00:00The sixth race will be the final race of that pick five on Saturday, so it's a really important race to be correct about.
00:07And what makes it really kind of tough when you're handicapping Canterbury, Alexa, you get horses coming from all these different tracks.
00:13So you really got to try to, like, figure out which races are the best, how are these going to stack up.
00:18I mean, you have horses that are coming in from Canterbury, Prairie Meadows, Turf Paradise, Lone Star, and Horseshoe Indianapolis.
00:26So five different tracks for the seven horses in this race that they all come out of.
00:31We start with R&R Audible, whose most recent win came sprinting on the dirt.
00:36That's what made him a little tricky for me to get a read on, Alexa.
00:39His two wins are sprinting on the dirt, and this race is going long on the grass.
00:44He only has one race going long on the grass, so I had a tough read on him.
00:48Yeah, and that one race on the grass wasn't really a stellar performance.
00:52I don't think this race setup fits him very well.
00:55His trainer has a 3% win rate when he switches his horse from dirt to turf, and a similar 3% win rate when he moves them from a sprint to a route.
01:04So when I was looking for a reason to like him, those stats didn't help.
01:11The two is a total wild card, Smoke'em Boy, because all of his good races have been on wet tracks, either muddy tracks or off tracks.
01:19He's never been on the grass.
01:22He's faced some pretty good horses, though.
01:23After his first couple races, they threw him in some tough spots, like the Florida Derby was one of them.
01:30I have really no idea what to think of him in here on the grass, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him hit the board or run okay,
01:37just because he's faced some pretty decent horses throughout his career.
01:40Probably most of his races, he's faced horses better than this one.
01:44It's just going to come down to the surface for him.
01:46Yeah, I mean, he started off his career in Puerto Rico, won one of their grade one races, which is great, but not like the level of our graded stakes here.
01:54And so he came over.
01:56The Florida Derby grade one was too tough of a spot for him, but he won his stakes at Indiana a month and a half ago.
02:01It took a little bit of a step back last out.
02:04But like you said, the thing is, never run on the turf, so it's going to be a gamble.
02:08His breeding, so his sires progeny don't typically perform that well on the turf, but his dam, his mom did win on the grass going a short distance.
02:17I think four to one is light on him based on how many factors are up in the air.
02:22So from a betting standpoint, I think it's a little bit of a risky bet.
02:26Yeah, you probably want a little more on him in this field that you can, like, nobody would really shock you in this field.
02:33Like, maybe the one who we just talked a little bit about, but almost everyone else wouldn't really be a big surprise.
02:39You can even look at the odds.
02:40They're not all separated by that much.
02:42I agree.
02:43If I'm going to bet Smokin' Boy, I probably want, like, six to one, maybe, like, eight to one, just a little bit higher based on some of those variables you were mentioning.
02:51The fun named Seahorse Stampede will try to do just that, Stampede Home.
02:56He's a late closer, Alexa.
02:58You can probably just eliminate his dirt race.
03:00He didn't really run well, but his grass races are really good.
03:03Kind of the opposite of the first two horses that we talked about in this field.
03:07You kind of know what you're going to get from him.
03:08He just needs a little bit of help up front because he's not that fast early in the races.
03:13So he needs the races to set up for him.
03:15Yeah, there's a lot of upside for him here.
03:17Like you said, they're switching him back to his preferred surface.
03:20He's won at this distance before, albeit easier competition, but really lightly raced, only four starts.
03:27So there's a lot of upside.
03:28I think at six to one, he's worth using in your exotics, if not to win.
03:31And he was right on the wire with Ben and Donner, his rival on April the 29th.
03:37So those two are kind of hard to separate, Seahorse Stampede and Ben and Donner.
03:41You feel like they're both going to come closing late in this race.
03:43Yeah, and Ben and Donner's another really lightly raced horse, only had three starts.
03:49His lone wind was on the dirt, but he's done well on the grass both times.
03:53Second and third place finishes, both less than a length off of the winner.
03:56So I think he does need to take a bit of a step up, but there's no reason to doubt that he can't with what we've seen so far.
04:02So I really do like him.
04:03June 2025 makes me feel old, because that means it's been 30 years since the movie Clueless was released, when Brittany Murphy was talking about rolling with the homies, as we've got homie number five coming up.
04:17Yeah, I was going to say, I feel, I forget about that.
04:21We're like generations apart.
04:22I was born that year.
04:23Yeah.
04:24Clueless, great movie.
04:25Shout out to everyone knows I'm talking about there.
04:27And you feel old knowing that that was 30 years ago.
04:30But homie, are we going to be rolling with this homie here, who is two for two for Larry Ravelli.
04:35We actually see him winning this race at Horseshoe Indy.
04:38He was the four to five favorite that day, Alexa.
04:40He actually got challenged by a 45 to one shot, but he was able to battle back.
04:45So I respect homies who wins, but he hasn't raced since September of last year.
04:50So we're getting to a long layoff for him now.
04:53Yeah, he's going to get some pressure from Sushi Man on the outside, who has faster figures.
05:00Even though homies figures are a little bit light in here, though, I do think he has merit.
05:04He's really likely raised.
05:05He's never been asked to perform at a higher level yet.
05:09So I could see playing him.
05:11I don't love the odds.
05:13I wish he was more like six or seven to one.
05:16And Sushi Man, like I said, is going to be a tough order to beat for that leader position.
05:21Homie, we'll see if he can get the job done off that long, long layoff.
05:24We move to the outside to Canyon Streak.
05:27Like, he's coming into this race in good form, but all of his races have been against Texas breds.
05:33So that's what is a little bit tough.
05:35They're not as good as Open Company, right?
05:38If you're just facing horses that are bred in Texas.
05:40So while he's looked really good in those races, this is probably going to be tougher than what he's been facing,
05:46where he's got horses that are coming from all over the place in here to deal with.
05:49This is tougher, but I like him.
05:51So one of my angles, I'll give you guys my secret angle.
05:54I love Kitten's Joy horses going long on the turf.
05:57I've made a lot of money playing that angle, and he's by Kitten's Joy.
06:01He's never done worse than second on the surface.
06:03All been at today's distance.
06:05He should be forwardly placed, but he doesn't need the lead.
06:08So I think he can sit off of Homie and Sushi Man, let them put up all the hard work,
06:11kind of draft behind them, and then make a late move.
06:13So I am putting Canyon Streak on top.
06:17I upgraded him just because of that.
06:18I think he can sit a really nice trip.
06:20Sushi Man rounds out the field.
06:21He was very impressive.
06:23He won by seven lengths.
06:24But another one, he faced Minnesota Breads.
06:26So this will be a tougher group because he's going to be facing Open Company in here, Alexa.
06:30But I think what we worry about with him, he was on the lead winning,
06:35and he'll probably have to face Homie and a couple other early speed horses in this spot on Saturday.
06:39He is, and they start really close to the turn going this distance at the track,
06:43and he's drawn the outside.
06:44So it's not the ideal position for him to clear and get to that lead.
06:50So I think he's definitely beatable, and at 2-1 odds, I'm going to try to beat him.
