Breeders' Cup Race 7 Analysis: Key Horses and Strategies

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00:00But yeah, this is a very exciting race, this one.

00:05I'm going to talk about the first couple of horses, Saitono Carnaval on the inside.

00:09The Japanese bred undefeated, but we haven't seen this horse since July.

00:13So I have some questions and also we'll be stretching out.

00:15We have not seen him go the mile on the grass.

00:18Dreamon's a little interesting because he was third in the summer, but he just moved

00:21a little bit early and it was his first start going long.

00:24The horse has some ability, so maybe one to keep an eye on and at least underneath price

00:28because it could give you a good run for your money with some early speed.

00:31Noble Confessor, actually still a maiden, was behind a major player in here, Zulu Kingdom,

00:37last time out.

00:38Those are the inside three.

00:39Alexa, why don't you pick it up here with the number four?

00:41Yeah, the four is Alcudra with Charles Appleby from his barn, who actually won this at Delmar

00:46the last time with Modern Games.

00:49And Alcudra and New Century have just been duking it out in their last two starts.

00:52Alcudra lost last out second behind New Century, who's the 11 in this race.

00:56Seven wide, bumping down the stretch, put up a strong buyer's figure that race and has

01:01had improving timeform ratings.

01:03So definitely a major contender.

01:05Zulu Kingdom from Chad Brown's barn, undefeated, but you got to look at who's he beat, right?

01:11And he beat Tenacious Leader and Noble Confessor, who are two in here, but they're two I don't

01:14really favor.

01:15So he only beat them by a neck.

01:17I'm not a huge fan of Zulu Kingdom.

01:19The six is Ironman Cow from Phil D'Amato's barn.

01:23For me, the numbers don't quite add up for him to make it in here.

01:26He did win the grade three Zuma, but it was due to disqualification.

01:29Will, Seagulls 11 is an Irish-bred runner who was in the Dewhurst last time out.

01:33Anything you want to mention about the next three horses in here?

01:35Yeah.

01:36So, yeah, my heart is with Seagulls 11 and the Wacko Kids.

01:38Seagulls 11 is owned by some Brighton Premiership footballers, so it'd be good to keep them

01:42in the ownership game.

01:43He's a mega strong, tough-looking horse, came fourth in the Dewhurst on ground that didn't

01:48suit him particularly well.

01:49His individual statistics don't really sing out, though.

01:52I'll try and contribute to the discussion of Al Kudra and New Century.

01:57That Woodbine race, effectively Al Kudra ran a more impressive race than New Century, apart

02:02from not winning.

02:03He got checked.

02:04He was run every furlong.

02:05He ran faster.

02:06He was faster to break.

02:07He has a longer stride.

02:08He has a higher stride frequency than New Century, and he beat New Century on his first

02:11two starts.

02:12So kind of all the data, and you were saying, sort of points to the fact that he can upgrade

02:17that performance.

02:18It would be great to see New Century win for the new first season sire, Kamiko, who won

02:22the English Guineas a few years ago.

02:24But yeah, Al Kudra looks to be the one to beat based upon those stats.

02:27But as I say, I'd love to see for my old trainer, Hugo Palmer, Seagulls 11 and the Wacko Kid,

02:32the Wacko Kid owned by the founder of Betfair, they're pretty interesting.

02:35But look, it's Al Kudra for me.

02:38Zulu Kingdom is interesting.

02:40Broke about half a second faster than a lot of these horses at Belmont at the Big A last

02:45time.

02:46But based upon his predicted average speed in the race, we've got him coming out top.

02:49So yeah, I think he could be pretty good.

02:51And Chad Brown's pretty effective on the turf.

02:53So I'll mention a couple of the others that we didn't hit.

02:56Minaret Station, the eight comes out of a grade two win in the Bourbon was 39 to one

03:00came rolling that day.

03:02Or so I think it's a little bit interesting is the 10 Menti who's going to be stretching

03:05out because this horse is quick and might be able to show some of that speed.

03:09We're talking about how the speed can maybe be an equalizer.

03:12There are probably some classier horses overseas that have a little more foundation going long

03:17on the turf.

03:18Maybe the horses over here who have a little more speed.

03:19That's where you can see things maybe separate.

03:22So Menti has the highest stride frequency, effectively ranking number one here.

03:26Yeah, he's and that's that's an outlier.

03:28So he might make this a kind of ferocious test of pace, which may suit him or not.

03:32What does he draw?

03:33He's drawn 10.

03:34So he might get to the front.

03:35He may not catch him.

03:36But yeah, he's an outlier in that he has a he has a way of racing, which is more like

03:39a kind of five, six foot long sprinter than a miler.

03:41We talked a little bit about the one of the horses to beat in here.

03:45New Century, Omori City and Henri Matisse, unfortunately, the outside draws once you

03:51start getting that far out, it's just the post positions.

03:54You have like lack of options out there and Tenacious Leader.

03:58We just found out was a late scratch just a little bit earlier.

04:01Dave Granite had just posted that from DRF.

04:03So just something to keep an eye on there before we get to the selections.

04:09Want to remind everybody Breeders' Cup packages at shop.drf.com.

04:14Everything you need there.

04:15Will, moment of truth time, give us your selections in the Juvenile Turf.

04:19So I'm going to go for number four, Alcudra to beat number five, Zulu Kingdom with New

04:26Century third and Seagulls 11 fourth, number seven.

04:30Alexa, how about for you?

04:31I agree with Alcudra on top.

04:33Behind that, I have New Century, Menti and Dreamon.

04:37And for me, I'm going to put the 10, Menti on top.

04:39I'll go 10, 11, 5.

04:41The two Dreamon is horse, so I think has some tactical speed, might be able to save ground

04:45down there.

04:46If you're at least looking for horses to use on the bottom of your exotics, that might

04:49be a fun one.

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