Decoding the Dynamics of a Five-Team Horse Racing Parlay

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00:00But Alexa, just to remind everyone, this pick five, it's like a five team parlay or a five

00:08player prop parlay.

00:09We have to have the winner of every one of these, but we are allowed to use multiple

00:14horses in each race.

00:15We just have to spend more money every time we use an extra horse.

00:19And as you and I were joking about when we were putting this one together, this was the

00:23dart throw race where our best opportunity is if you and I just took some darts and threw

00:28them because we probably have as good of a chance picking the winner that way.

00:32Honestly, yeah, I think we're using like 60 or 70 percent of the horses in this race.

00:37This race was so, I looked at it and I was like, I don't know if I'm going to win.

00:40Yeah, you're second line.

00:42So the first one we're going to use is the number one parchment part, four and a half

00:47to one morning line, one of the most lightly raced horses in here with only three career

00:51starts who won the first two and then had an 11 month break, came back last month and

00:56ran a losing race.

00:57Yet the fastest race has ever run.

00:59So a closer who should improve off that second off the layoff.

01:02We'll use the number two game warden who had a disappointing, uncharacteristically bad

01:08performance, I think, last out.

01:09But before that ran two bangers at Saratoga with figures that would be competitive in

01:14this field.

01:15The number four Baton Rouge, six to one odds in for Chris Hartman with Rafael Bejarano,

01:21a board who has ridden him in every start so far.

01:24And this horse is just very consistent.

01:26He's been a couple lengths off of some common enemies in here in his last two starts, but

01:31has the talent and the speed to wire this field other than the six who actually is my

01:37top pick in here.

01:37There shouldn't be anyone else, I think, really vying for that early lead.

01:41And we'll use the number five kinetic at four to one.

01:45Another lightly raced three year old with only three starts and two recent wins.

01:50He'd need to improve a bit, but so far has improved in every single start.

01:54And he's got one of the best late pace figures in here and likes to come from way off the

01:59pace.

01:59He came from 11 lengths back last out.

02:01Yeah, you talked about the number six, who is one of the speed horses in here.

02:05Record point.

02:06You have to use that one because the possibilities of him just sneaking away are likely you have

02:11to move towards the outside and look towards a couple other horses like the number 10

02:15Mackman, who was a runner up in the last two races in similar spots.

02:20Would be tough to completely dismiss that one to the way outside.

02:23Sam zero is another one who comes off of a nice recent win.

02:27So there are so many horses in this race that makes sense that you can honestly look towards

02:32that you can make a legitimate case for.

02:34I think we're going to have a bunch of horses between five and 10 to one in here, like a

02:38lot of horses all in that same range.

02:40We want to do our best to just make it through that race.

02:44And if we do, Alexa will get to race number eight.

02:47And you and I both have a pretty strong opinion in here.

02:51Spirit Wind is a horse who's going to take a lot of money, but we like the two uppercase

02:55because uppercase to me is a horse who has some versatility, who has shown the ability

02:59to be speedy and can sit really close or be close to the front end or can sit behind horses

03:05and pass.

03:05And I think in this race, being able to show those multiple dimensions could really be

03:10key.

03:11So for you and I, when we're building our tickets, a lot of the time we look around

03:14which races do we really have a similar opinion.

03:17And those are the races that we'll kind of key in on.

03:19So it was the second leg of our pick five with the number two uppercase where we'll

03:24zig a little bit when I think everyone else is going to zag.

03:27So it all comes down to uppercase for us.

03:29If we can get the single home, then we'll have, I think, three horses in race number

03:33nine to use, right?

03:34Yeah, we're going to use the three horse man.

03:37This is a need the lead or need near the lead type.

03:40And since switching to dirt this summer, he's run three really nice races and won two of

03:45them with really competitive speed figures.

03:46So I'm hoping he'll be a bit more forwardly placed than the time from us projector predicts

03:51in the early stages.

03:52It's a competitive race, but I think at six to one odds, that's more than fair on him.

03:56We'll use the number nine world record.

03:58This is going to be a little bit lower priced odds, a horse with proven tactical speed who

04:04won the grade to Amsterdam this summer at Saratoga going six and a half, and then took

04:08a step back and Alan Jerkins against some seriously tough competition, including domestic

04:12product who just ran in the Breeders' Cup.

04:14He's got two fast workouts and coming into this, I expect him to be the pace setter.

04:19Kind of a fun price horse that we'll also throw in is the number 12 Gulfstream Way to

04:23the outside.

04:24This horse was just third behind Bromley in a spot that was similar and another horse

04:29who kind of has a little bit of versatility, kind of drawn to the outside, has some speed,

04:33can pass horses will now go third, start off the bench after some trouble last time out.

04:38So three, nine, and 12 in the ninth race.

04:41Alexa, we move on to race number 10.

04:43This is the one that we did our horse by horse preview.

04:46So why don't you remind the folks out there who are the horses that we are using in the

04:5010th race?

04:50Yeah, this is the River City Stakes that we talked about already.

04:53I'll recap who we're picking.

04:55Number four, Reckoning Force, who's been running his best races this fall and just looks to

04:59be in peak performance as has that potential to stay close to the early pace and make a

05:04late rally.

05:04The number five, Master of Foxhounds, my favorite long shot in the race, talented seven-year-old

05:09who ran in the Breeders' Cup Mile last year.

05:11And the number eight, Battle of Normandy.

05:13He's been the favorite in his three most recent starts and won all of them.

05:17This will be a class test, but Time for Me Us does project him to be the winner.

05:21And number nine, Gigante, a millionaire for Steve Asmussen, who will be having his second

05:27start off of a long layoff.

05:29So we have a couple of price horses there with the five and the nine who are double

05:33digit odds on the morning line.

05:34We have a couple more logical horses with the four, Reckoning Force, who will be one

05:38of the favorites in there.

05:39And I think Battle of Normandy will likely take some money too.

05:42So hopefully we can get through that point.

05:44We're four for four, Alexa, as we move into race number 11 to try to close things out.

05:49And I think the three in here will be a pretty heavy favorite and a horse that a lot of people

05:54might be singled in on.

05:55And we definitely have the three, but we'll also use another one in here.

05:59Talk to the folks out there a little bit about why we like the three to start.

06:02Yeah, the three, like you said, going to be the favorite, but I think deservedly so.

06:05I probably would have been okay singling on this really consistently on the improve her

06:11entire career.

06:12They cut her back in distance for her last two outs, which resulted in the fastest races

06:16she's ever run.

06:17She's quick early.

06:18She should be able to grab a cozy spot up front.

06:20Yeah, she's run second three consecutive times in very, very logical spots.

06:25So just if she were to show up with the same exact effort, that would probably be good

06:29enough to win it.

06:30I think after you start to build up a lot of seconds, though, sometimes you have the

06:34concern that these are horses that they don't mind settling for a minor award.

06:38So it is nice that will also include the eight who might be kind of a new wild card on the

06:42scene, a horse who had been running on the turf for a lot of the early part of her career.

06:46And then she shifted over and was a really nice winner when she dropped down in class.

06:50So let's put it all together.

06:51What's the ticket look like?

06:53$84.

06:54Remember, it's a 50 cent based wager, and you will multiply the amount of horses you

06:59have in each race.

06:59So we'll use seven horses in that first one, and we'll use three horses in race number

07:05nine.

07:05So we'll multiply them right there.

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