Dr. Harinder Sekhon, Distinguished Fellow, CUTS International and former Intelligence Analyst, National Security Council Secretariat, speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on the need to review India-US relations | SAM Conversation
00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor.
00:16Our topic today is the need to review India-US relations.
00:25For this, it is our pleasure to welcome Dr. Harinder Sekho, Distinguished Fellow, Katz International
00:38and a former intelligence and strategic analyst in the National Security Council Secretariat
00:57of Government of India. She has a good three decades of hard US-India study behind her.
01:11We have seen some very, ranging from unexpected to funny to ridiculous scenes since Operation
01:28Sindhoor was launched after that horrendous attack by Pakistani terrorists in Pahlgaam,
01:38Jammu and Kashmir, India. Barely three or four days later, Mr. Donald Trump announced a very
01:56major large S for Pakistan, which also included a fair number of aircraft, which of course,
02:14countries which go with the, you know, so-called, so-called, you know, condition that they are
02:26not to be used against India. Which itself is a very old joke because a lot of stuff they
02:33were given right from 1960, before 1965 onwards was used against India and much to the embarrassment
02:41of the United States. Well, we won't go into that. Another aspect that, another development that, you know,
02:51really got India's goat was, as soon as the Indian Air Force had attacked 11 military airfields of Pakistan,
03:11Mr. Trump proverbially parachuted into the picture saying, here I've, you know, got a ceasefire going.
03:25It was far from the truth because this was clarified, of course, by the Director General Military Operations
03:37of Indian Army and by other spokespersons like Mr. Sikri of the External Affairs Ministry and Colonel Sophia,
03:54Qureshi of the, and Wing Commander Singh. From time to time, this was clarified that this is not a ceasefire.
04:06Operation Sindhur is still on. Whatever is been done is a pause and it's at the specific request of the Director General Military Operations of Pakistan Army.
04:22But anyway, Mr. Donald Trump kept repeating that until, you know, the last few days also, I think he's been parroting it.
04:36That's been, you know, that's my doing, that's my doing words to that effect.
04:41What is particularly, you know, of concern to India is this largest that was granted to Pakistan just about three days or so after the attack in, terror attack in Pelga.
05:01And also a lunch for which the Pakistan Army Chief recently promoted to the rank of Field Marshal, Aseem Munir, being invited in, it was, I think, Mr. Trump was hoping to invite or try to invite,
05:29Mr. Modi also. And I think Mr. Modi was very, very correct in saying, no, sorry, I already have plans. This was at the end of the G7.
05:46First question, Dr. Seiko, how do you view the present state of India-US relations?
06:01Well, that's a tricky state of relations right now, because on the one hand, Trump has been saying even more last a few days back at the G7 that he likes Modi a lot.
06:18But there are contradictory messages coming out. And let's start with Pehel Gam. And you've already given a recap of how the IMF gave, you know, there seems to be a definite rehyphenation of India and Pakistan over the past one month.
06:39And this is something India was extremely sensitive about in the past, that we should not be clubbed together with Pakistan.
06:48And the press reports coming out of the United States, once again, you know, not just, you know, one is the victim of terrorism, and one is the perpetrator of terrorism.
07:00But the kind of statements which have been coming out of this U.S. administration do cause concern, and especially, you know, like more recently, you would have witnessed that the CENTCOM chief, General Kurilla, has the U.S. CENTCOM chief has said that Pakistan is a very important part of the U.S. calculus and is a very important U.S. alliance partner.
07:30You know, they have to quantify that they do need Pakistan for its war on terror, maybe to stabilize the Afghan border.
07:39And as you've rightly mentioned, but all the equipment, the F-16s and all which has been supplied by the U.S. is not being used for their own internal security.
07:50It has been used against India even during Sindur, Operation Sindur.
07:54So these are things which are well documented, and I do not want to take up more time.
08:03But this reset, you know, and the recent visit of Asif Munir to Washington and Trump hosting him for lunch.
08:11So the U.S. administration and the statement coming out from the White House, they've said that this is because of what is happening in the Middle East, and it is because of Iran.
08:24They want to neutralize Iran, and there were reports that Iran may, sorry, Pakistan may attack Israel and help Iran if there is any escalation in the Middle East.
08:37So that is a strategic concern.
08:40It can be a genuine concern for the Americans because of, you know, what is happening over there.
08:47But to give Asif Munir two hours for a meeting which was scheduled for one hour, and, you know, and there's no Pentagon person who was involved in the meeting, which is interesting to note.
09:03It was the U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and the Middle East advisor, Trump's Middle East advisor, Steve Witkoff.
09:12Now, these are the three gentlemen who met with Asif Munir, who was accompanied by his national security advisor, Asim Malik.
09:21So it was more a White House initiative.
09:23If I may, if I may, if I may just button for a moment, Asim Munir is the person who publicly stated that he's for, he's for Iran, all his supporters for Iran, whereas what Mr. Trump wants from him is a lot of, you know, support against, to the U.S. against Iran.
09:52Absolutely.
09:53Which also includes, I think, a lot of aircraft space, you know.
09:59True, true.
10:00And also he's been trying to negotiate an economic deal because there's no official statement which has come out so far.
10:07But, you know, people who are privy to the discussions and they're quoting unofficial sources, they say that though a lot of the discussion was about Iran and how to, you know,
10:22both sides said that they're looking for a peaceful solution and that is why Trump has decided to give Iran another fortnight, 15 days to come to the negotiating table and negotiate the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal.
10:35But let's see if Pakistan would genuinely play a sincere role in resolving the issue, given their past history, not just Asif Munir saying that, you know, they are all for Iran.
10:49When it comes to India, he has repeated that oft-quoted statement of, you know, Kashmir is the jugular vein.
11:00And, you know, and that is why they're not going to let go.
11:05And this is something which has been driven home.
11:07The U.S. knows that Pakistan is, they've got things well documented, that Pakistan has been perpetrating terrorism across the border.
11:17They are the architects of cross-border terrorism and India has suffered because of that.
11:24But somehow they seem this reset has not gone down too well and we need to watch out for the signs.
11:31And the other worrisome aspect is that the recent developments in U.S.-India relations, you know, the last decade or so, what we've noticed is it is the defense partnership, which has seen a tremendous upping in between India and the United States.
11:50We have signed the foundational agreements.
11:52We have bought defense equipment from the United States through the foreign military sales route.
11:59Then we've also, you know, the U.S.-India looks at joint production, co-production.
12:09And the ISET was signed during Biden's administration, you know, for critical and emerging technologies and defense and AI and computing.
12:22And Trump, soon after he assumed office, gave it a different nomenclature called trust.
12:30So where is the trust between India and the United States today when defense is the most important aspect of U.S.-India relations?
12:40So this is something which interlocutors would need to take up very seriously when they speak with the United States, that, you know, on the one hand, you are strengthening and coming out with statements which are supporting Pakistan.
12:57And you're kind of overlooking a lot, actually emboldening Pakistan to become even to adopt a tougher stand against India.
13:07And then you expect India to buy more weapons and equipment from you.
13:12So there is, you know, it's not a very comfortable sign and it's very contradictory what the United States is doing.
13:23The other thing I would like to add is Trump has been very provocative in his statements, a little less so about concerning India, but his actions speak otherwise.
13:35But when it comes to even Israel, I mean, he's literally, it was that he's going to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities and Israel would get the required missiles to attack the Iranian nuclear stockpile, which is buried deep in the mountains.
13:54And now suddenly he's drawn back a little bit.
13:57So I think, and also when it comes to Ukraine and Russia, he makes very high sounding statements without maybe thinking it through.
14:08And then his advisors probably get into the act later on and tell him that there are certain steps and he realizes the implications of his statement later on.
14:18So now he has said that, okay, I give you a fortnight, but yesterday it was that he was, he wanted an unconditional surrender from Iran and the Iranians have rejected that.
14:31So Trump, I think, has not been very statesmanlike in his conduct of foreign policy, more so in his second term, because he has had to then withdraw and take a back seat, be it in the nuclear, sorry, be it with the Ukraine and Russia, because Putin, he thought that he would get, you know, he made statements that he would resolve the Ukraine conflict in one day.
14:58And Putin has dug in his heels, we see that the fighting has intensified, and Trump has now shifted his attention to what is happening between Iran and Israel.
15:12And here was a president who said that we would have no involvement, there would be no U.S. involvement in foreign wars.
15:19Now, can the U.S. withdraw completely, or would it step in to safeguard its own global interests, remains to be seen?
15:29Can he be a dealmaker or a peacemaker?
15:32Because at the end of the day, I think he's aspiring to get the Nobel Peace Prize.
15:38So what is Trump's game?
15:40He himself has said that I cannot say, I cannot predict what I will do tomorrow.
15:46He said this just a few days back when he left the G7 summit.
15:51So it's all up in the air.
15:53But when it comes to India, I think the prime minister has done well to reach out.
15:59You know, we are moving ahead with the Europeans for quite some time.
16:03Maybe you want to come in and tell.
16:05What is disturbing is that while you are trying to predict yourself as a peacemaker, what you are actually amounting to is literally the opposite, a war monger.
16:21I mean, as far as India is concerned with Pakistan, he has just armed them.
16:26So he says that the 1.5 billion IMF loan which has been given is actually for Pakistan's infrastructure development.
16:42But this is all humbug.
16:43We know that even in the past, all this money has been, you know, rerouted to the United States.
16:51For seven decades, for seven decades, Pakistan has never got what it needed as a growing country.
16:58A lot of their, you know, whatever they got has been, you know, spent on waging war against India.
17:08I think the money which comes in the form of aid goes back to the U.S. military industrial complex and comes back in the form of weapons.
17:16So that's exactly what has been happening.
17:19And for India, I think we've eventually, because we are still quite a bit dependent on the Russians.
17:26But ever since the Ukraine war, we have lessened our dependence because the Russians are no longer able to meet our defense needs.
17:35But certain critical things like the nuclear submarines and all, it's only the Russians who are going to give them to us, not the Americans.
17:42So having lessened our dependence on the Russians who have their own constraints.
17:48I think we've been looking more towards Europe.
17:51We've been doing more with France and even with Germany.
17:55And this recent visit to, you know, the prime minister's visit to Zagreb last week, you know, to Cyprus and Croatia.
18:09I think this engagement with the smaller states and how, you know, we are looking because Croatia, these are, you know, along the Adriatic Sea and plays a great role in maritime security.
18:25And as India builds to get more involved in IMEK, the India Middle East Economic Corridor.
18:32I think these two visits to Cyprus and Croatia are very, very significant.
18:39And coming to maritime security, I think India's Navy has been playing a remarkable role, not just in the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific.
18:50You've said it, Dr. Sekpo, because it has placed India in a pivotal role.
18:58Sure.
19:00You know, you had the Quad, which is there, which has been there for some time.
19:05But it never really got to grips with one of the most serious problems in the, you know, what was the Asia-Pacific and what is now considered the India, Indo-Pacific region, which is, which, you know, is very closely in the Indian Ocean region.
19:27It is the amount of mucking around that China has been doing.
19:33Sure.
19:33Well, if there's, and this, it's now been acknowledged by, well, the Quad countries individually also have been exercising with Indian Navy.
19:50But then so many other countries have, you know, you know, requested for exercising with the Indian Navy and have gone to do so.
20:03You know, and this all in the Indian Ocean, Indo-Pacific Ocean regions.
20:11And which, which, which all other, all these countries, they consider Indian Navy a very significant, you know, force with a very, very wide presence, wide reach.
20:24You're absolutely right, you know, because look at the number of exercises, which have multiplied, it was not just the Quad countries, we are doing it with Vietnam, with, you know, the other smaller countries, we've done joint exercises with Indonesia.
20:40And we've set up, you know, you know, strengthened our infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific, in the Indian Ocean region.
20:50And now I think with IMEC, if it ever takes off, we are looking for an alternative to the Hormuz Strait.
20:59I think it could be a very significant development as far as India's maritime outreach is concerned.
21:05And, you know, the Sagar Mala and all, I mean, and then these are not India's aggressive, aggressive posturing, because we have done a lot of work in, during, you know, it started off with, in 2004, when we rushed aid during the tsunami.
21:24Tsunami is one very, very, very great example of, you know, of countries as far as Indonesia reaching out to us and, and are reaching there and giving very, a lot of meaningful assistance, you know.
21:41And after that, during COVID also, 2019, when we rushed.
21:45So, you know, so I think India has a very positive image because of the kind of foreign policy we are conducting.
21:58And when it comes to the U.S., I think there is a need for reassessment.
22:04We need to have a very proper, it has to be thought through very properly.
22:11And we have to have an end game that we have to reduce our dependence on the U.S.
22:17Trump had announced in Modi when that he's going to give us the F-35.
22:22But we need to really look at, you know, we...
22:26We don't need the F-35.
22:27We don't need the F-35.
22:30But we need to, you know, the air chief has been talking very openly about it.
22:35We really need to look at, if France is not able to fulfill our entire need, we need to go to the Eurofighter, you know, the European consortium.
22:45We need to step up our own domestic production, which will take time because we talk more about it.
22:53But we really need to now seriously reconsider becoming self-sufficient in meeting our defense requirements.
23:01Because we have seen that till you are not self-sufficient and you are not strong independently, the other countries, you cannot depend upon them.
23:11No, no. For long it has been clear that India must be prepared to go it alone as far as its own, you know, needs of weaponry are concerned for dealing with not one but two enemies.
23:30True, true.
23:31China being number one, Pakistan being number two.
23:35But a lot of, you know, keeping us busy is done by China through Pakistan.
23:46Absolutely, because even now they have announced that they are going to supply them with 40 J-35s.
23:52China has just announced it there in today's news.
23:57And on the other hand, they want to strengthen this, you know, they want to have peace talks with us and they want to talk about the border issue without really coming to the, you know, they want to keep negotiating and frustrating India.
24:11So we really need to, you know, the way we are going in for our infrastructure development in JLK, we've done tremendous work over there.
24:18No doubt.
24:19And similarly, I think we really need to devise a policy where we have a public private partnership and select a few niche platforms for development.
24:34And I think the drones, we've, our drones have shown, I mean, they've worked very well during…
24:43It's been true.
24:46It has been true.
24:47So I think…
24:49Because we've taken pains to, you know, reach a level of self-sufficiency in drones and well, so far so good.
25:03But we shouldn't be at all complacent about it because this is one item which we must keep producing.
25:10We'll require it.
25:12We'll require it.
25:13As I said, Sindhuur is not over.
25:19It is not over.
25:21There are thousands of terrorists still about, up and about in Pakistan.
25:26And there's still a number of their camps and they are not going to stop, you know, export of terreira as they've been doing for almost three decades now.
25:38Absolutely.
25:39They're not going to stop.
25:41And I think we need to be very careful about the technological innovation and changes because it's not Pakistan.
25:48They get armed by Turkey as we've seen by China and China can come up with new technology very soon because they have been working at it for the last 30, 35 years.
26:01I mean, they started this whole system of reverse engineering, buying from the Americans and reverse engineering while we only have talked about it.
26:10Mind you, during Sindhuur, it's the Chinese, a lot of Chinese equipment did not fare very well at all.
26:23Yes, I agree with you, but they might try to overcome these lapses.
26:27Of course, of course.
26:28We also need to be one step ahead and we need to recalibrate our response for the next ongoing steps in Operation Sindhuur.
26:38So I think we need to be and I think we have got a lot of inherent strengths, but we need to nurture the people who are working on these key projects.
26:49I think this is what the government needs to adopt this policy of setting up the centers of excellence and nurturing the scientists and the technical people who are working on these projects.
27:03We need to take care of their housing and, you know, it's not just people at the top levels, but, you know, you have to set up proper housing complexes and all and set up these.
27:15Absolutely.
27:16In fact, the irony here is the sad irony here is that in the past, there have been, first of all, scientists, particularly in the, you know, field of missiles and space satellites, we've done tremendously well, despite all kinds of sanctions that we've been facing over the, you know, number of decades.
27:41But it's also disturbing that, you know, there have been suicides and there's been frustration amongst this community who have been doing a very, very good, effective job silently, you know, they're not out of the ones who are sung about.
28:06So, I agree with you and a lot of them, I mean, have actually, I mean, look at the kind of brain drain, I mean, the amount of people from our IITs who've gone to the US, we really need to make things more attractive.
28:20And now, fortunately, a lot of Indian techies are coming back to Bangalore and Hyderabad has got a very good ecosystem for defense small industries.
28:32So, those are the kind of places which we really should develop and encourage this public private partnership and set up innovation.
28:40I mean, the innovation hubs are there, we need to multiply and upgrade the skills, help people upgrade their skills and work without innovations and constraints.
28:53One good news, very recent good news is that Dassault has contracted a joint venture with the Tatas to make the Rafale fuselage.
29:06Right.
29:07And with the Ambani's, Anil Ambani's group to make the Falcon, the Falcon jet, which they are aiming to make 2000 of them.
29:20And not only for, you know, to become a sport hub, but for even selling.
29:27Right.
29:29So, I think India is doing well, we are already looking at alternatives to the United States, that too much of dependence on the United States in defense is not going to be a long term solution.
29:41Absolutely.
29:42And we are working with European partners and the trade deal because, you know, they're very mercurial and Trump looks at profits.
29:52So, our Minister of Commerce is trying to work out a trade deal, which is a good thing.
29:58We cannot afford to have the United States turn completely against us and to keep them engaged.
30:04I think in trade, we have to give some and take some and keep them happy and that's an important relationship.
30:12It's an important partnership.
30:13No, keep them happy and in the process, not at a very negative cost to ourselves.
30:21No, but at the same time, we need to be very firm on our bottom line.
30:26Exactly.
30:27Exactly.
30:28This is still where you can push us and, you know, beyond that, it's not going to happen.
30:34And especially now, Trump wanting to take credit for having negotiated this ceasefire between India and Pakistan.
30:41And Asif Munir parroting the whole thing, thanking Trump for having thought about the ceasefire.
30:48That's a behavior of the absurd.
30:50But I think there is no real trust between Pakistan and the United States either.
30:56Each one is trying to take advantage of the current situation and it will continue like this.
31:02But India has done well.
31:05We've not really reacted openly.
31:07There's been no official statement, which is good.
31:09We need to ignore a lot, but at the same time, do our own introspection and have alternatives in place and devise strategies.
31:19Anything you'd like to add before we've covered a lot of ground?
31:29I think that's about it.
31:31Unless, of course, there was something else which you felt that…
31:34No, I think…
31:36Maybe one little parting shot.
31:39You know, we also, while we're looking at Europe, we, for technology and otherwise, we really need to look towards the East, East Asia.
31:51And with Taiwan, we are doing, you know, we're doing a little bit of work in electronics and stuff.
31:59But Japan and India, we really need to strengthen this relationship further and not let the momentum go.
32:06Because during Shinzo Abe's time, you know, Shinzo Abe and Prime Minister Modi had a great rapport.
32:12Yes, yes.
32:13And the Japanese are somehow inundated with their own domestic problems and stuff.
32:18But we really need to continue to engage with them because they themselves feel threatened by China and they have certain concerns about their military alliance with the United States.
32:31So, we have certain comments.
32:33No doubt.
32:34No doubt.
32:35And we've had a very good equation with them, you know, despite the fact that they were quite shocked when we went in for our nuclear test.
32:44Yes.
32:45But even in that tense period, our maritime cooperation never flagged at all.
32:53It continued in full steam.
32:56Right, right.
32:57And in my time, they take us very seriously, you know.
33:02You know, so we need to, with or without the United States, bilaterally with the Quad partners, with New Zealand, which is not strictly speaking a Quad partner.
33:13But their Prime Minister was here recently for the Argentina dialogue.
33:18And they're looking to do more with India and also with Australia.
33:22Because AUKUS, I think again, Trump is going to review AUKUS.
33:27So, you know, which is something which works to the advantage of India.
33:34The more Trump ruffles other people's feathers, I think we need to do bilaterally.
33:40So that's about it.
33:41As far as, as far as Mr. Trump is concerned, I can only use the, you know, popular sentence in media.
33:49It remains to be seen.
33:51And otherwise, thank you, Dr. Seko, for covering a lot of ground.
34:01And thank you so much for having me on your show, Colonel Pat.
