Dr. Smruti Pattanaik, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses speaks with Col Anil Bhat (retd.) on the Bangladesh transition and its implications for South Asia | SAM Conversation - video Dailymotion

South Asia Monitor

Dr. Smruti Pattanaik, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses speaks with Col Anil Bhat (retd.) on the Bangladesh transition and its implications for South Asia | SAM Conversation

Transcript

00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor. Bangladesh in Transition

00:17and its Implications for South Asia. For this topic, it is our pleasure to welcome Dr. Smruti

00:26S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis.

00:39The Awami League, which was a breakaway from the Muslim League in 1949 and named as Awami League

00:50in honour of people, Awam meaning the people and also the party which got Bangladesh,

00:59because of which East Pakistan became Bangladesh, because of which it got its liberation.

01:05In June 2024, when a move was made to give 30% of reservation for descendants of freedom fighters,

01:25that opened the floodgates of absolute chaos and anarchy. From August began

01:40their iconic scenes of Bangabandhu, Mujibur Rahman's statue being attempted to be destroyed

01:53and then began the systematic targeting of Hindus, Buddhists, Christians and which

02:05eventually turned in particular against Hindus, destruction of their properties, their businesses

02:13and killings. The only consolation so far, very recently which has come about, is that

02:26the Awami League has gone to the International Criminal Court charging, you know,

02:34the one who is hitting Bangladesh with crimes and Donald Trump too has spoken up against it.

02:55Shruti, I think the first thing if you will please elaborate on is,

03:01what is it that led to all this? Briefly.

03:07I would say that, as you rightly said, the protest movement started in June. It was a protest against

03:15Supreme Court, you know, it's actually, there was an amendment, there was a circular which was

03:24in fact brought in by Awami League government in 2018, where grade 9 to grade 13 jobs,

03:31government jobs, were supposed to be without quota. Now, Supreme Court in its June judgment

03:37said that this quota is being restored because it is an ultra-violence of the constitution,

03:42because the constitutional provision is that they have to give quota to those people who fought in

03:48the liberation war. You know, this is basically the quota being given to the next generation,

03:56not next to next generation, including, you know, grandchildren of the freedom fighters. And

04:01since all of us, we know that in any kind of government jobs, when quota is introduced and

04:06government jobs, this test is very scarce. And so most of the middle class educated people,

04:11they feel that, you know, their attempt to rise in the social ladder actually has been,

04:17you know, is being taken by the government. Now, when the Supreme Court gave this particular

04:22judgment, given the fact that Awami League had a lot of control over the judiciary,

04:27the students thought that probably this is something that, you know, probably was premeditated

04:33and it was Awami League probably wanted to restore, you know, the reservation which it had

04:40done away with in 2018. That is number one. Number two is that, you know, after when this quota

04:47movement, in fact, garnered momentum in July, Sheikh Hasina's statement that if I don't give

04:54reservation to the freedom fighters, shall I give the reservation to the Razaqars? Razaqar in

05:00Bangladesh's political context is a very derogatory kind of terminology. So, students, of course,

05:07you know, this is something which made the students extremely angry and they felt that,

05:12you know, they're being labeled as anti-national in the common parlance. It will be anti-national,

05:18it will be the collaborator with the Pakistani regime, which is worse than being anti-national.

05:23So, that actually, in fact, fuelled this, you know, this particular movement and, of course,

05:29as it is known as Gano Abhiyuthan, which is people's revolution, people's revolt.

05:34So, obviously, people from all walk of life, they joined with the youth when people were

05:42killed and the former prime minister addressed the nation, you know, actually many people feel

05:49that she was not apologetic regarding the death of six students. And after that, the order was given

05:57to clamp down on this movement, which actually resulted in much more killing, which actually

06:03brought the army saying that they will stand by the nation, which actually meant that they're not

06:08going to stand by the government. Obviously, there was no other option rather than providing

06:13safe passes to Sheikh Hasina and we all know that she has taken asylum in India now.

06:23Thank you. You know, Muhammad Yunus,

06:28it's quite obvious that all this mayhem against Hindus doesn't seem to have moved him.

06:39And as far as governing of Bangladesh is concerned, also I don't think there is anything that he can

06:47be given credit to. Would you like to elaborate on what he has done or what he is supposed to be

06:56doing? In fact, when he came in as the chief advisor of the interim regime, initially he

07:07was slightly reluctant and later the students who had spearheaded this particular movement,

07:12in fact, asked for him to give, you know, to lead the country at this particular critical

07:17moment of the transition. Initially, when he joined the movement, you know, there were

07:24attacks against the Hindus, including some of the supporters of Aamili. There was attack also on the

07:31police and many of the police left that post and went into hiding. So, there was complete chaos

07:36in Dhaka and other areas. Police was not present. So, it was taken, the street was taken by,

07:43you know, criminal gangs belonging to all political affiliation and also, you know,

07:50the general people, you know, who thought this is an opportunity to loot. Some people thought

07:56this is an opportunity to teach a lesson to the minorities because minorities are seen,

08:01especially the Hindus, are seen as supporters of the Aamili. And in fact, in the last 10 years

08:08of Haseena's rule, I'm not saying, I'm not including the 15 years because the first five

08:13years he had got a thumping majority rule the country. But then again, you know, I would say

08:17that in the last 10 to 15 years, many believed, you know, it's a perception, it's not that what

08:25is the reality, it's very difficult to know. There was a belief that Aamili had knowingly placed

08:30Hindus in more important positions at the cost of, you know, Muslims who are equally good.

08:37And like, for example, they are made DCs. One of them was, I think, the chairman of the

08:44textbook committee, with somewhere also vice chancellors and somewhere also

08:51appointed as a police super, in a sense, police commissioner. So, in a sense,

08:57so there was this anger because of the perception and because of the motivated campaign by

09:03vested interest to say that, you know, Aamili is appeasing the Hindus, Aamili is appeasing the

09:08India. So, there was this kind of perception which was created by the vested interest,

09:13whether it, you know, it is true that the Hindus were in important position.

09:17So, therefore, the thing is that, you know, the attack was both Hindu as a minority community,

09:23who has had taken advantage of Aamili being in the rule, that is number one. Number two,

09:28Hindus as supporters of Aamili, since the target was Aamili, so Hindu automatically became the

09:33target. Third is that in Bangladesh, we have seen, in fact, in the past since Bangladesh's

09:38liberation, the, you know, there is this vested property act. So, in a sense, you can claim a

09:43Hindu property saying that this is a vested property and there is a coalition of a kind of

09:49interest. So, a person who goes and says that this is a vested property, the DC, which lists that

09:55particular property as vested property, and there is this bribe even to get your legitimate property

10:01out of the list of the vested property, sometimes people have to pay bribes. So, there is Hindu

10:06are economically vulnerable because as all of us we know in East Pakistan, the landed,

10:12as you should have seen, majority of them were Hindus. So, this, you know, there is this economic

10:17aspect to attack on Hindus, to pressurize them, to force them to leave the country.

10:22But also at the same time, I would like to add that this is the first time the Hindus also came

10:26together, protested against the violence which was happening to them, and they actually quoted

10:34a famous song in Bangla which says that this country does not belong to anybody's father.

10:40In a sense, we will not leave the country. That was the spirit, number one. Number two, as you

10:45asked, you know, about the approach of the interim regime. In fact, there was Prime Minister Modi

10:51also spoke to the caretaker chief, Prof. Mohammad Innoos, and he visited the Rakeshwari temple. But

11:00also at the same time, I would not say that he is not committed to protect the Hindus. The fact is

11:05that, as I said, police have left their post, you know, who will give the protection at this

11:10moment of time when the law and order mechanism completely got paralyzed due to the manner in

11:17which the government fell. But, you know, what is alarming is that we've had for the 15 years

11:31that the Awami League ruled from 2009 onwards, we again had a renewal of, you know,

11:41friendship and all that. Every year we were celebrating the Yodhas, that is war

11:53veterans of the Mukti Vahini and Indian Army would meet in Dhaka, Calcutta, Delhi,

12:02and, you know, pay tributes to all those whose lives were lost in this. And

12:11it had, there was a good, you know, renewal because during the Bangladesh Nationalist Party's

12:19regime, we had, I think, a very large presence of Pakistan's ISI there who made an entry into

12:30our northeastern region. And, you know, they converted what were classically insurgents

12:39into insurgent-cum-terrorists like the Alpha, like the Maithai, you know, undergrounds,

12:48the Naga underground. All of them were, you know, literally converted to, with a very

12:56good stock of weaponry and all being made available to them, money. And it also, in Assam,

13:08it created a movement of, you know, easing, creating conditions for illegal settlers to come.

13:18I wrote a book, you know, Assam Terrorism and the Demographic Challenge. In 2008,

13:24there were 8 districts where the demography had changed, you know. And now, I think, it's

13:3114 districts or so where the demography is, you know. But still, in this period of 2009 till

13:43June this year, the relationship was very good. That is now, I think, in a bit of,

13:51and there are reports that even the army has joined in, you know, targeting Hindus. Is that

14:00correct? And what else have you got to say on this? I would say that as you correctly mentioned

14:08that during the BNP regime between 2001 to 2006 was the worst nightmare as far as India is concerned.

14:15We saw the rise of radicalism within Bangladesh. Like, for example, the 2005 bomb blast in 63

14:22districts, simultaneous bomb blasts in 63 districts out of 64, where the JNB announced

14:28that they are present and they would like to have a government, Islamist government at that point

14:34of time. We also saw, you know, the suicide bombing in the judiciary. We also saw in 2004,

14:4210 truckloads of arms and ammunition, which was, which landed in a jetty in Chittagong.

14:47And many of the, as you rightly said, many of the Indian insurgent groups were provided

14:52shelter in Bangladesh and they were handed over only after the Aumili came to power.

14:56But having said that, I would also like to say that, you know, this entire thing of starting,

15:03you know, to honoring those people who fought the liberation war, not just from India,

15:07across the world, was a tradition which was started in 2007 and 2008 when military-backed

15:13categorism was in power. So, I would say that it is the Bangladesh army which established this

15:18particular tradition and thought that, you know, this needs to be emphasized and celebrated. And

15:23this was taken forward by, you know, by the Aumili regime, which was in power. And I completely agree

15:32with you, the relationship between India and Bangladesh was excellent. But also at the same

15:36time, I would like to say that we have, in fact, institutionalized this relationship to a very

15:42large extent. Unlike in the past, between 1999 to 2009, I would say 2008, when Moinuddin Ahmad

15:52visited India, General Moinuddin Ahmad, you really did not have any army chief visiting,

15:57Bangladesh army chief visiting India. But that situation has changed. You have now,

16:02both the armies, India and Bangladesh, are training in each other's NDC. You also have

16:08various joint exercises that have been introduced in the past 10 years. So, therefore, I'm speaking

16:13of institutionalization. So, it is no more a relationship only with the Aumili, but you also

16:19have, India also has developed relationship with the Bangladesh army. And the particular incident

16:24you are speaking in Chittagong actually is, you know, where, as per the newspaper report,

16:31one of the leaders of Jamaat-e-Islami or the worker of Jamaat-e-Islami had put a social media

16:37post against ISKCON in Bangladesh. And there was demonstration against that particular post,

16:42in which, as I said, you know, the police had left, has left that post in spite of army asking

16:48them to come and take over the position. Many are still scared of reprisal attack on them,

16:54because the government's position is that anybody who has been involved in attack in the past,

16:59action will be taken against them. And all of us, we know in the past 15 years, Aumili used the

17:05police as a political instrument. So, many of the police are also scared. So, it was much more of a

17:11law and order kind of situation, which army was trying to control, as per the media report. That

17:16is what I understand. But I don't think Bangladesh army was being an instrument to attack on the

17:24Hindus, is something which is a little difficult to believe. But then again, one is only relying

17:28on the newspaper report, one does not know the truth. But I don't think so, at this moment,

17:33they can afford to antagonize. I fully, I will know that my reaction was also the same as

17:41that it should not, cannot be. But you know, today, it's a free media. And there are fake

17:49reports also that keep coming out in media. But now, at this stage, while the Aumili has

18:01charged Mohammed Yunus and maybe I think 66 others of crimes, we don't know the exact details,

18:10but this is at least a beginning. What do you see the future as coming out as, near future?

18:19I would say that, you know, these charges and counter charges in Bangladesh's politics,

18:23if you watch it, it's not something, you know, which is new. One political party comes, then

18:29there are charges against the outgoing party. So, it is a kind of Bangladesh's political tradition.

18:35I just wish that Bangladesh need to come out of this particular tradition. Of course,

18:40the background in which this particular interim regime has come, obviously, it is a student cum

18:46people's movement. So, therefore, there is this pressure to try those people who have been

18:50involved in crime, they're calling genocide, although I don't agree with that, you know,

18:56genocide is a very different kind of terminology. You know, one should not use this particular word

19:01very, very loosely. So, therefore, I would say the future of Bangladesh looks like, you know,

19:06there has to be an election because all of us we know the interim regime, which is backed by the

19:11Bangladesh military, should be a transitional government. And the focus must be on, you know,

19:17bringing electoral reforms, which will facilitate kind of election. But this particular government

19:22has taken into its ambit, like, for example, reforming the constitution or rewriting a new

19:28constitution. And then, you know, reforming the police, reforming the judiciary, reforming the

19:34political system, I think it's too much for any interim regime to take into its ambit.

19:39And if I can give an example, if you take the example of Nepal, exactly this constitution

19:44writing of 1990, which was done by the, you know, monarchies appointed committee, we saw how it led

19:51to the underground movement of the Maoists, which insisted on the elected constituent assembly to

19:56write the constitution. And we also, coming back to Bangladesh's example, in 2007 and 2008, there

20:02are many reforms which are brought in by the Bangladesh army back to interim regime at that

20:08point of time. But once the election happened, army came to power, many of them were not passed,

20:13you know, you can't rule through ordinance, the ordinance has to be passed by the parliament to

20:19become a law. So I really do not know how far these reforms will be sustainable. But I can only

20:24say that perhaps these reforms are necessary to have at least a clean election, a clean and free

20:30and fair election. And of course, it will be up to the elected government to bring in the necessary

20:36reforms, whether they would like to have a new constitution. But also at the same time, I must

20:41say that the election needs to be inclusive. I'm saying that the moment you exclude a political

20:46party, like it happened in 2014, 18 and 24 election done by the army league, it will lead to this kind

20:53of movement, because whether it is army league, in spite of what it did, it has a support base,

20:58you know, like the BNP, you know, these are two political parties. So I really think the election

21:03needs to be inclusive, because if you require a stable government, and any stable government,

21:08there is a geographical duality of India and Bangladesh, it is an interdependent relationship.

21:13And the geography will definitely dictate the bilateral relationship between the two countries.

21:18Of course, you know, the political parties can give a kind of direction to it. But I'm sure

21:23this particular relationship will move forward, irrespective of who is in power in Dhaka.

21:29Very, very briefly, you think there was a talk about the American connection.

21:40Do you have anything to say about that?

21:43See, you know, when the government failed, of course, the only thing one can make two plus two

21:48together in social science is this, that the government, in fact, the fall of Haseena and

21:54taking over by, you know, briefly by the Bangladesh army, was welcomed by the US,

22:00it was the first country to welcome it. And the speculation is that since because, you know,

22:06this particular speculation of the Western involvement is because Muhammad Dinoos,

22:10who have been seen as a close as a person close to the Western countries, is in power. So but

22:16also at the same time, having said that, I would say that there was genuine movement,

22:21there was genuine anger against the army league in power, there was, you know, humongous corruption

22:28in this thing. And there was there was also, you know, the Digital Security Act,

22:32where you really do not have the freedom of expression, where people are scared to speak

22:37in public. So therefore, you know, in a sense, the governance was also not very great,

22:42the economy was started doing badly post COVID. So therefore, there are many other factors,

22:48which actually led, I think the major factor is that having flawed elections over and over again,

22:54and also, at the same time, being very, very dictatorial towards the opposition and towards

23:00the free expression by common people, at least you should have that forum, that space,

23:07where you can express your anger. If that is closed, obviously, you will see this kind of movement

23:11in any country. And do you think that Mr. Trump's message will have any effect?

23:24I would say that I really do not know whether Trump's message was for the domestic audience in

23:29the US. He's not even taken over yet. But anyway, he's the he's one leader who's made that. Thank

23:36you very much. Dr. Patnaik, it was, you brought out some very pertinent and important points.

23:45Thank you. All the best.

23:48Thank you, Kunal Bhatt for having me in this program. Thank you so much.

Dr. Smruti Pattanaik, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses speaks with Col Anil Bhat (retd.) on the Bangladesh transition and its implications for South Asia | SAM Conversation

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