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Exploring the Grade Two Remson at Aqueduct Race Seven
SportsGrid
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12/6/2024
Category
🥇
Sports
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00:00
So let's head on out and take a look at race seven for Aqueduct that starts our late pick
00:07
four sequence.
00:08
It's the grade two Remsen.
00:10
And in this race, we can think about the winner of last year's Remsen, who was Dornick, who
00:15
came back to win the Belmont, win the Haskell.
00:17
Sierra Leone was also in that race, as was Domestic Products.
00:21
So we had Breeders' Cup Classic winner and another Breeders' Cup also ran in that race.
00:26
It was a really strong group.
00:28
Possibly one of those horses this year is Tux from the inside.
00:31
It could be a very live runner, but Alexa, I'm going to start out with two of the horses
00:35
that we have.
00:36
We're going to go four deep on our pick four.
00:38
One of those is Tux, who is really nice.
00:40
That was a very good win in that career debut.
00:43
And then the second one is Aviator Guy.
00:45
This is a horse who I think will have no problem going the mile in an eighth distance.
00:49
So some of these horses may not be quite ready to go this long yet.
00:52
I don't think that'll be the problem with Aviator Guy.
00:55
He probably needs a little pace to chase in here.
00:57
But for Tux, he'll probably be forwardly placed.
01:00
Aviator Guy, I think he'll be sitting and making one late run.
01:03
Why don't you tell the folks about the other two that we're going to use in the Remsen?
01:06
Yeah, we're also going to use the number four, Studley Do-Right, who won his first round.
01:10
Named after me.
01:11
Is that right?
01:12
And then he looked like he might not be all that we thought he was going to be with a
01:18
few disappointing races.
01:19
Then last race, they stretched him out to a mile and he ran his best ever to win against
01:25
Stakes Company.
01:26
So this will be the longest he's gone.
01:27
Like you said, Gino, this is a long race for two-year-olds, but he's handled the distance
01:31
so far.
01:32
And then the five, Kewaydin, is the morning line favorite, heavy favorite for Chad Brown.
01:37
And rightfully so, he ran a really impressive winning effort last out in his second start
01:41
with the fastest figure that anybody in here has ever run.
01:44
So if he improves off that, it's probably his race and probably easily so.
01:49
But if he ends up getting a lot of pace pressure from Tux or even Poster, then I think he could
01:54
fold.
01:55
I mean, you just cannot leave off of your ticket, but we're sure going to root against
01:58
him to try to get a longer-priced horse in.
02:01
Hoping for a little more value there.
02:02
So we'll use four horses to try to move through the Remsen, which is the first leg of this
02:06
pick-four sequence.
02:08
We move to the second leg of the pick-four sequence.
02:10
This one's for the fillies, the two-year-old fillies.
02:12
It's the grade two Demoiselle.
02:13
Alexa, you're going to talk about a really talented filly that we're going to use from
02:17
the rail.
02:18
She's no doubt the horse to beat, right?
02:20
She's absolutely the horse to beat.
02:21
And the price reflects that four-to-five favorite, been out twice, won both by over
02:27
five lengths and just seemed to have more.
02:29
This is a lot longer with it being a mile and an eighth, opposed to six and a half and
02:33
seven furlongs that she's run so far.
02:35
But I honestly think that's a plus for her.
02:37
I think she'll like the added distance while others could struggle with this distance increase.
02:41
So it's also noteworthy they spent $700,000 on this filly as a yearling.
02:46
So, you know, she must be something visually quite spectacular, as well as being a daughter
02:53
of a stakes winner.
02:54
Yeah.
02:55
When you look at what she's done, too, she defeated a next out winner in her debut.
02:59
I guess the only knock that I would have on her, it's not really a knock, it's that both
03:02
of her wins, she's been able to sit just off the leader to the outside in a very comfortable
03:08
position.
03:09
And because she draws the rail in this race, she probably won't get that same exact trip
03:13
that she's been able to get in both of her wins.
03:15
So for some horses, when you have a different dynamic or when things are different, it can
03:19
be a little different, but she is certainly the one to catch and certainly the one to
03:23
be in here.
03:24
And they'll all have to have their A be on their A game in order to get the better of
03:28
her.
03:29
But I think one horse that should have an opportunity to going longer and actually be
03:33
visually was visually impressive at six and a half.
03:36
That was Beauty Rain.
03:37
So we're also going to use the number eight in here drawn towards the outside.
03:40
She can sit off a little bit, too, if she has to.
03:42
So that gives us another, if for some reason the rail draw or something happens with Mohima
03:48
down inside, we have a couple opportunities in here and Beauty Rains will give us a little
03:52
bit more value in this one.
03:54
So we're going to go too deep with the one and the eight in the second leg of the pick
03:58
four sequence.
03:59
Now we can talk about producer Rich's favorite race, the Cigar Mile.
04:03
I know he loves those stogies.
04:04
Why don't you recap our selections for this one, Alexa?
04:08
Yeah, we're actually using all four in here that we talked about earlier that we liked
04:11
Mulligan at three to one, who will look to finish out his four year old campaign with
04:16
a five and one record, taking an early lead and fending off the rest.
04:20
We'll also use the number seven locked, who ran his lifetime best race last out after
04:24
that year long break and will hope to improve again off that effort.
04:29
The number nine Senor Buscador at six to one of the leaning earner in here with nearly
04:34
13 million dollars in earnings.
04:37
I did not stutter.
04:38
Yeah, that's true.
04:39
It's crazy.
04:40
He's a deep closer is going to try to pick him off at the end and then the other closer
04:43
number 11 post time with the husband, wife, trainer, jockey duo, Britney and Sheldon Russell.
04:49
So we have two horses that will be more forwardly placed in there and then two of the horses
04:52
that are going to drop way back and they're going to be making their one late run at the
04:56
end.
04:57
So hopefully we get through the Cigar Mile and we get to race number 10, which is a first
05:00
level allowance race.
05:02
This race might have been the most tricky in the sequence because you have so many horses
05:06
in here.
05:07
Alexa that I thought were evenly matched that kind of look like each other.
05:10
So it'll really come down to trip.
05:11
You're going to start us out with the four and why don't you talk about the four and
05:15
the seven because you like them a little bit better.
05:17
Yeah, I like I like the four commuted quite a bit has been improving every race and seems
05:21
to be running better figures at a mile or more, you know time for me as projector if
05:25
you see that there predicts him to be kind of far back at the half mile mark and then
05:30
rally for a very close second finish to the seven.
05:33
I am expecting and hoping him to be a little bit more for a little less than they think
05:37
at that half mile mark, but again close finish with the seven which will also use Reynolds
05:42
Channel.
05:43
They spent $300,000 on this quote as a yearling from a sire who's only stands for 5,000.
05:49
He's made back a little over half of their investment so far and just has run really
05:53
consistent fast numbers this summer.
05:55
This is his first back out since September and trainer Bill Mott is really good with
06:00
horses off the layoff with a 22% win rate with over $2 ROI.
06:05
So a couple others that we'll use in here treaty obligation the number six what I like
06:10
about this particular horse.
06:11
This is a horse who had kind of been knocking on the door for a while a lot of seconds and
06:14
thirds and then put it all together.
06:16
Sometimes we call that the light bulb angle when a horse wins and then they come right
06:20
back and they win their next start.
06:21
It's like they figured things out and this one has a little versatility there too will
06:26
also use quick to accuse a horse who likes aqueduct and a horse who will absolutely pass
06:30
horses late.
06:31
So if they go too quick, this will be a horse who can sit off the pace and who can pass.
06:36
Let's take a look at the pick for ticket.
06:38
How are we going to put it all together?
06:39
I think this week we end up spending 64 bucks.
06:42
Remember how you add this up you multiply the amount of horses you use in each race.
06:47
So in race seven, we use four horses race eight.
06:50
We use two four times two is eight times four is 32 times four.
06:55
Then you divide that by two because it's a 50 cent pick for altogether.
06:58
I know it's a lot of math.
06:59
I know it's a lot of math, but it's pretty simple when you do it that way and it's just
07:03
a $64 pick for ticket.
07:05
So hopefully we lead you in the right direction this week.
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4:47
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