Churchill Downs Race Preview: Graded Stakes Analysis

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00:00Let's get over to Churchill Downs. Let's take a look at race number eight on Saturday. This one

00:04is the grade three Chiluki. There is a really nice horse in here that's probably going to take a lot

00:09of the money and I think they'll all have to really be on their A game, Alexa, to try to beat

00:13that one. So let's meet the field here and we start with the number one, a Monra. This is a

00:18group of fillies and mares, three-year-olds and up. They will be going the one mile. It's a one

00:23turn dirt mile, so kind of the in-between race. They're not sprinting, but they're not really

00:28going a distance, so it's that how far can some of these fillies and mares get the distance.

00:33Number one, a Monra is great at stakes placed, actually ran into the Breeders' Cup filly and

00:39mare sprint winner last time out. She was behind Soul of an Angel when she raced in the Princess

00:44Rooney. What do you think about a Monra and her chances in here? You know, a Monra is interesting.

00:50The last four running lines, it has been, again, some tough competition, but say outkicked, no bid,

00:54empty, and flattened. So I would say, you know, this field is going to be a bit easier, but that's

01:00not super promising. I think they really, really want this filly to be a stakes filly. You know,

01:04they've been running her in graded races or named stakes races for the last year and a half and

01:08she's pulled off a couple places, but hasn't really been able to hit the board a whole lot

01:13and her figures aren't improving. So personally, I think they probably need to class drop and let go

01:18of, you know, the stakes stream here. But it is a homebred and they're weighing that head on this

01:24horse and they're probably going for that black type, which, especially for a filly, it means a

01:28lot for, you know, value of a horse and breeding later on. The number two is probably one of my

01:34favorite horses' names to say. I go with Peagle every time we get a chance to talk about this one,

01:39who is just really, really consistent, versatile, and these are the horses that I really like as a

01:45fan because while she doesn't have overwhelming speed figures, Alexa, she's just really honest.

01:52She's really tough. It seems like every time she races, she shows up and she gives you as good of

01:57a count of herself as possible and sometimes it's good enough. Other times, she runs into tough

02:01foes, but I'm always pretty convinced that she's going to go out and do her best and that's what

02:07you like as a fan, as a gambler, kind of knowing what you're going to get from a horse. Yeah, I

02:12would have said Pegale, but I like yours way better, so we'll go with Peagle. But you're right,

02:19it's an interesting horse in here. Timeformus gives her the fastest early rating and while

02:23she has won two races on the front end, her other three wins have come from being off the pace, so

02:29I think she's a lot more versatile than this Timeform profile and pace projector is suggesting

02:35in here. She would need a pretty big improvement, I think, to be really competitive against some of

02:39these tough ones, but it's not out of reach. The number three, Taxt, she's actually a grade two

02:44winner. Her claim to fame came a couple years back, or actually last year, when she won the

02:48Black-Eyed Susan in May of 2023, so that was her big win that kind of stamped her on the main stage.

02:54She's proven at Churchill, but she's another who, she's fine, she's just not really progressed a

02:58whole lot from last year. Yeah, she hasn't progressed a whole lot, but it's been against really tough

03:05competition. I think it's gonna be a much easier spot. You know, some of the horses she's been

03:09running against are like Scylla, you know, ran one of the quarter lengths behind in June at Churchill,

03:15but then went on to put in a good effort in some really big races, so I do think Taxt is really

03:20talented and is a legit play in here at four to one odds. The horse to beat is the number four,

03:26Too Sharp. I think you and I both agree on that. She's just done nothing wrong in her four races

03:30so far. She's won two of them, the other two she lost, but she finished second. One of those races

03:35that she lost was in a graded stakes race to a horse named Bright Work, who is a grade one winner.

03:40Now, the question or our concerns would be Too Sharp has never gone this far, so she has to prove

03:46that she wants to go a mile, but she'll put the blinkers on, and as we look at the pace projector,

03:50Alexa, it's like the perfect spot for her to test the waters here, because there shouldn't be all

03:55that much other speed pushing her up front. She really should be able to kind of have the race

04:00like her own way and dictate things. Yeah, she's going to be very tough to beat. You know, when I

04:04was handicapping this race, I actually do think it's pretty competitive other than this one, you

04:09know, but she's going to be really tough. You know, Time for Me Us gives her an early rating of 130,

04:14which is wild, really fast, going off the favorite every time, just has that big early speed. So,

04:20you know, they bought her for $925,000, and so far she's living up to the expectations.

04:25And I like the way you sort of map that out. It does feel like she's a little bit above the rest

04:29of the field, then the rest of the field is all competitive. So if she doesn't show up with her

04:34A-game, there are some others that can beat her, but if she does show up with that best effort,

04:39I think they'll probably all be running for second. Royal Spa, the number five, is a horse

04:44who's, I've tried to get to a couple times, Alexa, she's just been a little overmatched when she's

04:49faced Great at Stakes company and been in against this tough. Yeah, this is another homebred who I

04:53think is being a bit ambitiously placed. She's coming off her lifetime best figure, but last

05:00week in our third segment, I talked a little bit about interpreting those PPS a little more in

05:04depth, and I mentioned some scenarios where I would upgrade or downgrade a performance.

05:08And if you look at that lifetime best figure, that race was actually color coded blue, which

05:13means the pace was kind of slow and should give the advantage to whoever was sitting on the front

05:17end. And she was sitting off right off the lead the whole time and failed to kind of seal the

05:20deal. So for me, I would kind of downgrade that lifetime best performance. You and I both like

05:26the number six a little bit here, Positano, Sunset. I thought that she kind of just got caught

05:30up on the front end last time out. I feel like she's a lot better tracking behind horses, and

05:35that'll be the case in here, right? She's not going to be in front of the number four, so she'll be

05:39sitting behind and trying to run down the horse that you and I think is the one to catch. So

05:43maybe we can get Positano, Sunset to come and run her down. And is that how you're kind of

05:47seeing this race play out? That's how I'm seeing it. You know, Positano, Sunset has a really good

05:52career going this year, running against really tough horses, Vava, Society, both of whom were

05:57in the Breeders' Cup this year. This is going to be an easier spot, in my opinion, and she's proven

06:02to handle a lot of different pace scenarios. I first handicapped this race early in the week

06:06when the odds had not come out yet, and I thought Positano, Sunset was going to be second favorite

06:12too sharp. And so if they were going to be really close in odds, I was going to lean too sharp. But

06:17at ten to one, this is a play, in my opinion. If there's any value in this race, I think it's

06:22probably with this horse here. I completely agree. The number seven, Vava, is the next one we get to.

06:28This is a sharp horse, Alexa, who just likes to win races. A 17-time winner, but she's done the

06:34bulk of their work against softer. This is an Illinois bred. So one of those moments where you

06:39kind of step up, you have to face open company, you have to face a little bit better. Where do

06:43you think they stack up here? Well, I'm glad you said the name right, because I was not going to

06:46say it right. But this horse is actually interesting. I didn't use her in my selections,

06:51but I can totally make a case for her. You know, she's only won three races this year,

06:56but they've been the three races she's run on the dirt, and she won those convincingly. So

07:00this does seem to be a preferred surface. Those races were sprints. This is a mile,

07:05but she did get third place in last year's edition of the Chalupe behind by eight lengths.

07:10The outside runner fancy is proven at Churchill, is proven at a mile, and is a horse who has a

07:16little bit of tactical speed. Do you fancy fancy fancy? I actually left off. But is it

07:23again? This race is competitive. You can be steadily improving four year old Philly

07:27gotten first or second and 60% of her races. This is going to be a big class test, though. So

07:33you know, she could rise to the occasion and make a big run. But she did run a neck behind your

07:38favorite name in here, the gale to back in August. So the way we map this race out when we

07:43move to our selections, you and I both had the six Positano sunset on top of the four as like

07:49the horse to bet and the horse to beat, like those two. And then we threw in a couple other

07:53value plays underneath. So for myself, I'm going to go Positano sunset 6427. For Alexa, 6432.

08:03Mentioning taxed, we both have peagle peagle peagle underneath. But as we get set for our

08:09first commercial break, when we

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