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Mayank Chhaya speaks to Dr. Orville Schell, one of America's foremost China-Tibet scholars | SAM Conversation
South Asia Monitor
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7/5/2025
Mayank Chhaya speaks to Dr. Orville Schell, one of America's foremost China-Tibet scholars | SAM Conversation
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00:00
With the Dalai Lama reaffirming that there will be a successor to him after his death,
00:22
prospects of the historic standoff between China and the centuries-old institution
00:27
continuing well beyond his lifetime are a certainty now.
00:32
The Dalai Lama's second announcement about succession has predictably riled Beijing,
00:38
which wants to impose its own Dalai Lama.
00:40
There are now concerns that when Tenzin Gyatso, the current Dalai Lama, passes away,
00:45
there could well be two rival ones, one officially chosen by his not-for-profit trust
00:51
and the other propped up by the Chinese Communist Party.
00:54
To understand the implications of the succession battle, MCR spoke to Dr. Orwell Schell,
01:01
one of America's foremost China Tibet scholars and authors who have spent decades studying
01:06
and writing about various issues arising out of the conflict, Dr. Orwell Schell.
01:13
Welcome to Myang Chai Reports, Dr. Schell. It's always a great pleasure to have you.
01:18
Well, pleasure to be with you.
01:19
Dr. Schell, my sense of the Dalai Lama's announcement is that he is perhaps reclaiming future history
01:29
rather than yielding to the short-term strategic temptation of outwitting China
01:36
by naming a successor in his own lifetime.
01:40
What is your sense?
01:41
Well, I think it would be certainly out of normal tradition for him to name a successor
01:50
before he passes away and a reincarnation then in the traditional form has a time to take place.
01:59
So I think what he seems to be doing is to try to remove the whole decision-making process
02:08
from the hands of the Chinese Communist Party.
02:11
Having been through that once with the Panchen Lama and Cheki Naima,
02:17
the reincarnation that was chosen then disappeared,
02:21
and the Communist Party appointed their own reincarnation.
02:26
I think that's what His Holiness wishes to avoid this go-around.
02:33
But irrespective of what he has done, what is to stop Beijing from going ahead
02:38
and appointing a rival Dalai Lama anyway?
02:41
Well, I suspect Beijing will do it anyway.
02:45
And there will be probably somebody in residence in the Potala in Lhasa,
02:51
and you're going to have sort of like the two Vatican's, two popes in the Holy Roman Empire
03:00
when you had Byzantium and Constantinople in Rome.
03:04
So nonetheless, this is a way, I think, for His Holiness to assure that at least
03:11
Tibetans that are living outside of Tibet have a spiritual leader.
03:16
Is there any possibility at all that they might even do it in his lifetime,
03:22
just to be mean about that?
03:26
You mean that the Chinese Communist Party might?
03:29
Yeah, they might just guard and appoint one right away in the next maybe couple of years
03:33
or something like that.
03:35
I suspect that would be a bit presumptuous.
03:39
It's one thing for His Holiness to say that his reincarnation is preordained.
03:45
It's another thing for the Communist Party who eschews spiritual matters of all kinds
03:51
to make such a presumptuous dictum.
03:54
But, you know, I wouldn't put anything beyond the Chinese Communist Party
04:01
and particularly in the question of Tibet and Xinjiang,
04:06
which are extremely sensitive topics.
04:10
If you were Xi Jinping, how would you look at the announcement?
04:15
Was it built into their strategic thinking already?
04:19
Well, I mean, fortunately, I'm not Xi Jinping.
04:25
I think that he will see it as a great affront,
04:29
as a challenge to the sovereign power of China
04:34
to determine what happens within its sovereign territory.
04:37
And remember, it fully believes that Tibet is a sovereign part of China.
04:44
When the nationalists under Chiang Kai-shek
04:48
and then the communists under Mao Zedong drew the Chinese borders,
04:54
they drew the old Qing dynasty borders,
04:56
which included all of Tibet, all of Xinjiang, all of Mongolia,
05:00
although they lost outer Mongolia, all of Manchuria.
05:03
So it was the largest rendition of China in history.
05:09
But even though Tibet had not been fully consolidated
05:12
within the national entity, either under the nationalists
05:17
or even completely under the communists, that was the presumption.
05:22
So as the leader of Tibet,
05:25
it's a curious combination of a political leader and a spiritual leader.
05:30
China would like to imagine that it holds the reins in its hands
05:37
to determine who that person should be,
05:40
particularly not someone living in India.
05:42
Right.
05:44
Isn't that ironic that while on the one hand,
05:46
the Communist Party clearly has atheistic underpinnings,
05:50
on the other, they do recognize the,
05:52
at least the symbolic importance of having heard the Lai Lama,
05:56
which, how do they reconcile these two contradictory streams?
06:02
I think politics trumps spiritual matters.
06:07
And they don't, I mean, spiritual matters are just another element
06:11
that they have to deal with and that can be manipulated,
06:15
for better or worse, to the, to unify the, quote, motherland.
06:19
So I don't think they waste a lot of sleep over it.
06:23
There are many contradictions.
06:25
Mao Zedong himself wrote many essays on contradictions.
06:28
He loved contradictions.
06:30
And he thought that's the way history moves.
06:32
So such a contradiction as a spiritual matter and a temporal matter
06:36
isn't one I'm sure the Chinese Communist Party leaders
06:42
lose a lot of sleep over.
06:43
There are reports out of Beijing I read in the New York Times
06:49
and elsewhere, perhaps even on the BBC,
06:51
that the government is already building a narrative
06:55
where officials will go to schools and offices
06:59
essentially to build up some, drum up some support.
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