Analyzing Top Contenders in Upcoming Pimlico Special

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00:00Let's start with the horse who's in really good form right now, Alexa.

00:03Phileas Fogg, I know you like this horse.

00:05I mean, it's hard to knock what he's done in his last five races or so,

00:09and he's won eight of 16 lifetime.

00:11He's going to step up and face a tougher group,

00:13but this is when you step up when you're in good form like this.

00:16Yeah, I think he just really came into his element as a four- and now five-year-old.

00:21Like you said, won four out of the last five.

00:23The one he lost was by a neck.

00:24All of the recent wins have been by big margins.

00:27The most recent was slightly longer distance than today's,

00:31but he's won going shorter, too.

00:34His time form U.S. early-paced figure is a 126,

00:37so the one whole position draw probably, like,

00:39wasn't exactly what they were hoping for,

00:42but if he gets a clean break, he definitely has the talent to wire the field.

00:46There is a lot of speed in this race, and they're all clumped on the inside,

00:51so it's going to be really contentious for that lead.

00:54But also, I believe, won in the slop, right?

01:00Yep, has won a couple times on the wet track,

01:02and with the inside draw, he'll be going.

01:05He'll have to deal with a couple, though, like you pointed out,

01:07maybe Encino, maybe Awesome Aaron, a couple other speed horses.

01:10Right next door is the two, Catalia Strike,

01:12who comes off of back-to-back wins at Laurel.

01:15Another one, though, who's been facing softer company

01:17and is going to step up and face a lot tougher horses in here.

01:20Yeah, this is a local horse.

01:21He's never run at Pimlico, but running in the local circuit his entire career.

01:25He's been in great form lately, like you said, coming off a couple of wins.

01:29One of them was over a wet track, but it's quite a big step up in class,

01:33so I think you would need his lifetime best effort today.

01:36Encino had a really good year last year,

01:39and he won some prestigious races, including the Lexington.

01:42This year, he's actually been pretty solid.

01:45He's kind of taken a step forward,

01:46and he comes off of a very good effort over at Turfway Park,

01:49where he finished second.

01:50I think he fits with this group.

01:52The only thing that worries me a little bit is the running style.

01:54You were just kind of pointing out.

01:56Phileas Fogg is quick.

01:57Encino is quick.

01:58Awesome Aaron is quick.

01:59So I think he fits with this group.

02:01I just don't know if he's going to get the type of trip that he needs.

02:05Yeah, and his best figures are on the synthetic,

02:08but he's won on the dirt multiple times, too.

02:10I think he's a threat.

02:11But I think if he beats Phileas Fogg to the lead and gets the upper hand,

02:17that would be a big advantage for him.

02:20Yeah, he's another speedster in here, for sure.

02:22Very talented horse who's done a lot of hard work before

02:25in tough, tough, great-at-stakes races.

02:27And as you can see on the pace projector,

02:30the 1, 3, and 4 are all supposed to be close to the front end.

02:33So the number 4, Awesome Aaron, is next up.

02:35And as you were pointing out,

02:37it's kind of like what happened in the Kentucky Derby a few weeks ago, right?

02:39You had all those speed horses drawn down to the inside.

02:42Citizen Bull, Neo Equus.

02:43You had American Promise.

02:44They were all down there, these fast horses.

02:46And they all go, kind of push each other.

02:49One or two gets left.

02:50I just feel like they're probably going to be pushing each other a little bit.

02:54And of the speed horses,

02:56I probably prefer him the least of, like, the three that we've talked about.

03:00Same.

03:01You know, it's been a long time since this horse is running a stakes company,

03:03but he ran such a big race last out.

03:06So I understand the placing, but I agree.

03:09Really tough just how the race drew with all these speedsters in here.

03:13And I think the distance might be a little bit longer than he really wants.

03:16Time for Trouble is on the opposite end of the spectrum, right?

03:19He's the number 5, and you see his chiclet way towards the back.

03:22So he's going to be one of the horses that's probably slow early,

03:25hopes they go fast, and tries to run them all down late.

03:28Do you give him a shot in here?

03:29Yeah, he's going to stay out of the drama, right?

03:31He'll just kind of hang back.

03:33He'll tuck in, get a comfortable placing, gets tracking that pace.

03:36He's won close to $700,000, is an 8-year-old, though, so he's been running for a long time.

03:42I really feel like if they had run this horse more at his level,

03:45instead of constantly pushing him over his head in graded stakes,

03:48he probably could have had a lot higher earnings.

03:50I think this is too tough a spot for him.

03:53Just Steel is the next one.

03:54I thought his race at Churchill most recently,

03:57it actually really wasn't that bad in the Churchill downs,

03:59going seven furlongs against a really tough group.

04:01But now he'll stretch back out to a mile in 316s.

04:05I just don't know what to do with him because he's kind of going now from a sprint back to long.

04:09I think they're just trying to figure out where he's best

04:11because he hasn't really been able to put it together like he did last year.

04:14Yeah, it was a really big deal last year, right?

04:17He ran in the Arkansas Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness.

04:21So, you know, after the Preakness, they gave him nine months off.

04:24He's run four times this year now without hitting the board.

04:27He's coming back on short rest, too,

04:29because he ran in the grade one Churchill on Derby Day.

04:31I think he's a bit over his head.

04:33He's also run five times on a wet track and never won,

04:36so he might not like the weather either.

04:38The outside three horses all have a lot of chance in this race.

04:42Remember, the seven Pyrenees will just kind of go over quickly

04:44because they're going to scratch him.

04:47But the eight star of wonder comes off of a recent win.

04:50He's won four of five.

04:51He's lightly raced.

04:52He is upside, and he's got a little versatility to him.

04:56I think he's shown that he can sit off the pace.

04:58We don't really know how good he is, though,

04:59because he's going to step up and face Steak's company.

05:01But I think he could get a good trip with Pratt aboard for trainer Brad Cox.

05:05So that's going to be a horse who I'm looking towards.

05:07Alexa, what do you think about him?

05:08He has a little bit of a wild card.

05:09He's very talented.

05:10But I mentioned we've got an eight-year-old in here,

05:12which is probably pretty old.

05:13But this is a four-year-old.

05:14So he's running against older for older,

05:17really more seasoned players in here.

05:20But very talented.

05:21And if he handles the class, has every right to win.

05:23Red Route 1, the number 9, has earned over $2 million throughout his career.

05:29He's a multiple-graded stakes winner.

05:32He's a horse who you know what you're going to get.

05:34He's going to drop back.

05:35He might be dead last, like they have him on the chiclet.

05:37But if they go fast early, he will come and run them all down.

05:41So, I mean, I think he's one of those horses you probably want to use because of that.

05:45Yeah, and he's very familiar with Pimlico.

05:47He ran in the Preakness two years ago and then ran in this race last year.

05:50He ran fourth.

05:50Not bad, right?

05:51Exactly.

05:52And has since won a couple of grade threes.

05:55So, you know, he has some really eye-catching performances recently.

05:58And like you said, he's going to get a fast pace to run at.

06:00I think it'll set up nicely.

06:02Rounding out the field is San Siro.

06:03It doesn't seem like distance is a problem for him.

06:05He's won at this trip.

06:07He may have to improve just a little,

06:09but I don't think he's completely overmatched in here coming off his runner-up effort.

06:12What do you think about the 10?

06:14I think his speed figures are generally too low to compete with this field.

06:17Every now and then he pops up and runs a banger.

06:19But against this really salty field,

06:21I just would want to see that more as the rule than the exception.

06:25Before we move to the break, let's check selections.

06:27Alexa, 1-9-8-3 for you.

06:31I'm going to be going with the 8-9-10-3 for my selection.

06:36So I'll put that one on top.

06:38But whoever you play, however you play them, we wish you the best of luck.

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