Exploring the Raven Run Race: Key Contenders & Strategies

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00:00So here's what the slides look like, and for all of you,

00:02we'll have a promo code right before the commercial,

00:04so stay tuned there.

00:06Let's meet the field for the Raven Run.

00:08I like this race because every year,

00:11this is a race for three-year-old fillies, Alexa,

00:13at the end of the year, when there's not a whole lot

00:15of races for just three-year-old fillies left

00:17in this division, so you'll get a chance

00:19to see them facing their own age group

00:21for just a few more times here.

00:23And we'll start with the number one, Fibber,

00:25who is stakes placed, and Fibber's

00:27in pretty nice form right now,

00:28had won back-to-back races before finishing second

00:31in the Dogwood to my main squeeze,

00:33so we're looking at Fibber here.

00:35How do you think she stacks up with this group?

00:37I like Fibber a lot.

00:38Chris Hartman, her trainer, claimed her four races ago

00:40for $100,000, and he's just really improved her

00:44under his guidance.

00:46All three starts have been the fastest races

00:48she's ever run.

00:49She's got a bullet work coming into the race today.

00:51I think she's kind of at her prime, at her peak.

00:55Yeah, she seems like she's doing the best

00:57that she's ever done right now.

00:59She should be able to save some ground from the inside.

01:01The number two, Alexa, is Miyucha,

01:03who's a stakes winner, was a third-place finisher

01:06in the Priors last time out behind Brightwork

01:09and Too Sharp.

01:10Too Sharp came out of that race to win next time out.

01:12So the race has come back live,

01:14and I feel like in a spot like this,

01:16so this is a grade two race,

01:18these are not quite the best, maybe the top,

01:21top of the division of the Philly and Mare sprinters,

01:23maybe just below, and I think that's where Miyucha

01:26probably fits with this group.

01:28She'll be a fair price in here.

01:30Do you like her at all?

01:32I do and I don't, because she's just so hot and cold to me.

01:35She'll have like really great performances

01:37and then have a not so great performance.

01:39So for me, given that, I would want a bigger price

01:43than six to one.

01:45New York bread is the number three, my main squeeze.

01:49This is a very nice Philly,

01:50who is a multiple graded stakes winner.

01:52She just won the Dogwood by five lengths.

01:55And if you go through her form,

01:56she's faced some of the best three-year-old Phillies

01:59like Torpedo Anna, like Ways and Means.

02:02Those two are going to be the top two betting choices

02:06in their individual Breeders' Cup races

02:08in just a couple of weeks.

02:09So she's faced some really tough company.

02:12Yeah, I like my main,

02:13I think my main squeeze fits in here.

02:16She's a closer, but does seem to do her best

02:18when she can kind of stalk near the pace,

02:20no more than three to four lengths back off of the leader.

02:23I don't know if I totally agree with time form

02:25that she's going to be so towards the back

02:29at the beginning of the race.

02:29I hope she can stay a little bit more forwardly placed.

02:33And she's never been over the Keeneland course.

02:35And I will say her trainers,

02:37not really having a very good Keeneland meeting

02:39is one for 19 right now.

02:40So that's a bit concerning.

02:41But despite that, I do still think she fits here

02:44and is going to be a player.

02:45She's kind of a measuring stick for this field.

02:47You feel like you know what you're going to get from her,

02:49and that'll probably be good enough to hit the board.

02:51If someone jumps up and runs like an awesome race,

02:53they're good enough to win this thing.

02:55And Twirling Queen is the next one we'll take a look at.

02:58This is a really sharp horse right now, Alexa.

03:00She's won four in a row,

03:02but those races have come on the synthetic surfaces

03:05and on the turf and going a little bit shorter.

03:07So not only is she going to have to move back to the dirt,

03:09but she'll have to stretch out a little bit

03:11from five and a half furlongs to seven furlongs.

03:14Yeah, you know, she didn't perform well

03:16on the dirt as a two-year-old,

03:18and then they switched her to synthetic and she hasn't lost.

03:21So, and on the turf.

03:22So now they're like trying to run dirt again.

03:24I guess I'm trying to understand the trainer's decision here.

03:27Maybe they're thinking,

03:29oh, some of this success is due to her

03:31just development in age,

03:33and we want to try her again on the dirt

03:34and see if, you know, she fits or she fits there now.

03:39But I'm of the mindset, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

03:42So I don't completely understand trying her here.

03:46Do you know, Gino, if she's actually going to run?

03:48Because she is cross-entered.

03:49She's cross-entered.

03:50And I was going to say,

03:51that would make a lot more sense

03:52for her to be in a different spot.

03:53But you wonder, we see a couple of horses this weekend

03:55that are cross-entered in races at Keeneland

03:57and at Belmont at the Big A.

03:59Sometimes at the time when we were recording this,

04:01it's a little early,

04:01so we don't have the final information there.

04:03But I agree with you.

04:04I'd be a little cold on her in this spot too.

04:06I don't know if seven furlongs on the dirt

04:08is what she wants.

04:09But the next couple of horses in here

04:11feel like major players,

04:12and starting with the five, Emery,

04:13she's the horse to beat.

04:14I mean, her last three races are so good,

04:18and she lost to Ways and Means,

04:20who I had just mentioned before.

04:21She's four for six overall,

04:23and her two defeats are to nice, nice fillies.

04:26Yeah, this horse is a formidable favorite in here.

04:29She's won four out of her six lifetime starts.

04:31The only two she lost were grade ones,

04:34both over muddy or sloppy tracks.

04:36She got second in the grade one test,

04:37last out at Saratoga,

04:39behind, like you said, Ways and Means,

04:40who ran in the Kentucky Oaks,

04:42to put that in perspective,

04:43and is going to be a contender in the Breeders' Cup

04:46filling in their sprint at the championships

04:48for a million dollars.

04:49So she's absolutely no joke.

04:51Very quick, early pace,

04:52and likes to stalk the leader

04:53and grind them down at the end.

04:54I'm a big fan of Emery.

04:56Yeah, and if you look at who she beat,

04:58two starts back in the victory ride,

04:59a horse named Mystic Lake.

05:01Mystic Lake beat My Main Squeeze.

05:03So the second, the major rival for Emery

05:07has been defeated by a horse that she just dusted.

05:09So if you're playing that common rival game,

05:11she looks really good.

05:12The number six, Vivi's Dream,

05:14was a nice two-year-old,

05:15kind of into the beginning of three,

05:17and then last,

05:19and then most recently, earlier in the year,

05:21hadn't really been able to step forward all that much,

05:23but she kind of comes in in a decent pattern.

05:25She's a grade three winner, Alexa.

05:27What do you think about Vivi's Dream?

05:29You know, she just kind of stalled.

05:30Her two-year-old year was really impressive.

05:32We thought, oh, she might be one of our future stars,

05:34and then this year has just been a disappointment.

05:38She ran too early on and disappointed them both,

05:40had that six-month break,

05:42and came back and kind of disappointed again.

05:44So I think we'd need a huge improvement from her.

05:47The number seven, Mink's Palace, is a horseshoe.

05:50At first glance, I was gonna kind of toss,

05:52and then I got back to Mink's Palace again, Alexa,

05:55and I think one thing's really interesting

05:56about this particular filly.

05:58When you look at the races where they grab ahold of her

06:01and she takes back a little bit, she wins.

06:04In her career debut, she was coming from off the pace.

06:08She won.

06:09In her second start, they put her on the lead.

06:10She faded.

06:11But in her third start, they went a little bit longer.

06:14Fourth start, they took her back.

06:15She wins.

06:16It seems like she really likes being behind horses,

06:19covered up a little bit,

06:21and that's a real thing with certain horses.

06:22They have particular running styles.

06:24It takes a little while sometimes to figure it out,

06:26a little bit of trial and error,

06:27but I think they've got her figured out

06:29that she just wants to sit behind and then make one late run.

06:32I actually think she's heading in the right direction.

06:35I would not be shocked at all to see her run well in here.

06:38I mean, she's beat two from this field.

06:40She beat Ripperton and Vivi's dream last out,

06:42hasn't run against stakes companies,

06:43so this is going to be the toughest spot for her,

06:46and her normal jockey is on my main squeeze instead,

06:50so she does get Jose Ortiz,

06:51but he's ridden her before once, and it was to victory,

06:55so I agree with you, Gino.

06:56I like her progression and where she's heading.

06:58Yeah, you and I kind of think

06:59she's the most interesting price.

07:01Towards the outside, a couple long shots.

07:03Uno Lee couldn't really make a case for this one.

07:05The form, I just need to see more

07:07from this really lightly raced horse.

07:09Agree.

07:11And the nine, Ripperton is stakes placed.

07:14Ripperton was the runner-up last time out

07:15behind Minx Palace.

07:17Ripperton seems like a horse who,

07:19kind of a bit one-dimensional, maybe a pace horse.

07:22I could see up forwardly placed in here.

07:24I just don't know if this one can hang around late.

07:26Yeah, she lost by a head to Minx Palace last time,

07:29and 21 to one odds, I think,

07:32so she outran her odds last time.

07:34I think she can outrun her odds again this time,

07:36but I think this is a very tough spot

07:39to ask her to prove herself.

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