Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh (Retd.), Distinguished Fellow, United Service Institute of India and Editor, Salute speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on implications of US initiating peace talks with Russia | SAM Conversation - video Dailymotion

South Asia Monitor

Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh (Retd.), Distinguished Fellow, United Service Institute of India and Editor, Salute speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on implications of US initiating peace talks with Russia | SAM Conversation

Transcript

00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor.

00:14Today our topic is U.S. Initiating Peace Talks with Russia.

00:21It is our pleasure to welcome Major General Jagatbir Singh, retired Distinguished Fellow

00:28United Service Institution of India and Editor, The Salute Magazine.

00:35Yesterday, 24th February 2025, marked three years of the Russo-Ukraine War, which began

00:51exactly on 24th February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine as part of an escalation of

01:04its earlier war, which began in 2014, considered as the largest and deadliest of conflicts

01:17in Europe since World War II.

01:21It has caused hundreds of thousands of military casualties, tens of thousands of Ukrainian

01:29civilian casualties and over the three years of this conflict, Ukraine has lost about 20%

01:40of its territory to the Russians.

01:44From a population of about 41 million, about 8 million are reported to be displaced and

01:56more than 8.2 million of Ukrainians have fled, resulting in the largest of refugee crisis

02:03since World War II.

02:08Russia always avoided any public condemnation of Russia for this conflict at a time when

02:16no nation helped India with urgently required weaponry.

02:23It was the USSR, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, also known as Soviet Union, which

02:34supplied up to 80% of our requirements for the army, navy and air force at political

02:43prices under the Treaty of Peace and Friendship and Cooperation, framed in 1971.

02:56Just as the Russo-Ukraine war was about to complete three years, the second time US President

03:07Donald Trump literally played his trump card by splitting with his European allies and

03:18not just refusing to blame Russia for its invasion but also shaking hands with Vladimir

03:26Putin with a view to stopping this war as a part of his attempt to get this war to stop

03:43and there seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel.

03:50General Jagatpeer, you are someone who has been following this for the last three years.

04:04From some brief comments about how and why it began and thereafter, whatever we can have

04:11from you, please.

04:12Good evening, sir.

04:13And firstly, I thank you very much for calling me to be part of this podcast by Sam.

04:22And it's indeed wonderful for me to be here present with you all and all your viewers.

04:27And I consider it a rare honor and privilege to be called to this platform to give my views

04:33on the Russia-Ukraine war.

04:35I call it, I say today that a turning point is visible.

04:40Now, as you rightly said, as we were approaching the third anniversary, the conflict today

04:46is at a turning point and a sign of that was the latest issue of The Economist magazine

04:53that shows a picture representative of the President of the US, Trump, with his back

05:00turned.

05:01So literally, as you said, he's turned his back on his European allies.

05:06Everyone thought at the beginning of the war that, you know, the problem was NATO expanding

05:11into towards Russia.

05:14And then people said in between that NATO's expanded by taking Norway and Sweden and other

05:19countries into their fold.

05:21And today, what you've seen is a complete reversal of US policy, that the first signs

05:27were visible on 12th February.

05:30And those signs were visible earlier when the election campaign was going on.

05:36At that time, President, I mean, that time he was not President, he was candidate of

05:39the Republican Party, former President Trump, he termed it as a ridiculous war.

05:46So no one could have imagined this sudden reversal, sudden turnabout.

05:51And today, literally, I say that NATO is facing its biggest existential crisis that it's faced

06:01because bulk of the funding for NATO was done by the United States.

06:08And constant refrain was that the European powers need to, you know, step up on their

06:13defense spending.

06:16Bulk of the things, people and resources were given by the United States throughout when

06:21they were confronting Soviet Union.

06:24But after the Cold War collapsed in 1991.

06:29And that's when the seeds of this whole thing started.

06:32You see, there are three ways of looking at it.

06:35Everybody the world over says this war started in 2024, Feb 2024.

06:40A Ukrainian will say it started in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea.

06:46But if you look back, as far as Russian imperialist designs, I won't even say Soviet Union, you

06:52know, get back to the Soviet Empire, I'll say Russian imperialist designs were that

06:58after 1991, they felt weakened because at that time, President Reagan at that time and

07:06a security advisor very famously made a statement that NATO will not expand that inch eastward.

07:12And then you've seen this steady expansion of NATO.

07:15And you've seen these agreements, which are all thrown to the winds, literally the Minks

07:19Agreement and all, where, you know, the nuclear weapons, which were Russian nuclear weapon

07:25station in Ukraine, they were removed.

07:28So I mean, Russia was looking at this, they've considered the Ukrainians as a Slavic people

07:36more aligned to them than to Western Europe.

07:39And they felt that the minute it was a red line for them, NATO getting into Ukraine.

07:45And they had one set of rules for Belorussia.

07:48And they wanted to apply the same set of rules as far as Ukraine goes.

07:54Maybe the war, since you asked me to talk a bit on this, initially, everyone thought

07:58when the war took place that, you know, it was perceived that it would be an overwhelming

08:03result in Ukraine's, in Russian's favor, they'll just go over, but go through, you know, Ukraine

08:10like a knife, hot knife through butter, that never happened.

08:16Thereafter, analysts felt that Russia would collapse because the sanctions imposed, the

08:22combined West, arming of Ukraine, and the support of the population, the losses you

08:29talked about, Russia apparently has lost 1,75,000 combatants, now that's a lot, that's about,

08:37you can imagine over three years, every month, how many they, it adds up to.

08:42So that's a lot, which losses which have taken place, but no one is sure of the exact figures,

08:47but there are large amounts of people who've been displaced, like you said.

08:51And apart from this, there are a large amount of fatalities, to the extent that Russia even

08:56had to get in, when the key, the inclusion into Kursk took place, they had to get in

09:02troops from North Korea.

09:05And I'm told that there are a large amount of troops who have been, suffered casualties

09:10there also, about one third of the North Koreans have suffered casualties.

09:13So that is the, today the West is divided, the first sign of that was, you know, as I

09:19said, during the election campaign.

09:21And after that, you had the comments of the Defense Secretary Peter Hesget on the 12th

09:28of February, when he spoke at a conference, a NATO conference, thereafter, you had the

09:34Vice President, literally showing a mirror to Europeans at the Munich Security Conference.

09:42And the latest thing is, I mean, that the West was even divided on the language of the

09:49statement to be brought out on to mark the third year, which was yesterday by the G7.

09:55And the resolution, which was to be passed in the UN General Assembly, and I'm not talking

10:01about the Security Council, in the General Assembly, against condemning this invasion

10:07of Ukraine, Russia, US, North Korea, and Iran, were the three countries, I mean, were

10:19amongst the 18 countries, four of them, which voted against it.

10:23Now just see, which are the countries, how things have changed so fast.

10:27India of course, has been consistent in its stance and it abstained.

10:31So you had countries like France and UK and all, you know, Germany, they voted for it.

10:3893 voted for it, 18 against and 65 abstained, including India, China, and Brazil.

10:44So all the BRIC countries, except for Russia, abstained.

10:49So look at the changes that have taken place in world geopolitics.

10:54It's something that nobody could have imagined.

10:57No analyst imagined it, none of the analysts imagined it.

11:00I've listened to numerous analysts from, you know, various think tanks of the US, nobody

11:06even, in fact, even today, the language is that, you know, the opposite, that it's basically

11:12pro-Ukrainian thing, the narrative which is coming out.

11:17So I mean, this nobody could imagine.

11:19So as I said, and there have been attritional conflicts, marginal gains have taken place.

11:27And as you rightly brought out, sir, economies of both countries are suffering.

11:32Ukraine has been damaged to a large degree, there are immense amount of casualties and

11:40President Trump promised to end the war.

11:43And he's, after being sidelined throughout by President Joe Biden, he, I mean, nobody

11:49will talk to Putin and all that.

11:52Today what happened?

11:53Zelensky has been called a dictator.

11:58And President Trump has spoken on a 90-minute conference call with President Putin to try

12:05to resolve the thing.

12:07And following that conversation, see how fast things move.

12:11Within three to four days, there have been negotiations which took place, not in a European

12:16country, because there's no European country which is neutral, except for Switzerland.

12:21So where did the negotiations take place in Riyadh?

12:25And who was there at the negotiations?

12:27The people present at the negotiations were the Americans, represented by the Secretary

12:32of State, by the NSA, by Stephen Wilcox, who's the person in charge of Middle East, his envoy.

12:40And Lavrov was there.

12:42So that's the level.

12:44So the talks are, look at the number of different talks taking place.

12:49There are talks in Riyadh to end the war.

12:51European leaders have met separately.

12:53And at the General Assembly, you have a vote talking to end the war.

12:56So there are three parallel things going on.

13:02It's really a bunch of surprises, you know.

13:06But going back three years ago, you know, it was, one clearly remembers that there were

13:14enough of warnings that were issued by Vladimir Putin that look, don't, don't get into this

13:23NATO, you know, don't get, get into them.

13:29But Vladimir Zelensky was, was, was bent, was evil.

13:36He had, he was seeing his own, you know, what he thought was a very bright side.

13:43And this carried on the way, the way this man has, you know, allowed his country to

13:51get, you know, so badly bashed up.

13:55Just because there's a host of NATO countries, which are supplying him with weaponry.

14:04Entire NATO was supplying him with weaponry.

14:09You know, when you look back at, one is not, one is not trying to, I don't want to sound

14:15like a moralist, but now when you look back at Biden's tenure, look at what he's achieved,

14:22what he, what he's done for the, for the Americans.

14:25Yes, you're absolutely right, as far as your comments are concerned, sir, there's no doubt

14:34of what has happened.

14:35The red lines were visible and, but no one thought that Russia would, you know, cross

14:39because slowly America, the West has been crossing multiple red lines and taking many

14:46other countries under the umbrella of NATO.

14:50And today I'd say there's even a divide between Eastern Europe and Western Europe, because

14:57Western Europe has the money, they have the resources, but they're spending less on defence

15:02because they feel less threatened, whereas Eastern Europe, it is totally the opposite.

15:09As far as Eastern Europe is concerned, they're spending more on defence and they are worried

15:13about their borders with Russia, which, you know, so Poland is one country, but at the

15:20contrary, when you look at it, how many of them are actually willing to put boots on

15:24the ground?

15:26That was something that was missing.

15:28So rightly saying, and if we go back into history, we're all aware of all the revolution

15:34that took place there, the removal of presidents and how Zelensky came into power and what

15:39happened.

15:40I think let's not go there.

15:41So let's talk about the future.

15:42What about the negotiations?

15:43What's going to happen?

15:44How's that going to take place?

15:45What do you know?

15:46How can you resolve issues which are incompatible collisions of reality?

15:55Everybody has their own take on this.

15:58So where will you come to a common meeting ground, sir?

16:01According to some reports, there seems to be, Zelensky is sort of actually feeling the

16:13pinch now because there are statements being attributed to him, you know, should I step

16:20down or, you know, may even accept a part of his country being, never know what comes

16:34out in the next few days, literally.

16:37But all we can be very thankful about is that I think there is a, I think we can say the

16:46beginning of the end is approaching, you know, and as far as India is concerned, it's a kind

16:54of a vindication that we remained neutral as a military man and we are both from the

17:07armoured corps. We both used the T-series of Russian tanks, T-54s, T-55s, which we needed

17:21very badly in 1971.

17:24And then later, those of us who used their equipment, which we got very timely, there's no

17:36denying a soft corner, well, that's, I won't go to more than that, you know, into personal

17:46opinions. But the fact remains that as a country, we remained, you know, quite consistently

17:53neutral. And I think it was very significant when Mr. Narendra Modi said, I'm on the side of

18:05peace. He put that, that one, you know, statement of his stands out.

18:16Jagatvir?

18:17You cover a lot of ground, sir, so I'll go over each issue separately and little slowly, sir.

18:25The first issue is the ceasefire talks which have started and preceding the talks, very

18:32important statement was given out by the Secretary of Defence for the US, when he

18:37categorically said that it is very difficult and he said it's unrealistic for Ukraine to get

18:45back the territory that has been captured or lost.

18:49The second issue, which he said, which I feel was more important than the first issue, was

18:54the first issue everybody in their minds had felt and yes, that is there.

18:59Second issue is when he said that there's no question of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO.

19:09Now, that's a huge, huge step.

19:11And the third issue, he said that even if anybody positions their troops in NATO for

19:16anything, Article 5 will not apply.

19:19So you've seen in one stroke, in one day on 12th of February, how the matrix changed

19:26completely. So that's one thing.

19:28And now when the talks took place, I've been reading about that.

19:33Three other things have been said.

19:35I mean, everybody is going to focus on, you know, rebuilding how this ceasefire will take

19:40place. What are the security guarantees?

19:42And when I think when President Putin said that, you know, he's a dictator, he never won

19:47election. He, President Zelensky, in two steps, threw the last card he had.

19:53He said, in that case, I'm willing to resign, but give me NATO membership.

19:57Now, surely NATO membership doesn't hinge on his being president or not being president.

20:03Irrespective of who is president of Ukraine, President Putin will, I mean, Russia will

20:10not see X or Y or Z as the president of Ukraine and membership for NATO.

20:16I mean, so I mean, that's, I call it like almost like a red herring being thrown there.

20:22So that's one thing.

20:23So this alternative of NATO membership were discussed earlier, but with the American

20:31statement brought out and the way they talked in the summit in Munich and, you know,

20:38Munich, of course, they never touched it, but the earlier summit and after that, I think

20:42they're totally ruled out.

20:43And in fact, now what I've been given to understand is that we focused, one of the

20:49issues discussed in the talks was, you know, restoring the embassy staff between US and

20:54Russia back to the earlier levels, creating a high level team for negotiation and

20:59exploring ways to, you know, strengthen economic cooperation.

21:03So what they're hinting at is Russia wants, naturally, they want the sanctions lifted.

21:08So if the sanctions are lifted, that's swift, which was that, you know, financial

21:13currency, stopping the financial currencies from being transferred to each other.

21:19That will go. There'll be part and parcel of the, you know, globalized world order

21:25again, as far as trade goes.

21:27So, I mean, these are huge things.

21:29And he, President Putin is going to get his, demand his pound of flesh.

21:38Now, a lot of people have talked of how do you ensure security guarantees?

21:42One of the things people said is the best security guarantee, apart from peacekeeping

21:47troops, is to say that Ukraine will become a member of NATO.

21:52And if they violate it, then Ukraine can be taken as a member of NATO.

21:56Now, US has negated that.

21:59Next, without US support, how long can Ukraine last?

22:04What are the percentage of weapons?

22:06What is the percentage of money being pumped in by US?

22:11All these long range missiles, the air defense systems, a lot of them are from US.

22:17Today, he'll, earlier President Biden had denied certain targets by him and all to be

22:23used. Today, he'll stop supplying those systems.

22:27Then what happens? How much ammunition do they have?

22:30We all know how ammunition is calculated, how they come in.

22:33Say if your chain goes for that, I think maximum couple of three to six months is what

22:39the reserves they'll have.

22:41And how do you encounter that?

22:43How do you overcome that?

22:45So this is something which I've talked about.

22:47The next thing is, how do you enforce the peace?

22:51Who's going to, who will do that?

22:53Who's going to ensure?

22:55The biggest problem for Ukraine is security guarantees.

22:59So what sort of security guarantees can be done?

23:06Now, Prime Minister of Britain, the UK Prime Minister, he said we'll be willing to

23:12provide peacekeepers.

23:14We'll be willing to do this.

23:15Earlier, France had offered.

23:17Now, France is not that keen and Poland has ruled it out.

23:21So, I mean, somebody has to come in.

23:23And today, President Putin has categorically said or the Russians have categorically said

23:29that any peace, any forces from a NATO country will be seen as an infringement of the

23:39NATO, you know, on our soil.

23:41So, I mean, on Ukraine's soil.

23:43So, I mean, that's an issue that people have to think of.

23:47So the next issue you raise, sir, is the most important one, and that is India's stance

23:55during the war and how the implication of this will affect India.

23:59So you very correctly said that India, our Prime Minister said this is not a era for

24:08war. So I've said that India has been consistent in its stand throughout.

24:14And we've always focused on dialogue and diplomacy.

24:18We've held a balanced position.

24:20And our Prime Minister has visited both Kiev and Moscow.

24:23He's engaged with both the leaders.

24:25We also, like you talked of, you know, tanks coming from Russia.

24:31Yes. But part of our equipment came from Soviet Union and the Soviet Union defense

24:37industrial complex is scattered.

24:39And a large part of that was in Ukraine, some portion of that.

24:44Yes. So we've got our aircraft from there, our AN series of aircraft came from there,

24:49the AN-32.

24:50But that's one thing.

24:52The overall of the AN-32 has also been delayed because of this.

24:56But apart from that, we also get all the gas turbine engines for our ships from there.

25:01So we get a lot of engines from there.

25:03And two of those facilities were hit by Russian missiles.

25:07So we've had disruptions in our supply chain.

25:09So then you have disruptions as far as your spares go.

25:13For almost 10 years, for almost 10 years after the breakup of USSR, we had, you know,

25:22this thing, a crisis of spares.

25:26Absolutely. Which has again taken place now.

25:29But, you know, so that was something that is known, everybody knows, because will they

25:34give other countries spares or will they focus on their own thing?

25:37So and when a facility gets damaged, that trade, it takes time to rebuild it.

25:43So that's one thing. Other thing is that look at the economic downside of the whole

25:47thing. We've been accused by the West of getting oil from Russia at cheaper prices.

25:54That's there.

25:55But the cost of fuel, because of the tension, the cost of fuel has gone up, fertilizer has

26:01gone up, food has gone up.

26:02So as a result, inflation has gone up.

26:04As a result, currencies have fallen.

26:07And you've seen the result of the Indian currency weakening on the stock market.

26:13So, I mean, it's all a cascading effect.

26:15So as far as I'm concerned, I feel the best news is to stop this war.

26:21No military person wants war.

26:23But the problem is how you can resolve the differences which are so deep rooted.

26:28And I personally feel that, though I've always maintained that the two countries who can

26:34stop this war are US and Russia.

26:36There's no third country.

26:38But for them, but for this, I always maintain that Ukraine should be part of that

26:44negotiation. So you may like to sideline European powers, but you cannot afford to not

26:50have Ukraine as part of the negotiation.

26:53So that's why I think.

26:55But what stands out, sir, because of all this is the way today the US has changed track

27:03from one side to the other or reversed its position.

27:07And suddenly you said, surprised.

27:10I'll admit that the Europeans were shocked.

27:14They were shocked. It was almost a sense of disbelief in most European capital.

27:19And that disbelief is carrying on in the analysts, you see.

27:23So what does it show you?

27:24That today you have to have your own capability to stand on your own feet.

27:28You must have developed your own hard part because anybody can, if you're too dependent on

27:34somebody, they can, what if they choose a point and a time to discard you when you're most

27:40vulnerable? So I mean, that's something that needs to be seen and something that we must

27:45look at, sir. So for India, as I said, our multi-alignment policy.

27:49I must say, sir, that this is something that has been extremely successful and we must, you

27:56know, compliment the way we have carried out, walked the tightrope, as somebody said.

28:02We again abstained from the vote today.

28:05So we never took any side again.

28:07And dialogue, I said, and also another issue that nobody talks of much is that, you know,

28:14we couldn't afford to take any other stance because if we had taken a very pro-Western and US

28:20stance, Russia would have gone closer to China.

28:23And for us, a close alliance between China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, that has got far more

28:32damaging consequences for India.

28:35We have to have Russia on our side.

28:37As you said, we've got old friendship, deep friendship.

28:41They've supported us in 1971 war and they've been constantly by our side.

28:47We also had a problem back to this defence exports.

28:52You know, the problem with the S-400.

28:55So the Americans were going to put CAATSA against us.

28:57We got out of that. But now that fear is not there, sir.

29:01So, you know, I think we need to end this Russian alienation, sir, and that removal of the

29:10sanctions. And that's extremely important.

29:12So, I mean, this is a very tricky time the world is in.

29:19But as you said, there's some ray of hope that is there, sir.

29:22I hope things work out and I hope things work out well as far as the conflict is concerned,

29:30sir.

29:36Put it across very relevantly and very clearly.

29:41Whatever it is, I think there is no denying that Donald Trump needs to be thanked for

29:54all it whatever is literally his trump card.

29:58But something which he had, he showed that he had the guts to do.

30:04There's so much this man was, you know, facing.

30:08He's headstrong and he's, you know, whatever it is, all we can do is hope and pray that

30:17this war is, you know, effectively ended.

30:23Period.

30:25Absolutely right, sir.

30:26You know, all wars end sometimes, all wars end sometimes, but the manner in which they

30:32end is important because the ending determines the peace that is to follow.

30:38Both World War II and Cold War charted a new course as far as the security architecture

30:44of Europe and the world is concerned.

30:46So let's see.

30:48I think there's a new security architecture being unveiled now and we'll see it as it

30:52comes at the end of these talks.

30:55And hopefully, you know, the complexities of this conflict preclude a very quick solution.

31:01But regardless of the outcome of the negotiation, you know, the war in Ukraine has

31:06already changed the character of conflicts to a great degree.

31:10So but that's entirely a different issue.

31:12So we won't get into that part.

31:15Countries have to adapt to the new realities and the main credibility of the global

31:21leaders and the policymakers today will be on how soon this conflict ends.

31:28And unfortunately, no conflict has a fit all settlement.

31:32That means everybody is there.

31:34But the lessons of a fruitless war, you know, and like you brought up the damage and all,

31:41can ensure that, you know, we have more of a lasting peace.

31:45But what is the acceptable end is, you know, leaves a lot of scope for the correct

31:54definitions as far as, you know, acceptable end for one may be something, acceptable end

31:59for Europe may be something, for Russia may be something, for U.S.

32:04may be something. But for bulk of the countries around the world, the acceptable end, the

32:08start point is the war must end.

32:10So this conflict must end and peace must come back.

32:15So that's what I have to say, sir.

32:17And once again, I thank you very much for calling me here to present my views.

32:23No, it was very, very nice hearing all that you put across.

32:27Thank you. All the best.

32:31Thank you, sir.

Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh (Retd.), Distinguished Fellow, United Service Institute of India and Editor, Salute speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on implications of US initiating peace talks with Russia | SAM Conversation

Category

Transcript

Recommended