Tampa Bay Derby 2025: Horse Best Bets and Predictions

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00:00And we start over at Tampa Bay Downs with the Tampa Bay Derby.

00:04Kentucky Derby points are up for grabs.

00:06They are on the line here.

00:07Let's meet the field.

00:09From the inside, we start with the number one, Owen Almighty.

00:12Now, he comes off a runner-up effort in the Sam F. Davis.

00:16That is the local prep race right

00:18before the Tampa Bay Derby.

00:20And for Owen Almighty, he's been very good in his entire career.

00:24It's really tough to knock his overall body of work.

00:27He's going to make his third start now

00:29of the year after a layoff.

00:31So he should be stepping forward,

00:33getting a little more fit.

00:34Could be set for a big performance.

00:36And in this field, he could get a really nice trip.

00:39It looks like there's a couple that have some speed,

00:41but he also can sit behind horses.

00:43He's not a horse that needs the lead.

00:45So for running styles, he can kind of show speed

00:48or he can sit just behind horses,

00:50I think, and can pass them there.

00:52So that's the one, Owen Almighty,

00:54who will begin the field.

00:56The number two, Chancellor McPatrick.

00:58He was one of the best horses in this age group last year.

01:01So he's a three-year-old now.

01:03He's going to be making his first start as a three-year-old.

01:05He has not raced since the Breeders' Cup

01:08when he was one of the favorites in that race,

01:11but he just didn't run all that well.

01:14The way the track was playing out,

01:15it was playing much better for horses

01:17who have front-running speed.

01:19And that's just not what Chancellor McPatrick is.

01:22That would be my main concern with him in this race.

01:24He's not that fast early,

01:26and it's going to be his first start since November.

01:29So I think they're going to try to get this race

01:33to get him some fitness built up.

01:35And then in his next start,

01:36you could probably expect a better performance from him.

01:39And then maybe even in the Kentucky Derby,

01:41expect him to try to peak and run his best race that day.

01:44It's all kind of a timing thing.

01:46You don't want your horse

01:48or your same thing with the team, right?

01:50You don't want your team to peak too early in the season

01:52and then come playoff time,

01:53and you're just not playing as well as you were.

01:56That's what we need to see here from some of these horses

01:58kind of moving into the Kentucky Derby and those big races.

02:02So Chancellor McPatrick, he'll add the blinkers.

02:05Both the two, Chancellor McPatrick,

02:07and the three, Hill Road,

02:08are both going to be adding the blinkers.

02:11They're both trained by Chad Brown,

02:13and both of them are just not that fast early.

02:16A lot of times when you see a trainer

02:19or some connections add the blinkers,

02:22what that will do is it'll give a horse

02:24a little bit more focus,

02:25and it'll give the horse a little bit more speed.

02:27So that's what I think they're hoping to get

02:29for both Chancellor McPatrick and Hill Road.

02:32A couple thoughts on the number three, Hill Road.

02:35It was very good in his only start on the dirt.

02:37He finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

02:40He actually finished in front of Chancellor McPatrick,

02:43who's his stablemate and who was much more

02:46of the kind of the horse to beat in that race.

02:48So Hill Road also adds the blinkers.

02:51Both of these horses will be trying to close late,

02:54and they can just hope that they're not coming

02:56from so far out of it.

02:58The number four, Brodeur.

02:59Kind of the opposite end of the spectrum

03:01when you're talking about running styles.

03:03Brodeur has been impressive in his last two races,

03:06but in both of those races, it's been on a wet track,

03:10and he's been able to pretty much get to the front end

03:12and dictate things.

03:13And I just don't know if he's going to be able

03:15to get those type of circumstances in this particular race,

03:20because Brodeur will have to deal with Owen Almighty,

03:22who's pretty quick early on.

03:24And then to the outside, you have Naughty Rascal,

03:27who's pretty quick early on.

03:28You also have Patch Adams,

03:31who I think is going to be able to sit pretty close.

03:33So with a few other speed horses here,

03:37I just need to see one from Brodeur.

03:39I need to see how good he is

03:41before I'm able to really get excited

03:44about his chances in this particular spot.

03:47So the number five is Filoso,

03:50and Filoso will add the Blinkers.

03:53Now he's, again, just like Chancellor McPatrick

03:56and just like Hill Road.

03:57He's a deep closer who is now going to add the Blinkers,

04:01hoping that the equipment change

04:03can shake him up a little bit

04:05and get him closer in the race early on

04:07so he doesn't have to be so far back,

04:10and he doesn't have to be kind of at the mercy

04:12of everyone else in the race, right?

04:14When you're a deep closer,

04:15you need the horses in front of you

04:17to go really fast and to set it up well for you,

04:20and if that doesn't happen,

04:21you're gonna be in some serious trouble,

04:23and that's what worries me

04:24about a horse like Filoso in here.

04:26Can the Blinkers get him a lot closer?

04:29We'll find out.

04:31We move to Naughty Rascal.

04:33He's the next one to take a look at.

04:35Now, he's one of these horses

04:36who is better than his running lines would suggest.

04:41He's a very honest horse.

04:43He's a fighter.

04:44I just don't know how far he really wants to go.

04:47He's a horse who's run well on turf.

04:49He's run well on dirt.

04:51He's run well over at Tampa Bay Downs,

04:53but he's not a horse who I think

04:56really wants to go farther than a mile,

04:58and this is a race at a mile and a 16th at Tampa Bay Downs,

05:02so what I'm projecting for Naughty Rascal,

05:05I think he's gonna be the type of horse

05:07who shows some early speed,

05:09who's gonna be a part of the early pace,

05:11and I could see him maybe hanging on

05:15for like a third or a fourth in here,

05:17but of a big price, if you're playing trifectas,

05:20if you're playing and looking for bigger prices,

05:23I wouldn't talk you off using him

05:24at the bottom of your exotics,

05:26just like others a little bit more in here

05:28and the trips they might get could be a little kinder

05:31and a little softer than what will happen

05:33for Naughty Rascal.

05:34We round things out with Patch Adams.

05:37Patch Adams is the number seven in here,

05:39and he's raced three times in his career,

05:42and overall, I think he is a horse

05:46who has one of the highest ceilings.

05:47Like if everybody showed up with their A game

05:50and they all ran their best race,

05:52I think Patch Adams would win this race.

05:54What I like about him, he has some speed,

05:58but he can also sit off horses and pass,

06:00and he's shown us some versatility.

06:02I could really see him getting a perfect trip in this race

06:06where it could be Owen Almighty and Brodeur

06:10and Naughty Rascal as three horses

06:13kind of pushing each other early on,

06:15and then Patch Adams could be right behind them,

06:18and he could be right in front of

06:20those three deeper closers,

06:22like Chancellor McPatrick and Hill Road and Filoso.

06:26I'd love to see Patch Adams sitting third

06:29or fourth in this race.

06:30I think he could get a fantastic trip in here.

06:33He's coming off of an effort last time out

06:35in the Southwest.

06:36That was over at Oak Lawn Park,

06:38and he just didn't have a very good start to the race,

06:42so he ended up much farther back than normal,

06:45and he was seventh out of nine horses in that race.

06:48In his first couple starts, he'd been a lot closer,

06:51and he showed us a new dimension.

06:53He showed us that if something goes wrong

06:56and if everything isn't going your way,

06:57he can still overcome that and run well,

07:00and that's what he did last time out

07:01when he finished fourth in the Southwest.

07:03He made a big move into contention.

07:06He was closing very well,

07:09and then he just got a little bit tired late.

07:11That was also his first start going two turns,

07:14his first start going the longer.

07:16I think he's going to have more fitness here,

07:18and I just project him to get a fantastic trip.

07:21He's drawn really, really well.

07:23Patch Adams to the outside

07:25is gonna be the top selection for me.

07:27Now, from a gambling standpoint,

07:29I don't know, price-wise, if he's two to one,

07:34is that a good enough price for you?

07:36I much prefer him to Chancellor McPatrick.

07:38If we can get around five to two or so,

07:41I think I'd be willing to make a win wager on Patch Adams.

07:44I just don't know if you're gonna get a price

07:45that's playable on him,

07:47but I do think he is the horse to beat.

07:49When you look at my selections here,

07:51I'm gonna put Patch Adams on top.

07:53The number seven is my top selection

07:55in the Tampa Bay Derby.

07:57Other horses that I will include

07:59underneath and around this horse.

08:01I did think that Filoso is a horse

08:04with the blinkers coming on,

08:06maybe a little bit of upside

08:07if they try to get him more involved early.

08:10So if you're looking for a price horse,

08:12that could be one that I could include.

08:14You know, Chancellor McPatrick and Owen Almighty,

08:16they're very, very logical in here.

08:18I think they make a whole lot of sense.

08:20They're all going to have to hold off Chancellor McPatrick.

08:22I'm just going to assume that he's a little bit short

08:25in this race and it'll take a couple races

08:27for him to build up his best fitness.

08:29So we'll put the seven Patch Adams on top

08:32in the Tampa Bay Derby.

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