Ohio Derby Best Bets: Top Contenders and Underdogs

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00:00One thing about this Ohio Derby, Alexa, you have a couple of horses who are like legitimate contenders.

00:05Then it seems like you got a few that are some long shots in here that the connections of local horses, they're taking a big swing.

00:11It's the big race. So why not? Let's see if they're good enough.

00:14We start things out with Brereton's Baytown. His last four races, he's been in a little bit trough.

00:20Last win came on a muddy track four starts back. But I mean, you look, he was in the Rebel.

00:25He was in the Arkansas Derby and the Peter Pan. So he did face some nice horses.

00:28I just don't really know how good he is.

00:31Yeah, for a three-year-old, he's run quite a few times. He's got 13 starts, only two wins, though.

00:38And like you said, he kind of tried the Derby trail a little bit with some of those tougher races earlier this year.

00:42And they were just really over his head. But he did run his fastest figures ever in those races.

00:49So he does seem like a horse that rises when he faces tougher competition.

00:53But I do still think he's probably a little too slow for some of the opponents in here.

00:57It feels like a major player is Chunk of Gold. He actually ran in the Kentucky Derby.

01:02And you and I have talked about him a few different times through the last couple months because he ran in the Risen Star.

01:07He ran in the Louisiana Derby. He was second in both of those races.

01:11Honestly, he finished ninth in the Kentucky Derby. It really wasn't that bad of an effort.

01:14He kind of ran up. He was in like fourth or fifth early in the stretch before he tired.

01:19Feels like this is a way better spot for him.

01:21And we have to give a lot of credit to the connections.

01:23They purchased this horse for just two thousand five hundred dollars.

01:27And he was running in the Kentucky Derby and he's multiple graded stakes placed as an owner.

01:31And as someone who like looks into horses at sales and is involved in that world,

01:36you have to be so impressed with how they purchased this horse for twenty five hundred.

01:40That is such a win. I mean, oh, my God.

01:44Yeah, that is. I mean, for those of you who don't know, horses sell for a lot.

01:49Hundreds of thousands, millions of dollars.

01:51Millions of dollars. And a lot of these horses who are in the Derby and are in these tough races,

01:55they spend a crazy amount of money because, you know, they're trying to buy a winner based on the breeding.

02:01So. So, yeah, to have an underdog like that is fantastic.

02:03And like you said, a really respectable finish in the Derby.

02:06Ninth place in the Derby is not bad.

02:09And he has the same trainer jockey today, same connections.

02:12He's a closer, so he'll probably be near the back early, I would imagine.

02:17You know, but yeah, really, really strong player in here.

02:22Kapoluka is one of these local horses that's going to be stepping up.

02:25We have no idea really how good the horses that he's faced are, but he's three for three at this little down.

02:30So he likes this track and now he steps up and he faces tougher.

02:34Yeah, he's really consistently progressing.

02:37And I actually really like him as a price play in here.

02:40His trainer is a super ridiculously high win rate at this meet.

02:45Forty two percent.

02:46That's huge in horse racing.

02:48And that's out of 43 starters.

02:50So it's not like 42 percent, you know, with 10 starters.

02:54I mean, he's really winning right now.

02:55So he's on fire.

02:57I wouldn't sleep on this one.

02:58He's got the home field advantage.

03:00McAfee is actually a half sibling to Torpedo Anna, who has been one of the best horses in training over the last couple of years.

03:07And McAfee kind of had his big claim to fame in the Peter Pan.

03:11They made an equipment change.

03:13They put the blinkers on him, Alexa, and he really showed improvement.

03:17He was in the race a lot earlier.

03:19He showed a lot more early speed with those blinkers.

03:21So if he's able to improve off of that effort, I think he's a major player in here.

03:26I thought this was a really good finish when he was second in the Peter Pan.

03:29Yeah, I like him a lot, too, Gino.

03:31I think my only concern is the distance might be a little bit long for him.

03:36But he did get really close in the Peter Pan.

03:38Like you're seeing, this is going to be an easier field.

03:40He's a tepid favorite, which I like.

03:42You know, he's morning line three to one or plus 300.

03:45So hopefully he'll keep those odds or maybe even tick up a little bit and be a good play.

03:49But extradition just seems like a bit of a long shot in here.

03:53He was no match for Capo Luca.

03:55So he's going to have to turn the tables on that horse and then some other tougher rivals.

03:59Yeah, I had a pun.

04:00He should be extradited from this race.

04:02I just don't think he's going to be here.

04:06Clever again was actually a really like wise guy horse in the Preakness.

04:10He was only five to one in the Preakness.

04:12He got the lead.

04:12He sort of got the trip he wanted.

04:14That field was just a little bit too good.

04:16He's like a really tricky read for me because he obviously has

04:19talent, but he seems kind of one dimensional like he just wants the lead and he might have

04:24to face some other speed horses in here.

04:26We're showing you a replay of him winning.

04:28This was back at Oaklawn Park in March.

04:31So I'm not I mean, I respect him as a horse.

04:34I just I don't really know what to do with him overall in this spot.

04:37Yeah, I mean that was a huge race at Oaklawn, but then kind of blew it in the Preakness.

04:41Some excuses that day, like you said, really tough race, but he's going to want the lead

04:45and not look back.

04:46The only thing is he has Mo Plex, the number 10 on the outside, who's also going to be

04:50a big speed threat in here.

04:51So I could now he has a bit more experience running this distance than Mo Plex.

04:56So I can see him getting the spot, getting comfortable and wiring the field.

05:00But I could also see those two hooking up, burning each other out and leaving the field

05:04open for a closer to take over.

05:06If you're looking at the projector on the screen, you can see that the 10, the six and even the

05:11nine are all supposed to be pretty close early on.

05:14And I think that's what could make things a little difficult for Clever again.

05:17How about Bohemian style?

05:19If they were to win this race, Alexa, it'd be pretty impressive.

05:23They just claim this horse for twelve thousand five hundred and they step him way up into

05:28a graded stakes here.

05:30I applaud the the ambitiousness of this group, but I just feel like he's in tough.

05:35He's in tough.

05:36I think he's too slow here.

05:37You know, he's owned and trained by the same person.

05:39So they're just taking a shot, but I'm he's too big of a step for me to get behind him.

05:44Yep.

05:45Curvino is just one for twelve overall.

05:48He he is the type of horse who I could see being a late runner who picks up some pieces

05:53like he's going to have to get a little bit faster than he is, but he's not a hopeless

05:57long shot.

05:58Like some of these others in here, you feel like, gosh, a lot of things would have to

06:01happen for them to get the job done.

06:03What do you think about Curvino?

06:04He's a closer who just kind of struggles to get that final push.

06:08He needs to get the job done.

06:10He's had one win in twelve starts, but he hits the board a lot.

06:13I think eight or nine times on the board.

06:14So his figures, those figures are a little bit light.

06:18I think those might be a little bit longer distance than he really likes.

06:21He's also cross entered in a race in Kentucky at Churchill.

06:23So I'm not sure if he's shipping to this or not.

06:27Master Controller was very impressive on May the 24th.

06:30It was his first start as a four year as a three year old.

06:33So he hadn't raced since November of last year.

06:35He showed a lot more speed than he ever had shown before.

06:39And if he's able to use that weapon, that early speed, he's going to be a nuisance for

06:45a clever again, at least right.

06:46He's going to at least have a say in this race.

06:48I don't know if he's good enough to win.

06:50What do you think about Master Controller?

06:52I don't know if I agree he's going to have a say.

06:54So when he had that win, he was actually setting kind of slow fractions.

06:59Like he definitely had the pace advantage to get out there on the lead and wire it.

07:02And it was such a shorter distance.

07:04And when he's gone longer distances in the past, he hasn't been able to compete.

07:08So I really think he's a sprinter and I'm going to pass on him in here.

07:11We round out the field with a very quick New York bread who is sharp.

07:15He's been in the money in all seven of his seven races.

07:18So he's a cool horse to root for.

07:19That's Mo Plex who we see here.

07:21And Mo Plex was in a battle in the Bayshore, Alexa.

07:24It was basically a two horse race all the way around.

07:26What do you think about Mo Plex?

07:27My main concern with him is all of his wins have come at seven furlongs or less.

07:32And he's stayed in when he's gone a mile.

07:33So I do think his job in here is going to be to burn out the favorites so we get some value.

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