
Derby winner two years ago, and then also Sired a horse who was the mare to a horse who
06:29
ran last year, only needs two more scratches to get in the field.
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