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Previewing the 1 Million Dollar California Crown Race
SportsGrid
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9/27/2024
Category
🥇
Sports
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00:00
and we're going to talk about the grade one California crown that's going to go as race
00:04
number nine and David it's not the biggest field in the world there's only going to be
00:08
seven horses that were entered and it looks like only six will run we got some news earlier on
00:12
Friday that looks like the horse to the outside the number seven won't be entered but not the
00:17
biggest field but we still have five horses in here who are grade or group one winners so
00:22
a pretty strong group and at least a very top heavy group yeah it's an important race on the
00:27
calendar we're just five weeks away from the Breeders' Cup which is the championship series
00:31
in horse racing and the California crown is the major prep race for those horses that are going
00:36
to be pointing towards the Breeders' Cup based in California no surprise when you've got a major
00:40
grade one race in California three Bob Baffert entrance in this race that he typically dominates
00:46
the stakes racing out in California he's got a strong hand in the stakes we're going to look at
00:50
the time form U.S. past performances and these are a modern way to handicap the races in fact
00:55
we've got one of the men who know time form U.S. past performances as well as anyone they're visual
01:00
they're interactive they illustrate how the race is projected to unfold for all of you out there
01:05
all of you sports grid viewers you can get a free race card with the code s g t f sports grid time
01:12
form 24 s g t f 24 visit drf.com sports grid to get your free card today David let's meet the field
01:20
for the big one on Saturday race number nine at Santa Anita is the one million dollar
01:25
California crown and one of those Bob Baffert runners from the inside this is Newgate he is
01:32
a grade one winner he won the Santa Anita handicap back in March the problem with Newgate is he went
01:37
to Dubai he raced in one of the biggest races in the world in the Dubai World Cup we just haven't
01:42
seen him since then so we have quite a layoff for him to deal with but if you're watching his races
01:47
in the morning or his training in the morning his workouts he seems to be doing pretty well
01:52
he worked out with the horse named Prince of Monaco and kind of dusted that horse in his most
01:56
recent one so what are your thoughts on Newgate here the first of three Bafferts that we'll meet
02:00
yeah those three Bob Baffert runners in this race he's probably the one that has the most
02:04
questions to answer coming off that long layoff having not seen him since the end of March of
02:08
this year as you said overseas in that Dubai World Cup he did run very well to win that big cap at
02:14
the beginning of March grade one winner over the Santa Anita course now coming back as you said I
02:19
like the visual of his workouts dusted that horse Prince of Monaco and uh just seems like Worth is
02:24
coming into the race doing well but I think he's going to need his very best effort coming off the
02:29
layoff to beat the rivals that he meets here. Right next door is Subsanador this one is an
02:34
Argentinian bred uh he's kind of a fascinating horse David because following along and being
02:39
out in Southern California I remember when he came and he had his first race on December 26th
02:44
opening day of Santa Anita last year and he had a little bit of buzz coming into the race but
02:49
he you could tell visually and listening to some of the connections talk he was just a little behind
02:54
in his training he had some kind of hiccups and it took a few months after that race for him to
02:59
really get some foundation he came back in the big cap he ran very well there he almost won that day
03:05
just behind Newgate and then he moved into the Richard Mandela barn another very very good
03:10
trainer and I felt like that race at Monmouth Park the Island he really seemed like he got this horse
03:16
figured out you and I did a preview video for DRF YouTube that day you picked this horse right on top
03:20
he looked really really impressive what do you think about his chances in here?
03:24
Yeah I think the mile and a quarter when he was beaten by Newgate in that Santa Anita handicap
03:28
might have just been a little bit too far for him because it seemed like he had the race won
03:32
and just gave it up at the very end of that race didn't love the trip that he got in the
03:35
gold cup after that and as you noted he was very impressive last time out at Monmouth going a mile
03:40
on the 16th in the Island made a blitz around the far turn to take that race over and almost
03:45
seemed like he was a little bit unprofessional through the stretches he was pricking his ears
03:49
and pulling himself up a little bit as the margin got a little closer coming to the wire I think
03:53
he's coming into this race in great form we'll just see if he can overtake this three-headed
03:57
monster from the Baffert stable. One of those is coming up next that's National Treasure you may
04:02
know this name it sounds familiar he won the Preakness back in 2023 and what's so cool about
04:07
him David is we see what happens when horses can stay in training from three to four this horse
04:13
has just gotten a little bit better he's a multiple grade one winner this year I've never been
04:17
all that high on him but when he gets the right type of trip he's really good at a mile up into
04:23
about a mile and an eighth and he's very tough to pass on the front end so he's a horse that
04:27
has a really high ceiling and he probably will be the speedy of the three Baffert men.
04:38
Yeah you can see in some of our time formulas data there he's got the highest speed figures
04:42
in the race he's the fastest horse early he's projected to have a pace advantage meaning that
04:47
he's going to be up front probably setting a pace that's comfortable for him that so that
04:51
makes a front runner like him especially dangerous and he just really had a legitimate excuse last
04:57
time in the Whitney when he didn't make the lead over Arthur's ride I think his race was over
05:02
pretty early that day he's going to get his preferred trip in here and if he runs his best
05:06
race he's going to be awfully tough to catch in the stretch. One of the bigger long shots in this
05:11
field will be Katana and this is a horse David who is really really honest a fun horse to own
05:18
and to train shows up and gives you a good account of himself each and every time but I think we saw
05:22
when he stepped up in the Pacific Classic he may have a ceiling right now as far as a competition
05:28
level a class level I just need to see him break through against a group like this in order to
05:33
really kind of level him up against this type. How do you think he stacks up here? Yeah I think the
05:38
race he would point to that makes him somewhat competitive here is two back in the San Diego
05:42
stakes where he finished second of the very good Dr. Venkman but there was a major no-show in that
05:46
race a heavy favorite for Bob Baffert that failed to run his best race that day this horse was not
05:52
particularly competitive in the Pacific Classic last time and I personally think this is a tougher
05:56
race than that one. Muth grade one winner is a three-year-old facing older for the first time
06:02
this is a really talented horse David he's had a couple hiccups throughout the year he was initially
06:07
supposed to run in the Preakness then they were pointing him maybe to the Pacific Classic they
06:10
picked out a softer spot for him which is a nice way to prep a horse for a big effort because if
06:15
you're going to be pointing to a big race you don't necessarily want to have taxing race after taxing
06:20
race leading into it so Muth is a horse to me thinking about the trip that he may be able to
06:25
get sitting just off of National Treasure if that's how things go I feel like he has a really
06:30
high ceiling and maybe we haven't really seen close to what he can do yet.
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