Ashok Sajjanhar, former Indian ambassador speaks with Col Anil Bhat (retd.) on Quad and its future | SAM Conversation - video Dailymotion

South Asia Monitor

Ashok Sajjanhar, former Indian ambassador speaks with Col Anil Bhat (retd.) on Quad and its future | SAM Conversation

Transcript

00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor. It is our pleasure to

00:15welcome today Mr. Ashok Sajanar, Ambassador to three countries and having served in seven

00:26other countries apart from India, the Foreign Office in India itself and has been looking

00:35at very significant and important foreign affairs related to India for some time now.

00:49I think I'll begin with just remembering that when we had the second nuclear test in 98,

01:00our relations with Japan got very tense. But the one activity which continued without any kind of

01:10you know, hesitation was maritime exercises or meetings of both the Indian Navy and Japanese

01:20Navy and the Coast Guards. Those did not stop at all. And in an interview with Mr. George Fernandes

01:29then Defense Minister gave, where he expressed that he can genuinely understand the concerns of

01:40Japan because of our nuclear test, because that's the only country which has been a victim of this.

01:46But in that interview, Mr. Fernandes clearly spelt out China as India's enemy number one

01:58in no uncertain terms. Second point is that Mr. Shinzo Abe, when just after he began his

02:09second term in 2012, in an op-ed which he wrote, reportedly brought out that, you know,

02:21the South China Sea is like Lake Baiqing for China. They consider it the personal lake and

02:31I think what we need is a diamond. And the diamond that he stated was of four countries,

02:41India, US, Japan and Australia. And these four countries have been exercising under the

02:50exercise Malabar for years now. But as far as the court is concerned, this is the fourth meeting

02:59held at Wilmington. It was supposed to be held in India, but because of Mr. Biden's

03:06inability to attend, it was, you know, changed to Wilmington, Delaware.

03:13And what has emerged from it is that the coast guards of all, you know, four countries will

03:21start meeting actively. My only opening comment is I think that's not enough because China's

03:30illegal, aggressive and snooping activities in the South China Sea have, you know, been increasing.

03:40And in 2024, they have reached a fairly, you know, annoying level to four countries, mainly

03:53Philippines, Vietnam, Japan and Manila. Mr. Sajanar, I request you to,

04:07there are three questions that I have, but any opening remarks that you have?

04:16Well, thank you very much, Colonel Bhatt. Thank you for the invitation to join you on this video

04:25conversation. And I'm delighted to be here. And I think the subject that you have chosen is a

04:31very important one, because we have seen that this gathering of four countries,

04:39it initially started, you know, today in 2024, we are celebrating the 20 years of that. It started

04:49in the wake of the tsunami in December of 2004, when all these countries impromptu got together

04:57to basically provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to all the countries that

05:03had been affected by it. So, we are really marking 20 years of that. But after that, we had,

05:09you know, you have referred to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan. So, when he had come to India

05:16in 2007, and he was addressing the joint session of the Indian Parliament, then he had referred to

05:24the confluence of the two seas, that is Indian and Pacific Ocean that there was a synergistic

05:32sort of, you know, meeting between these two bodies of waters. And, you know, getting them

05:39separated was artificial. And, you know, we should again start looking at looking at both

05:46of these oceans as one continuous body of water as it has been for millennia before that, before

05:55the colonization of the countries in the region and before the arrival of the Europeans, that is

06:01what happened. So, that is what led to the first meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.

06:08But then we know what happened as far as Mr. Kevin Rudd of Australia, he came to power in

06:15Canberra, and he was pressured upon by China not to continue with this because China thought that

06:23this grouping was an anti-China body. So, it went into a limbo, it went on a back burner.

06:32And then in 2017, we had in November 2017, on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Manila,

06:41Philippines, President Trump proposed the revival of the Quad. And that is when the new incarnation

06:52of the Quad really started. So, for the first few years, as I am sure your viewers would be aware,

07:00many of them would be aware that the meetings really took place at the level of officials,

07:07senior officials, or vice ministers. Till about 2019, after about two years, the first meeting of

07:18the foreign ministers took place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September of 2019.

07:24So, that was the first ministerial meeting. But then, since it was not a standalone meeting,

07:30it was on the sidelines of the UNGA. So, nothing much was really done. And the first

07:37regular ministerial meeting took place, if my memory serves me correctly, on the 6th of October

07:44in 2020 in Tokyo. Now, I'm sure your viewers would be aware that that was the thick of COVID.

07:55And so, the fact that all the four ministers, or rather three ministers from India, US,

08:01and Australia decided to make this journey to Tokyo during the most severe time of the COVID,

08:14that means it was their commitment and determination to take this partnership forward.

08:19And I recall that the foreign minister of Australia, when she went back from Tokyo after

08:28the meeting, she had to be quarantined for two weeks because that is what the protocol was

08:35after COVID that if you're traveling out, you have to come back. And she quarantined herself.

08:40So, this is just to demonstrate that these countries were very committed as far as

08:48taking the Quad initiative forward. But I think we really the upgradation both in terms of level,

08:56as well as in terms of agenda activity, we were able to see once President Biden took office

09:03in January of 2021. He in fact, hit the ground running. There were some doubts that, you know,

09:10when Mr. Trump had come to office in 2017, he had done away with many of the initiatives

09:17that President Barack Obama had taken, like the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement,

09:22like the Paris Accord on climate change, like the Iran nuclear deal, etc. So, it was thought

09:30that maybe President Biden also since the revival of Quad in 2017 was a Trump initiative,

09:37that he also might put it to the side. But President Biden behaved in a very

09:44statesmanlike manner. He not only adopted the Quad as his own initiative, but he raised it

09:54many rungs higher. So, he took office in January of 2021. And in March of 2021, within less than

10:02two months, he had the first virtual summit amongst the four leaders of the Quad countries.

10:09And then he had the first in-person meeting in September that year in Washington DC.

10:17You know, just to give you the timeline of that, the second in-person summit took place in Tokyo,

10:25in Japan. There was a virtual summit that took place just after Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine.

10:35The rationale, the reason for that was, because Mr. Biden wanted to send out a message that

10:42although the attention of the United States might be taken up, might be diverted towards the

10:49conflict that has, you know, quite unexpectedly appeared in Europe, that is between Russia and

10:58Ukraine, but still the United States continued to be committed towards the, towards taking the

11:08Quad forward. So, we had the second summit, in-person summit in Tokyo, May 22. The third

11:16in-person summit in Hiroshima, also in Japan, because it was to be held in Sydney. But at the

11:23last minute, Mr. Biden was not able to go to Sydney. So, he was in Hiroshima for a G7 summit.

11:33So, it was decided by the leaders to have the third Quad summit, in-person summit in

11:41Hiroshima. That took place last year in May. Now, this year, it was the turn of India,

11:47but it became clear, as you said, that Mr. Biden, because of his other commitments

11:53and engagements with respect to the elections, he would not be able to travel to India.

12:00So, the United States requested India to give up its turn and provide it to the United States,

12:07and that was done. And on the 21st, then we had the fourth in-person summit. Now, very quickly,

12:14if I may also add, Colonel Bhatt, with your permission, that the raison d'etre of all these

12:23four countries coming together was the expansionist policies of China. Now, China might not be

12:32mentioned by name in so many words, but there are all these very many references to China,

12:39right from the first summit leaders declaration in 2021 and all through, because what are they

12:48talking about? What is the basic fundamental premise on which all these declarations are based?

12:56Number one, that there should be a free and open Indo-Pacific, particularly as far as the South

13:03China Sea is concerned. Number two, free, open, as our Prime Minister said that it should be free,

13:10open, it should be inclusive and prosperous. Number two, there should be freedom of navigation,

13:17because these are global commons. These are common waters, particularly South China Sea,

13:25East China Sea, Taiwan Straits, etc. These are global commons. So, there should be freedom of

13:32navigation and freedom of overflights. Now, China has been marked a 9-9 in the South China Sea,

13:43thereby claiming 90% of the area of South China Sea. Now, South China Sea is 3.9 million square

13:53kilometers. And China wants all of that, basically, because it is very rich in oil,

14:01it is very rich in gas, it is very rich in fisheries, it is very rich in minerals. So,

14:08it wants all that. And also strategically, it wants to control this so that its access,

14:16because it gets all its energy from the Middle East. So, there are all these choke points,

14:23whether it is the Malacca Straits or the Sunda and the Lombok Straits, that it will be able to

14:30control those areas or at least get near those areas. Its first island chain, it would not be

14:39inhibited by that. So, right from the beginning, in the Quad, discussions have been on ensuring

14:48maritime domain awareness, that is a very important element. And the countries have

14:55been expressing very serious concern at the fact that there are very dangerous maneuvers that are

15:06taking place in the South China Sea, because against the vessels of Vietnam, of Philippines,

15:13of Malaysia, Chinese vessels have been carrying out these dangerous maneuvers against them.

15:18Also, they have been occupying these islands, which belong to other countries, whether it is

15:26the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, Scarborough Shoal, Mischief Atoll, all of these, they belong

15:34to other countries under the UN Convention on Law of the Sea. And the last point that I would

15:40like to make is that it is creating artificial islands in that area and it is militarizing them.

15:48So, the Quad basically is standing against all these activities of China.

15:55Thank you, Mr. Sajjanath. Some very important points which you brought out.

16:00Is this creation of violence is a very alarming, you know, they've converted coral reefs,

16:09they've filled up coral reefs with powder coral or something like that. Spratly, Parcel, three of

16:17them at least have been heavily militarized, three out of a number of them, which have been created.

16:24And, you know, at will, entering any territory's waters and illegal fishing is one of them.

16:42The PLA Navy has its own vessels, you know, disguised. They're part of the PLA Navy.

16:52They don't look like a naval vessel, they look like fishing vessels, but they're fairly well

16:59armed, you know, not overtly. They do a lot of illegal fishing and they go and deposit their

17:09catches in motherships, which are like small mobile islands. Then the last serious incursion

17:23which they made against the Philippines was of 200 ships from March 21 till November 22.

17:36This was a very major crisis. And it's a kind of, which in the Hindi slang we can refer to as

17:47Dadagiri, you know, it's absolute. China's PLA Navy is a great nuisance.

18:02And out of these four countries, it's the one which, out of the four countries which are part

18:10of the Quad, them and the four countries which are being affected, it's the only one which has had

18:20physical, you know, confrontation with PLA troops, so far of the army only, PLA army,

18:30is India. The last was in 2020, where we completed over 50 years of not firing at each other as

18:44China very, very pressed us very hard to do so from 1967 onwards, when we had some skirmishes in

18:52Sikkim. And even here, they've been arming themselves with, you know, they have firearms,

19:03but there is a hesitancy of the PLA army or navy personnel to actually get involved in

19:14firefights, which got proved in 1967. So, a lot of their aggressive activity is being done with

19:23medieval weapons, even today, still. I mean, that's just one aspect, but the more,

19:33you know, serious aspect is that they are entering wherever,

19:37they, you know, they literally, like Mr. Shinzo Abe, you know, treating it as their own lake.

19:45With all that, you brought out, Mr. Sajjada, you know, don't you think that the Quad should

19:57continue and continue with your comments on this, please?

20:06Yeah, you know, just a couple of comments on what you have said, I think very valid points,

20:11basically, you know, when the militarization has been happening, number one, Mr. Xi Jinping,

20:17when he had gone to Washington and met Obama in 2015, then he had committed to Obama that he's

20:26not going to militarize these islands. But surreptitiously, he's been doing that. And then,

20:33when they have been caught, and they have been charged with that, they have said that

20:38it is for defensive purposes. Now, defense against whom? Because they don't face any

20:43threat from anyone whatsoever. Number two, as I'm sure all your viewers, many of your viewers are

20:50aware that China was taken to the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague in 2013,

20:57for its nine-dash line for its that, you know, as you put it very rightly, that China wants to

21:06treat the South China Sea as its own personal pond of water. And so that is how they have put

21:13this nine-dash line that anyone who wants to come into that, you have to seek our permission, etc.

21:20And all the islands and all the properties line up with the Permanent Court of Arbitration.

21:25The islands and all the properties lying within it, they all belong to China. Now, this case was

21:30taken by Philippines to the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and the Permanent Court of Arbitration

21:36in July 2016, completely rejected China's claim. But that notwithstanding, although it says that

21:44it's a very, you know, it observes all international laws and all international norms,

21:51but it did not obey this particular decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration. Now, to come

21:58to your point, you know, there have been some doubts, some question marks that have been raised,

22:03whether the Quad will continue because two things, one is we are, Mr. Biden will not be

22:14the President of the United States beyond January of 2021. So whether the new president,

22:21if it is Mr. Trump, would he like to take it forward? If it is Kamala Harris, would she like

22:26to give so much of energy and so much of commitment as President Biden has shown?

22:34And secondly, Mr. Kishida will also not be there. And definitely the detractors of the Quad like

22:41China, Russia, etc., they would want that, you know, the Quad should be sidelined. But I think

22:48there are structural reasons for the continuation of Quad. It has grown from strength to strength,

22:55meaning just looking at the number of summit meetings that have taken place, Colonel Bhatt,

23:03over the last three, three and a half years, six meetings, summit at the summit level,

23:10I think it is not only very remarkable, but it is unheard of. So I think the commitment of it

23:17is it doesn't really depend upon individuals or personalities. And I'm quite confident that

23:25the success that we have observed as far as Quad in terms of expansion of its scope,

23:32in terms of expansion of its activities, you know, in the first summit, it started with the

23:40critical and emerging technologies, climate change and the COVID-19 vaccines. But today,

23:47it has expanded so much, whether it is infrastructure, it is connectivity, it is

23:54maritime domain awareness. So far, it was in the Pacific, now it is to be expanded to the

24:00Indian Ocean. As you said, also, the coast guards are going to carry out these activities.

24:07There is so much on education, on healthcare, on cyber security, on so many fellowships that

24:15are being provided. So the scope has increased many fold. There are six summit meetings,

24:23there are eight times that the foreign ministers have met. And now these leaders decided that the

24:29commerce ministers should also meet. So I think that there is a momentum as far as the Quad is

24:37concerned. And I don't have the slightest doubt that it will continue to not only it will continue,

24:45but it will continue to grow, expand, flourish and prosper.

24:51Thank you, Mr. Sajanan. I think just as well, just as well, because in August 23,

24:58China expanded its maritime map, so to speak, which claimed almost the entire South China Sea.

25:10So what Mr. Abe said then, they were actually now proving on the ground. And provocative naval

25:19and air patrolling has increased and it has reached a bit of a crescendo in 24.

25:27In 2024. So it's all the better that the Quad not just continues, but gets strengthened

25:41and I think becomes a little more assertive militarily. Militarily, they are already pretty

25:52well, you know, they've exercised together for years. So there's, you know, good interoperability

26:02between the four countries now, because China can understand the language of getting kicked

26:10physically. Yeah, you're right. I think it is, it understands the language of pressure,

26:16understands the language of force. Absolutely, because nothing, no amount of, you know,

26:21persuasion works with it. Absolutely. So it's time that they are given a jolt or two, you know,

26:33and we own, why the Indian Navy by itself is, you know, it's quite, you know, it can do a lot.

26:46It's a professional force. It's a professional force and very well equipped and very well

26:51experienced. But if you permit Colonel Bhatt, because you know, I think we are running short

26:57of time. Yeah, what I would like to say here is that, you know, not under the rubric of the Quad,

27:07but on a parallel stream, we have the Malabar exercises. And the Malabar exercises are also

27:14being conducted between India and the United States since 1990s. And then Japan came on board

27:22in 2014. We have an exercise with Japan. Japan also, but under the Quad, the four countries,

27:29and Australia was also included more recently, I think in 2019 or 2020. So we have this parallel

27:37exercise. The second point is that as far as, you know, the military aspect of this is concerned,

27:46real hard security, the countries have formed what is called the AUKUS, Australia, UK, US,

27:53and sort of, you know, getting nuclear submarines and nuclear power, military power to Australia.

28:01The reason why this Quad is being kept like this is because the countries in ASEAN,

28:08they don't want to take sides. They don't want that the whole area should get militarized. And

28:14they are forced to take sides between the United States and China. Because the United States,

28:21they consider to be the big security provider. But as far as China is concerned, China is the

28:27biggest economic partner, whether it is trade or it is investment. It is China, which is,

28:36you know, is the number one partner, economic partner for them. So they don't want to take

28:42sides, because if they move towards the United States, then of course, they will face the

28:47pressure from China. And we have seen that also that, you know, China will stop investments,

28:53China will stop trade, and that will be very detrimental for the interests of these ASEAN

28:59countries. And that is why Prime Minister Modi has said that the Quad is a force for global good.

29:07We are providing these common goods to the countries of the region, so that their dependence

29:17on China comes down, their dependence on China decreases, and they are able to take independent

29:26decisions, free decisions as we go forward. And that is why I think we are not focusing on so

29:32much of militarisation, except for the maritime domain awareness, focusing on illegal fishing,

29:41unidentified fishing. And of course, on technology, there is a big emphasis,

29:48semiconductor supply chains, green technology, all these are being covered under the Quad.

29:55Thank you, Mr. Sajjanar. There's more that we can dwell on, and it's a very important subject.

30:05I think we'll end here, but with still a refrain that there at some stage, you know,

30:13I think the way the Chinese PLA Navy has been behaving, not a kick or two, may not be it,

30:22you know, may just do them some good, and all of us a lot of good. Thank you very much, Mr. Sajjanar.

30:32All the best. Thank you very much. It's a pleasure to be with you on this platform.

30:37And I hope your viewers and listeners find this discussion interesting and useful.

30:44Thank you. All the very best to you.

Ashok Sajjanhar, former Indian ambassador speaks with Col Anil Bhat (retd.) on Quad and its future | SAM Conversation

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