Previewing the 1 Million Dollar California Crown Race

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00:00and we're going to talk about the grade one California crown that's going to go as race

00:04number nine and David it's not the biggest field in the world there's only going to be

00:08seven horses that were entered and it looks like only six will run we got some news earlier on

00:12Friday that looks like the horse to the outside the number seven won't be entered but not the

00:17biggest field but we still have five horses in here who are grade or group one winners so

00:22a pretty strong group and at least a very top heavy group yeah it's an important race on the

00:27calendar we're just five weeks away from the Breeders' Cup which is the championship series

00:31in horse racing and the California crown is the major prep race for those horses that are going

00:36to be pointing towards the Breeders' Cup based in California no surprise when you've got a major

00:40grade one race in California three Bob Baffert entrance in this race that he typically dominates

00:46the stakes racing out in California he's got a strong hand in the stakes we're going to look at

00:50the time form U.S. past performances and these are a modern way to handicap the races in fact

00:55we've got one of the men who know time form U.S. past performances as well as anyone they're visual

01:00they're interactive they illustrate how the race is projected to unfold for all of you out there

01:05all of you sports grid viewers you can get a free race card with the code s g t f sports grid time

01:12form 24 s g t f 24 visit drf.com sports grid to get your free card today David let's meet the field

01:20for the big one on Saturday race number nine at Santa Anita is the one million dollar

01:25California crown and one of those Bob Baffert runners from the inside this is Newgate he is

01:32a grade one winner he won the Santa Anita handicap back in March the problem with Newgate is he went

01:37to Dubai he raced in one of the biggest races in the world in the Dubai World Cup we just haven't

01:42seen him since then so we have quite a layoff for him to deal with but if you're watching his races

01:47in the morning or his training in the morning his workouts he seems to be doing pretty well

01:52he worked out with the horse named Prince of Monaco and kind of dusted that horse in his most

01:56recent one so what are your thoughts on Newgate here the first of three Bafferts that we'll meet

02:00yeah those three Bob Baffert runners in this race he's probably the one that has the most

02:04questions to answer coming off that long layoff having not seen him since the end of March of

02:08this year as you said overseas in that Dubai World Cup he did run very well to win that big cap at

02:14the beginning of March grade one winner over the Santa Anita course now coming back as you said I

02:19like the visual of his workouts dusted that horse Prince of Monaco and uh just seems like Worth is

02:24coming into the race doing well but I think he's going to need his very best effort coming off the

02:29layoff to beat the rivals that he meets here. Right next door is Subsanador this one is an

02:34Argentinian bred uh he's kind of a fascinating horse David because following along and being

02:39out in Southern California I remember when he came and he had his first race on December 26th

02:44opening day of Santa Anita last year and he had a little bit of buzz coming into the race but

02:49he you could tell visually and listening to some of the connections talk he was just a little behind

02:54in his training he had some kind of hiccups and it took a few months after that race for him to

02:59really get some foundation he came back in the big cap he ran very well there he almost won that day

03:05just behind Newgate and then he moved into the Richard Mandela barn another very very good

03:10trainer and I felt like that race at Monmouth Park the Island he really seemed like he got this horse

03:16figured out you and I did a preview video for DRF YouTube that day you picked this horse right on top

03:20he looked really really impressive what do you think about his chances in here?

03:24Yeah I think the mile and a quarter when he was beaten by Newgate in that Santa Anita handicap

03:28might have just been a little bit too far for him because it seemed like he had the race won

03:32and just gave it up at the very end of that race didn't love the trip that he got in the

03:35gold cup after that and as you noted he was very impressive last time out at Monmouth going a mile

03:40on the 16th in the Island made a blitz around the far turn to take that race over and almost

03:45seemed like he was a little bit unprofessional through the stretches he was pricking his ears

03:49and pulling himself up a little bit as the margin got a little closer coming to the wire I think

03:53he's coming into this race in great form we'll just see if he can overtake this three-headed

03:57monster from the Baffert stable. One of those is coming up next that's National Treasure you may

04:02know this name it sounds familiar he won the Preakness back in 2023 and what's so cool about

04:07him David is we see what happens when horses can stay in training from three to four this horse

04:13has just gotten a little bit better he's a multiple grade one winner this year I've never been

04:17all that high on him but when he gets the right type of trip he's really good at a mile up into

04:23about a mile and an eighth and he's very tough to pass on the front end so he's a horse that

04:27has a really high ceiling and he probably will be the speedy of the three Baffert men.

04:38Yeah you can see in some of our time formulas data there he's got the highest speed figures

04:42in the race he's the fastest horse early he's projected to have a pace advantage meaning that

04:47he's going to be up front probably setting a pace that's comfortable for him that so that

04:51makes a front runner like him especially dangerous and he just really had a legitimate excuse last

04:57time in the Whitney when he didn't make the lead over Arthur's ride I think his race was over

05:02pretty early that day he's going to get his preferred trip in here and if he runs his best

05:06race he's going to be awfully tough to catch in the stretch. One of the bigger long shots in this

05:11field will be Katana and this is a horse David who is really really honest a fun horse to own

05:18and to train shows up and gives you a good account of himself each and every time but I think we saw

05:22when he stepped up in the Pacific Classic he may have a ceiling right now as far as a competition

05:28level a class level I just need to see him break through against a group like this in order to

05:33really kind of level him up against this type. How do you think he stacks up here? Yeah I think the

05:38race he would point to that makes him somewhat competitive here is two back in the San Diego

05:42stakes where he finished second of the very good Dr. Venkman but there was a major no-show in that

05:46race a heavy favorite for Bob Baffert that failed to run his best race that day this horse was not

05:52particularly competitive in the Pacific Classic last time and I personally think this is a tougher

05:56race than that one. Muth grade one winner is a three-year-old facing older for the first time

06:02this is a really talented horse David he's had a couple hiccups throughout the year he was initially

06:07supposed to run in the Preakness then they were pointing him maybe to the Pacific Classic they

06:10picked out a softer spot for him which is a nice way to prep a horse for a big effort because if

06:15you're going to be pointing to a big race you don't necessarily want to have taxing race after taxing

06:20race leading into it so Muth is a horse to me thinking about the trip that he may be able to

06:25get sitting just off of National Treasure if that's how things go I feel like he has a really

06:30high ceiling and maybe we haven't really seen close to what he can do yet.

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