00:00It's not a big field, but we have some really interesting horses in here, including the Kentucky Derby winner and the Belmont winner, Sovereignty, who rounds out the field.
00:10But I do think you can make cases for a couple different horses in here just sort of based on the running style, based on the fact that this is a prep race, too.
00:18The big race is the Travers that a lot of these horses are trying to get to.
00:22So knowing Belmont, it wouldn't shock me if Sovereignty was maybe a little bit short trying to run a big race in the Travers.
00:30Let's meet the field here, Scott, and we'll start with Baeza, who was third in the Kentucky Derby, came back and ran third in the Belmont.
00:37In the Belmont, though, he did not look comfortable really from the beginning.
00:40He was a little bit rank. He just didn't really seem like himself.
00:45I was actually surprised he was able to finish third in that race.
00:48I think it just sort of shows the class that he has.
00:51He was nowhere near Sovereignty, and I think now in having been defeated by Sovereignty in a couple different races, they have to try to change something.
01:00And I'm hoping that the plan for Baeza with the inside draw in a small field is to try to get into the race a lot earlier, because he did this earlier in his career, Baeza.
01:10So I'm hoping he can get in front of Sovereignty, try to get the jump on him.
01:15What do you think about this course who's based on the West Coast, Baeza?
01:17I think he's got a lot of talent, and he's just run into the top two three-year-olds that we've seen in many years here, you know?
01:25I was hoping he ran with that style at the Belmont.
01:28You mentioned it just wasn't meant to be that day.
01:30If he has the speed in him, that's his chance to beat him.
01:33I'm just wondering if he still has it in him.
01:35Yeah, you're absolutely right.
01:37And his horses get a little older sometimes.
01:39They'll maybe develop more running styles, and he's just not been as fast out of the gate.
01:43We'll see if Hector Berrios, who's jumping aboard, can maybe plan to try to get him out of the gate quickly.
01:49Sandman was actually the second choice in the Kentucky Derby.
01:53He's a horse who's interesting.
01:54He just feels so, like, forgotten about recently after earlier in the year where he was one of the top three-year-olds.
02:01He's a horse who's a closer, Scott, but he's going to add the blinkers so they will hope that maybe he can get a little bit closer in this race early and not have to come from way, way out of it.
02:12We're watching him in the Preakness where he runs third, and he was a fine third that day.
02:18I don't know what to do with him, really, because, you know, he certainly has class, but he doesn't really feel like he's been in the stratosphere with sovereignty.
02:28That's pretty much the way I feel.
02:30I feel like he's beaten up the field he's won.
02:32He's beaten up on lesser groups with good setups.
02:35He was always highly regarded.
02:37I remember he was huge steam on debut at Churchill last June.
02:41I think the blinkers is a recipe for disaster with a cap it that comes from off the pace, awful layoff.
02:47But Mark Cassidy's won a few more races than me, so maybe I'm wrong about this one.
02:52Yeah, and maybe he can, if we say he didn't like the slop at Churchill on the Kentucky Derby Day and you can eliminate that race,
02:59all of a sudden his overall form looks a little bit better.
03:02You don't see as many bad performances.
03:05Just in a small field, his running style, I'm a little bit worried.
03:09Scott, I mean, I can even see Moplex running really well in this race because there's no early speed in here,
03:15and he is definitely the proven speed.
03:17For those watching, you can see the projector, and they had the three Moplex way out in front in a race that favors frontrunners.
03:25Yeah, and this horse is two for two over this racetrack.
03:28You mentioned a prep potentially for sovereignty, maybe even Baeza.
03:32You can even make the argument for Hill Road who might want longer.
03:35Moplex, this is his race.
03:36I don't think they're planning on a mile and a quarter.
03:39He very well could be on the lead.
03:41I think he's up against it to win it, but I don't think he's up against it to maybe finish second or third at the very least.
03:47Yeah, he's the one to catch.
03:48He won both starts at Saratoga, and he showed us he can get a mile and an eighth.
03:52We move to Hill Road.
03:53He's a grade three winner.
03:54He finished fifth in the Belmont most recently.
03:57Do you think he can turn the tables on rival sovereignty to his outside?
04:01Not with this pace.
04:02Well, no, never with sovereignty.
04:04I think he's one or two cuts below, but I think the race shape works against him as well,
04:08so hitting the board is going to be a challenge.
04:11Sovereignty won the Derby, won the Belmont, skipped the Preakness.
04:14What was really scary about him, Scott, is that he sat a lot closer in the Belmont,
04:20which wasn't something he was doing earlier.
04:22So if he's growing up and maturing and now he's able to sit closer in races,
04:27that makes him very, very imposing.
04:30He'll be the heavy favorite.
04:32He's super deserving.
04:33The only kind of hole I could poke in him is I wonder.
04:37He did run really well on a sloppy track in the Derby,
04:41and then most recently in the Belmont was an off track.
04:43Maybe he took more to some of those off tracks than his competition.
04:47That would be my only concern.
04:50I don't really have any knocks on this horse.
04:52He's fantastic.
04:53He's the best three-year-old right now, and he's the horse to beat.
04:56Without question, I'm done trying to beat these top couple of horses.
04:59I never tried to beat journalism, but I did try to beat sovereignty.
05:02I just think there are multiple cuts above most of these horses,
05:06and they can beat these horses with their B race.
05:08It's not exciting from a wagering perspective, but sovereignty going to be tough.
