Previewing the Risen Star Race Field & Top Contenders

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00:00as we move to take a look at the field for the Risen Star,

00:03you're getting to the point now where you're only gonna have

00:05like two real swings at it, right?

00:07Two real cracks at trying to get into the field.

00:09If you get in a little bit of trouble,

00:11if you don't have the best trip,

00:12you may only have one other shot.

00:14So right now we're starting to get anxious time

00:16for a lot of these horses trying to get their derby points.

00:19Let's meet the field for the Risen Star.

00:21This is going to be race number 14 on a big card

00:26on Saturday, February the 15th over at the fairgrounds.

00:30Alexa, we start with the number one,

00:32American Promise from the inside,

00:34was in the Southwest most recently,

00:36kind of hopped at the start,

00:37didn't come all the way up to second pressing.

00:40This guy for the coach D. Wayne Lucas from the inside,

00:43I'm expecting big speed from him.

00:45You can see on the projector,

00:47they have him one of the faster horses

00:49in this field early on.

00:50Yeah, I really like American Promise in here

00:52as the son of Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown winner,

00:55Justify, like you said, likes to be on that lead.

00:59In his last race, he just didn't get his way.

01:01Like you said, he hopped at the start,

01:03then had to spend so much energy and gas to get up front

01:06and then tired, then lugged in,

01:08actually got himself disqualified cutting off another horse.

01:11It just wasn't great.

01:13But I think if he got a better break that day,

01:15he would have made a huge impact

01:17and we're getting 12 to one odds on him.

01:18So I like American Promise.

01:21We got news that Jonathan's way, unfortunately,

01:23he's going to scratch from Saturday's race.

01:25They had an unsatisfactory blood count.

01:27So we won't be talking much about Jonathan's way.

01:30He would have been a major player in here.

01:32We can move to Vossimo, who is two for two.

01:34He won over at Tampa.

01:36He's kind of been in the news also.

01:38We'll keep on him.

01:39He had a test that came back.

01:40It's kind of like up in the air right now.

01:42But as far as this particular race, Alexa,

01:44what do you think about him in this spot?

01:48Kind of interesting.

01:49He actually sold for 120,000 as a yearling,

01:51which is 55,000 less than a stud fee.

01:54And stud fee is how much your owners pay for that seed.

01:58His dad was 175K a pop, so lucrative business there.

02:01But you usually want your horse to sell at least three times,

02:04more like five to 10 times is a great sale.

02:06So when they sell less, that's a little bit of a red flag.

02:08Like, was he just not looking that good?

02:12But I mean, he's run okay in his few races.

02:15So I think he's a wild card in here.

02:16He could step up, rise to the occasion,

02:19but he would need to improve from what we've seen so far.

02:22Thank you for the definition of stud fee.

02:23I thought that was my salary.

02:25That's what I was told I get paid was the stud fee,

02:28but I guess it has a double meaning there.

02:31East Avenue was the Breeders' Cup juvenile favorite, Alexa,

02:34and he was a major, major player in there.

02:36He looked like the horse to catch,

02:38stumbles out of the starting gate,

02:39and we haven't seen him since.

02:41So this will be the starting point for him for 2025.

02:45Now, I still think he's one of the better horses

02:47in this division, but we do have to keep in mind,

02:50his goal is the Kentucky Derby.

02:52So his goal is three races from now

02:55to be primed for his absolute best.

02:57He should be ready for a big race,

02:59but he might not be 100% fit for this race.

03:02Yeah, and East Avenue loves the lead.

03:05And so the Breeders' Cup already

03:07was gonna be a really hard race for him

03:08because he drew the one hole.

03:09And when you want to shoot to the lead,

03:12you don't want that inside position

03:13where you can get caught in tight, pinned on the rail.

03:15And then with the bad break,

03:17it was just no shot for him there.

03:18So like you said, they might not have him

03:20perfectly tightened up for this race,

03:22but if he gets a luckier trip,

03:24I think he could absolutely be the one to beat

03:26and secure his spot in here.

03:27And think about this.

03:28Like if you had a bad game, a bad race,

03:32what you're going to do is the next time you come out,

03:35you're going to at least make sure

03:36you do what has worked well for you.

03:38I think they're gonna be very adamant and aggressive

03:40about making sure he gets to the lead,

03:42he gets out of the starting gate well,

03:44and they put him on the front end.

03:45If he doesn't finish, well, that's a different story,

03:47but I think they're gonna make sure they get to the spot

03:50where he's had really good success before.

03:52What do we do with Chunk of Gold?

03:54The next one up, the number five,

03:55who's gonna be making his first start on the dirt.

03:57He's run twice on the synthetic over at Turfway.

04:01Yeah, I mean, this horse has a fast late kick.

04:03So I do think that's the best like upside

04:04or advantage in here, but I don't think he's good enough.

04:07Seattle Road is the next one.

04:09That's the number six.

04:10The lack of early speed from him hurts a little bit.

04:13He was actually 79 to one in the LeCompte,

04:16which is the earlier series of races at Fairground.

04:20So against a lot of these same rivals,

04:23he was 70 to one.

04:24Can you make a case for him in here?

04:25I can't, I cannot.

04:27He's not running well enough against similar opponents.

04:29He's about 20 speed points lower than he needs to be.

04:32Septarian, the next one up, the number seven,

04:35is a horse who actually won at Charlestown and at Laurel

04:39at smaller tracks.

04:40And then he moved into the Chad Brown barn

04:41for the first time.

04:42He was a fine third in the Mucho Macho Man.

04:45He put the blinkers on.

04:47And I mean, if you're just talking about connections,

04:49Chad Brown, Flavian Pratt,

04:50you've got Eclipse Award winners teaming up with Septarian.

04:54I like Septarian.

04:55Chad adding blinkers today for the first time

04:57is a trainer move that he's really savvy with.

04:59He wins 30% of the time when he adds them.

05:03This horse has also had two bullet workouts in a row.

05:06And a bullet workout just means of all the horses

05:08that worked out at that location at that distance that day,

05:11his time was the fastest of anybody.

05:14So he's definitely looking fit, training well,

05:17and I think has some upside

05:18and could be worth including underneath

05:20at long odds at 12 to one.

05:22The number eight is the Keith DeSormo trained Geoco.

05:25So he's a little bit of a tough read for me, Alexa,

05:28because both of his wins have come on the turf.

05:31So I'm just not quite sure how good he is on the dirt.

05:34Yeah, I think he could like the dirt more than the grass,

05:38but even with the surface change,

05:41I just don't think he's quick enough

05:42and from a pretty low percentage trainers,

05:45he's not doing great at the moment.

05:46And he hasn't raced since the very beginning

05:48of November too.

05:49So for him now, we're starting to get to a point

05:51where the layoff might be an issue.

05:53I thought the number nine built made a lot of sense in here.

05:56He ran on a sloppy track last time out in the LeComte, Alexa

05:59he actually ran second that day.

06:01And I don't even think he liked the track,

06:02even though he ran second,

06:04he looked like he was just kind of getting there on class.

06:06I feel like now getting back to a fast track,

06:09he's a major player.

06:11And when you look at like East Avenue,

06:13who might be a little bit short in this race,

06:15maybe he's not quite as fit late or it's like built.

06:18Maybe he's not the Derby winner,

06:20but I could see him running a big race in this spot.

06:22Maybe just being a little more fit and a little more ahead

06:25at this point of the year than some of his rivals.

06:27I agree.

06:28I think built a good play in here.

06:30You know, as one half of his starts

06:31and the first we're on the lead.

06:34And then like you said, last out,

06:35even though he didn't win, he came from off the pace.

06:37So I think he's tactical and makes sense.

06:40There's a horse next out the number 10 render judgment.

06:42I think you can make some excuses for his last two races.

06:46It was a little bit wide at Churchill Downs

06:47in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

06:49And then most recently he stumbled at the start.

06:52I could see him being a price horse that hits the board

06:56and a horse that maybe spices up some of the exotics.

06:58Any thoughts on render judgment?

07:01I was waiting to hear what you thought

07:02because I was like toss, I don't like them.

07:04And then I saw them in your picks.

07:06So I didn't see those trouble lines in his past starts,

07:09but I'll leave that to you.

07:13But I do know that you'd like one of the longer shots

07:16in the inside we talked about.

07:18So we're looking for some prices here and there.

07:20Any of these outside horses on your radar?

07:22Jolly Samurai is next up.

07:25I'm passing on all the outside 11, 12, and 13 for me.

07:29I just think this is a really tough spot

07:31for all of them to be in.

07:33We're looking at Valmos Carlitos.

07:34I think of those outside three, Alexa,

07:36I might give him a little bit of a look.

07:38His overall form isn't bad and he's faced softer company,

07:41but if you eliminate that grass race,

07:44the rest of the races really make sense

07:46on the 12 Valmos Carlitos.

07:48And then we see Magnitude,

07:49the number 13 rounding out the field.

07:51Again, he's a horse who you could probably eliminate

07:54that race on the sloppy track

07:56and the rest of the form makes sense.

07:58So big field, they're gonna have to improve a little bit,

08:01but a couple to the outside that maybe you could use

08:03in the bottom of exotics.

08:05Let's move to selections here.

08:06Alexa, what are you gonna do with this one?

08:09I have American Promise on the front at 12 to one

08:12followed by East Avenue and Built.

08:15I put Built on top.

08:16I just think the timing is perfect for him.

08:18I have Built, East Avenue,

08:20and then I think you can find some value underneath

08:22with the horse like Render Judgment,

08:24maybe the 12 to the outside.

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