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Analyzing Favorites & Contenders at Keeneland Race 6
SportsGrid
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10/25/2024
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🥇
Sports
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00:00
So this one is the Bowman Mill, talk to us about how you like in this race.
00:06
Yeah, this is a two-year-old race, so a lot of these are babies, and well, they're all
00:10
babies, and I like the number four, Macho Music, who is the likely favorite, but he's
00:15
run three times and won the last two by nine and a half lengths and four and a half lengths,
00:21
so that's pretty impressive.
00:22
But what I like the most is that he's already won at this meet going over the Keeneland
00:27
course, which is a big leg up against all these other babies who have never, ever run
00:31
at Keeneland.
00:32
You know, his running style is to go to the lead and not look back, and Timeform US projects
00:37
right there, that's exactly what he's going to do.
00:40
Macho Music, ooh yeah, gonna be right on the front end, politically correct, I think as
00:44
a horse who has some versatility, who can sit just off, so if there is a little bit
00:48
of early pace pressure, politically correct, who has some backlass, probably could get
00:52
the jump on maybe a horse like Middy's Gritty or some of the deeper closers in here.
00:56
So we'll use the speed of the four, we'll use the five, politically correct, who's also
00:59
faced some really tough foes.
01:02
As we move into race number seven, it's the second leg of the sequence, Alexa, talk to
01:06
us about the horse who you like in here, that's the number two.
01:10
Yep, number two, Mrs. Astor, morning line eight to one odds or plus 800.
01:15
You know, this race has a lot of pace in it, and she has the best closing speed, so what
01:20
I'm really hoping for is a pace meltdown for her to run at.
01:24
She went off at odds of 52 to one last out in a big step up in a grade three race at
01:29
Keeneland just this past Sunday, and she definitely outperformed those odds, losing by only three
01:35
lengths.
01:36
So her trainer, Jonathan Thomas, is bringing her back on super short rest, but he's proven
01:40
successful doing this before, so he must think she's just really at her peak fitness in her
01:45
form cycle right now, and that last week didn't take that much out of her to bring her right
01:49
back.
01:50
I like the four a little bit in this race.
01:52
That is bell of rights.
01:53
It's going to make her second start back off of a short break for a barn.
01:57
That's a really patient barn, so generally they do well with horses like this who are
02:01
coming back after making a few starts off layoffs, and I thought in her last race in
02:06
the Virginia Oaks, she was facing pretty tough company.
02:08
The top four finishers in there, they would all be pretty live contenders if they were
02:12
in this race, so I think she's just getting much softer competition in here.
02:16
She could sit a nice trip if they go too quick early.
02:19
One of those horses who will be going quick early is Cahill Beach, who you and I both
02:23
liked and looks like the speed of the speed, so if anyone's going to take this field gate
02:28
to wire, it's probably the number 11 in here, Cahill Beach, so we'll end up going three
02:33
deep in there with the two, the four, and the 11 as we turn the page to race number
02:38
eight.
02:39
That's the race that we just discussed, so Alexa, why don't you recap for everyone?
02:43
Who are we going to be using in that race?
02:45
Absolutely.
02:46
We did the deep dive, but for the pick five, we're going to use the number two, Tuma Roomba,
02:51
at six to one, likely early pace leader of the field who's gotten first or second in
02:55
every start this year, four of those being graded stakes.
02:58
We'll also use the favorite hit show who won both the West Virginia Governor's Stakes and
03:03
the Lucas Classic for his last two starts in his prime for trainer Brad Cox, and we'll
03:08
try to close late in the game, and the number nine, Grand Aspen at 10 to one, a price play
03:13
that Gino likes in this field who's coming off that long layoff and should be sitting
03:17
behind Tuma Roomba and had three dirt races last year where he almost won at grade three
03:22
at Gulf Street.
03:24
Let's get to the ninth race.
03:25
That's the grade three Bryan Station.
03:27
You and I are big fans of the racing up at Woodbine.
03:29
You've made some trips up there.
03:31
We cover the racing there quite a bit, and one horse who's done a lot of his work up
03:35
at Woodbine is my boy Prince.
03:37
Talk to us about him and a couple others in this race.
03:41
Yeah, my boy Prince, number four, a 15 to one odds.
03:45
I really liked him in the Kings play this August.
03:48
He was my favorite, and he was everybody's favorite.
03:50
He was the betting favorite.
03:51
He ended up getting second place and then ran in the Woodbine mile last out and disappointed,
03:55
but you know, that was grade one, so tougher competition than he'll face today.
04:00
I think he's the best of the early speedsters in here.
04:03
He's won half of his 12 starts and been in the money 10 out of 12 lifetime starts, so
04:09
he's just not one to ignore, especially at these odds.
04:12
If these odds hold, we'll be the longest we've ever had on him, even when he's run against
04:17
tougher.
04:18
And that's just like, yeah, go ahead.
04:19
The 11 also, right?
04:20
Yeah.
04:21
Chakari, the 11, two to one likely favorite, a grade one and grade two winner, 1.3 million
04:27
lifetime earnings, so very accomplished horse.
04:30
This race doesn't have a whole lot of pace up front, so the fact that Chakari has that
04:35
tactical speed or does, sorry, does have a lot of race up front.
04:39
So he has that tactical speed and has shown us in the past that he can win from a number
04:43
of different pace scenarios.
04:45
He can be on the lead.
04:46
He can also sit back and hold off and close.
04:48
So I think his best bet tomorrow will be to hang off his pace and make a bit of a late
04:54
run in his most recent races.
04:56
He's been not too far off some really talented horses like Johannes, who's probably going
05:01
to be favored in the Breeders' Cup Mile next weekend for millions of dollars in the World
05:06
Championships.
05:07
So we're looking for horses with the same kind of running style, right?
05:09
Because you point out with Trickery, who wants to sit pretty close, I think the three is
05:14
a really fun price horse to Hershey, who was not far behind Brilliant Birdie, had legitimate
05:19
traffic that day.
05:20
If you're someone who likes to watch replays, check out how this horse was blocked and never
05:24
really had a shot.
05:25
So we give ourselves an opportunity with a big price horse who could be sitting in a
05:29
really nice spot behind the leads and then maybe get the jump on some of the deep closers.
05:33
So hopefully we can make it through the Bryan Station and we'll turn the page to race number
05:38
10.
05:39
This is a really difficult maiden race to close it out, Alexa.
05:43
High level maiden claimers, $150,000 maiden claiming ranks.
05:47
You and I just threw in a bunch of price horses that we really liked.
05:51
Talk to us about the two that you wanted on the ticket.
05:53
This is a tough race.
05:54
I'm going to use the number four, Stay Frosty at 12 to 1.
05:57
A first time starter by Frosted, whose first time starters do tend to outperform the average
06:02
on Dirt Sprinters.
06:04
Also the 10, Frack Baby, 12 to 1 odds.
06:08
Also a first time starter out of a Sire, whose babies tend to outperform.
06:12
The Time For Mia's breeding rating on Frack Baby is 100 out of 100 for Dirt Sprints.
06:16
So he's just not one I'm going to leave out.
06:19
Yeah, we'll mention the five, Thunderhawk, and the eight, Free Country.
06:22
Thunderhawk, flash speed, going longer.
06:24
Free Country was in a race that set up for a deep closer.
06:27
They were flying early.
06:28
You're actually going to see Middy's Gritty running earlier on on the card in that sixth
06:32
race, which is a stake.
06:33
So let's take a look at how we've put together the pick five.
06:36
Remember, you multiply the amount of horses you use in each race.
06:40
So we'll use the four and the five.
06:41
That's two horses.
06:43
Two times three, as we use two, four, and 11, is six.
06:46
Times three is 18.
06:48
Times three is 54.
06:50
And then we multiply by four.
06:52
And since it's a 50 cent ticket, we divide by two.
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