Discussing Kentucky Derby Prospects and Key Horses at Aqueduct

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00:0020 points will be awarded to the winner.

00:02There's only a field of seven in here,

00:04Alexa, and to be honest,

00:06the Withers and some of the New York

00:08races earlier in the season,

00:10they haven't been as strong races

00:12when you're talking about developing

00:14Kentucky Derby prospects,

00:15but a good horse can come from anywhere

00:17and one of these horses,

00:19maybe a couple of them will end up in

00:20the starting gate come Kentucky Derby Saturday.

00:23Let's start with Global Steve.

00:25So this is a mile and an eighth race at Aqueduct.

00:27Global Steve is two for two.

00:29He won both of his races over at parks.

00:31One of them was on a sloppy track.

00:33He will stretch out though for the first time.

00:35He goes two sprints to a route in here.

00:38How do you think he stacks up?

00:39Do you give him a chance with this group?

00:42You know, interesting.

00:43Like you said, undefeated.

00:44They're adding that distance today,

00:46but when his trainer and jockey team up,

00:48they've won 28% of the time.

00:49So, and that's with a very large sample size

00:52of over 80 horses.

00:53So that's a very significant stat,

00:55but his speed figures are a little bit

00:57of a cut below some others in here.

00:58So I do think we'll need an improvement,

00:59but I think it's possible for him to show us

01:03an improvement based on what we've seen so far.

01:05And the numbers that Alexa was referencing,

01:07you can find those in the daily racing form,

01:10past performances.

01:11And we always give you a code where you can go get

01:13all access past performances.

01:15We have an entire database of statistics.

01:18You can go through every horse,

01:19their last five years, everything.

01:21And you can like formulate the stats however you want.

01:24It's just like a wealth of information there.

01:26You can check that out with the

01:27all access past performances over at drf.com.

01:30Let's move to Surfside Moon.

01:32His lone win came going a mile on the turf.

01:35So he's kind of a tough read for me,

01:37but I will say this rider,

01:39Ceviche who came down from Woodbine

01:41and you and I knew are very familiar with,

01:43he's been fantastic so far.

01:45And a very aggressive rider seems to just pick horses up

01:48and put them on the front end.

01:49So I'll give that a positive,

01:51but I just need to see more from him overall on the dirt.

01:54Yeah, I'm not really feeling him in here.

01:57I didn't see the kind of improvement I wanna see

02:00from a two-year-old that makes me think,

02:02oh, this is a derby caliber horse.

02:04But then again, he's been off since October

02:07and running it too is hard.

02:10And sometimes they do need that time

02:12to grow into themselves and learn.

02:14So it'll be interesting to see this three-year-old debut.

02:17But again, workouts coming into this

02:19are really, really slow.

02:20So I don't love seeing that either.

02:23The number three, Corvus, is a New York bred

02:26and his lone win came against New York bred.

02:28So this is an open race where he's gonna be facing horses

02:31that were bred all over.

02:33He did lose to a couple of nice horses though

02:35in his last few races, Alexa.

02:37A horse named Sand Devil, who is two for two, he lost to.

02:40He also lost to Cyclone State,

02:42who you'll see all throughout the running lines

02:44of a lot of these horses.

02:45And that horse has won their last three,

02:48including the Jerome last time out.

02:50Can you make a case for Corvus?

02:52I mean, Corvus has been steadily improving every race,

02:56I think.

02:56I think this is gonna be a very tough spot for him.

03:00I don't know if I think he can win.

03:01I think he could hit the board maybe,

03:03kind of round out the bottom of the exotics.

03:05But he should be trying to come from off the pace.

03:08And if you look at the time from U.S. pace projector,

03:10it does indicate this should favor the front runners,

03:14the ones on the lead a little bit more.

03:15Yeah, that might be the problem.

03:16He's gonna be coming from way, way out of it here,

03:18maybe more of a horse to pick up some pieces.

03:21Uncle Jim has raced twice.

03:22He won his career debut,

03:24and then he came back in his second start.

03:25He lost to Cyclone State,

03:27who we see in a lot of these horses' past performances.

03:31Cyclone State came back to win the Jerome in his next start.

03:34And I'll say for Uncle Jim,

03:36it was his first try going long.

03:38He kind of loomed up, he took a shot,

03:40and then he just faded.

03:41He tired a little bit.

03:42We see horses do that

03:43when they have that progression sometimes.

03:45They have to kind of build the foundation up,

03:47going a little bit longer.

03:49I don't really have knocks on him, Alexa.

03:51He's just gonna need to improve

03:53to get the better of some of the top horses in here.

03:55My only knock on him is the odds.

03:59We're given three-to-one morning line odds,

04:01which, again, is just a guess of what the odds

04:03are gonna be when the race goes off.

04:04It's all determined by how much money

04:06people wager on each horse.

04:08But I would want more of him to bet him.

04:12That's the key, right?

04:13You want more value on that.

04:14So as gamblers, we have to be patient.

04:18We also have to demand that value.

04:20Remember, there's so many ways we can get action in.

04:22You don't always have to feel like,

04:23I have to throw some on this.

04:24Wait, be disciplined, especially if you're someone

04:27that's watching this and you're playing baseball,

04:29football, basketball.

04:30There's a lot of different options.

04:32Always be disciplined and demand value as a gambler.

04:35Let's move to Moe Quality, Alexa, the number five,

04:38who we both like because his overall body of work,

04:42it's really good.

04:43I love horses like this that I can go through

04:45each of his races and they make sense.

04:47His career debut, he finished second.

04:49He lost to a really nice Wesley Ward horse

04:51that is named Touchy, who's a stakes caliber horse.

04:55Then in his second start, Moe Quality wins.

04:58He breaks his maiden over at Churchill Downs.

05:00Then in his third start, he runs in the Smarty Jones

05:03in a stakes race at Oaklawn.

05:05He finishes second that day,

05:06loses to a nice horse named Cole Battle.

05:08And one of the horses he finishes in front of,

05:11Kale's Angel, is a really nice sprinter.

05:13He came out of that race and he won a sprint stakes race

05:17and then the next time out,

05:17he just makes a lot of sense in here.

05:20Yeah, I mean, never been worse than second.

05:22And if you're looking at the composition of those races,

05:25I mean, two of those were 11 horse field.

05:26So obviously if a horse is getting second

05:29in a five horse field, it's much more impressive.

05:31And an 11 horse field when they're having

05:33a lot more competition, you know, handled the distance,

05:37handled the move up in class pretty well.

05:39So I would expect improvement in the second time out

05:42going long distance, he makes sense.

05:43We move to Captain Cook.

05:45Shout out to Jesse Pinkman.

05:48Now, Captain Cook was a winner last time out

05:51and it was a really impressive win over at Aqueduct,

05:53but it was in the slop.

05:55So when a horse wins like that on a sloppy track,

05:57I'm always a little trepidatious, right?

05:59Because was it the sloppy track that did it

06:02or was it just the improvement?

06:04But he's certainly heading in the right direction.

06:06Absolutely, I mean, one by over nine lengths.

06:08So you're like, wow, but slop carries speed

06:11and also can be hard for other horses to make up ground.

06:15So makes sense in here, definitely could be one to beat,

06:19but getting that morning line favorite odds.

06:22Check, check, check, check, check, check.

06:24Omaha, Omaha, Omaha, as Peyton Manning would say,

06:28we round out the field with Omaha, Omaha.

06:30Another one who was behind Cyclone State last time out.

06:33He was second in the Jerome

06:35and you kind of know what you're gonna get

06:36with this guy, Alexa.

06:37He's just a deep closer.

06:38He's gonna drop back.

06:40He's gonna hope they go fast early.

06:41You see him way behind on the pace projector.

06:44He's the number seven, far behind everyone else.

06:46But if they go fast, he will come closing.

06:49He will, I have included him as my second choice in here.

06:52He's used to running long distances.

06:54He's that closer, the added distance should help,

06:57but it's just, favoring front runner sucks,

07:00but I like Omaha, Omaha.

07:02So let's get two selections

07:03as we get set for our next commercial break.

07:06Alexa and I will both put the five,

07:08low quality with that versatility.

07:10He has some speed, but he can pass horses.

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