Dr. Udai Bhanu Singh, former Senior Research Associate, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses speaks with Col Anil Bhat (retd.) on changes in Myanmar affecting India | SAM Conversation - video Dailymotion

South Asia Monitor

Dr. Udai Bhanu Singh, former Senior Research Associate, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses speaks with Col Anil Bhat (retd.) on changes in Myanmar affecting India | SAM Conversation

Transcript

00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor. Our discussion today is

00:16changes in Myanmar affecting India. The discussion for this is Dr. Uday Bhanu Singh, a former

00:29senior research associate of the Manohar Parrikar Research and Analysis, Manohar Parrikar Institute

00:39for Defense and Strategic Studies, Manohar Parrikar IDSA. He has been looking at Myanmar

00:51in the southeast for very long. It is now going to be within a few days, four years

01:04since the military junta in Myanmar had a coup, that is on the 1st of February,

01:12four years ago, on the 1st of February this year, it will be four years since the coup.

01:24A lot has happened since then. We have the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which is a combo of the

01:36Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the ANG, National Liberation Army.

01:50They have been able to gain quite a bit of ground.

01:55In 2023 October, almost 10,000 of them were responsible for at least 100

02:12posts of the military posts of the junta being defeated and the personnel fleeing away

02:24by leaving the arms and ammunition.

02:28Although the offensive against the junta has been, it's been given the name Operation 1027.

02:38After 27 October 23, it's alleged to be supported by China. However, its successes so far are

02:52limited. Dr. Udayanand Bhanusingh, I request you to bring us up to date with

03:00whatever has happened with particular reference to how it's going to affect India.

03:09Thank you Colonel Bhatt. It's a pleasure to be called for this program again,

03:15South Asia Monitor. It's always interesting to watch India's neighbourhood develop.

03:28Myanmar for us occupies a very important position strategically. It is at the tri-junction

03:36and its importance in a geopolitical manner is immense for India. We need to see

03:44where Myanmar is headed and where it has been up till now. As you very rightly said that on

03:53the 1st of February, they'll be completing four years after the coup, it will be the fourth

04:01anniversary of the coup. And that is a very significant point because a few years back,

04:10we were building scenarios of what would happen to Myanmar in the coming years.

04:17And now it seems all the scenarios are there now, whether it is Myanmar wanting to,

04:28the junta continuing in power or the junta wanting to hold elections. So, in fact,

04:38two of the scenarios seem to be unfolding together. So, at the moment, we find that

04:47the military holds one-third of Myanmar territory and two-third of the population is under control of

04:55the Myanmar army. And the regime's finances at this point are very low. They are economically

05:05in a very bad situation at the moment. Opposition forces now control two of the 14

05:14military regional commands. This is a very significant development because this kind of

05:21thing hadn't happened before. According to the NUG, which is the opposition government,

05:30they control 95 of the 330 townships of Myanmar, while the SAC, the military junta,

05:42has effective control of only 161 townships. So, the control of the military junta is

05:53slipping out of them. The townships, the area, the territory, they are losing to the PDFs and

06:04the ethnic armed groups. The Arakan army in the Rakhine state controls 15 of the 17 townships.

06:16Now, that means almost full control of the western state of Rakhine is being controlled

06:24by the Arakan army. The Rakhine state borders Bangladesh and this is also a cause of concern

06:34for Bangladesh as well. At the moment, Arakan army is controlling all this area and they are

06:43very close to Sitwe port. So, they are surrounding Sitwe port and their armies,

06:52the Arakan army is also near the borders of Chokfu. The Chokfu port is also within their reach.

07:02So, the Arakan army has now also crossed into the Ayyarwadi state.

07:09So, they are into the Bamar heartland. That means, now they are entering a totally

07:16different territory where the Bamars are the majority. That area also is being transgressed,

07:27is being taken over by the Arakan army and the opposition groups.

07:34The same is the story developing in the other states. In Kachin, in the north,

07:42the Kachin independence army has taken over the town of Mansi and the KIA is now controlling

07:53almost half of the Kachin state. For us, Chin state is important and the Chin opposition

08:06forces control almost the entire state, which borders India and Bangladesh. Almost 85% of the

08:14state is being controlled by the opposition forces, even though they may be different

08:23opposition groups, but they control 85% of the Chin state. So, the point that I am trying to

08:32make is that the military is facing problems in various parts in different states and it is losing

08:42territorial control in these areas. Now, the military was considered one of the strongest

09:03militaries in Southeast Asia. It had a large manpower and good equipment. In fact, India had

09:14also recently given a submarine to the Myanmar Navy. But the military now is a depleted military.

09:27It is facing a lot of defections and there are a lot of surrenders from the officers

09:38at the higher levels also and of course at the lower levels also. So, it is the ethnic

09:46armed groups and the PDFs which are gaining ground now. So, we are now facing a situation where

09:57the military is slipping its control and the other side is now winning and that presents a lot of

10:14difficulties for policymakers on how to deal with Myanmar, not only India, but the neighbouring

10:25countries whether it is Bangladesh, whether it is even China. In fact, if you could please bring

10:40out the strength of connections of China and Bangladesh because it is just, you know,

10:55incidental that Bangladesh has been in a state of turmoil since August last year, August 23 and

11:09I won't go too deep into whatever, there is a lot of happening there. But anything about the

11:19connection because now there is a Chinese connection certainly. Till the military junta

11:27was in power, their relations with China were not the kind where, you know, China of course would

11:34like, if it can help it, it would like to take over, you know, Myanmar. But that was not going

11:42to be, that was not going to happen with the junta in power. So, could you throw some light

11:50on this and also on the Kaladan, the status of the Kaladan project? Certainly, I think

12:01Bangladesh is important. In fact, at one place,

12:10it was mentioned that Bangladesh is the starting point of our look east policy, our act east

12:18policy. So, with Myanmar in turmoil, India was looking at Bangladesh as an opening to

12:28Southeast Asia. So, this was the alternative for us. Now, and we had a very supportive government

12:36in power in Bangladesh till recently. So, and we were also, that government was also helpful to

12:46India in dealing with terrorist groups within. No doubt, no doubt. Our relationship with the

12:57Awami League was very, very, very good, very strong. And now the situation has entirely

13:05changed. And now we have two neighbours to our east which are in turmoil. And to deal with this

13:16situation, particularly where Bangladesh already has, you know, the Rohingya camps are there.

13:29And there was talk of repatriation of some of the Rohingyas who are there in Bangladesh.

13:36So, there was some kind of expectation that some kind of reconciliation would take place between

13:44Bangladesh and Myanmar. But the situation which is existing in Myanmar at the moment,

13:52that makes our problem doubly confounding. So, we need to now see how best we can deal with

14:04this kind of a situation where the Myanmar-Bangladesh border is in disarray and our own

14:15behaviour also faced with refugee influx in our states. You know, our problem is that we have a

14:26very long border with Myanmar. Myanmar being geographically, strategically very important to us

14:35because of the 1643 long kilometre border that we have. We have Arunachal Pradesh,

14:42starting with Arunachal Pradesh, over 500 kilometres of border. Nagaland, over 200

14:49kilometres. Manipur with nearly 400 kilometres. And Mizoram with over 500 kilometres long border.

14:58So, in all, more than 1600 kilometre long border. And in at least two of the states,

15:06Manipur and Mizoram, we are facing a lot of ingress by refugees fleeing from these troubled

15:16eastern neighbours of ours. And that is creating its own instability in our northeastern states,

15:26particularly Manipur and Mizoram, which has traditionally, has been for a number of years,

15:36quiet. Then we could see some turmoil there as well in the future. So, our northeast is affected

15:47by this. Secondly, I mean, I would like to actually come to basically our objectives.

15:55What have been our objectives in dealing with Myanmar? We've had some strategic objectives.

16:05We've had some economic objectives. Strategically, the China factor has played an important role.

16:14China is, whenever the democratic forces have been weak in Myanmar, the Chinese have had an

16:26opportunity to have a role in Myanmar. And the military, since it has had a long

16:36rule in Myanmar, they have taken help from China off and on. And both economically and militarily,

16:48military arms, it was dependent on China. So, China is also building a number of projects

16:57in Myanmar. And if I could perhaps show you some of the

17:08maps that I have, which would help you.

17:28What about the status of the Kaladan project, which would eventually connect India and Myanmar?

17:39Exactly. That's what I was coming to. The Kaladan multimodal project, which starts from

17:48Zorinpuy in Mizoram and goes on to Chitwe port in Myanmar. That is a multimodal project because

17:58the Kaladan river, the Chitwe port and the road linking Zorinpuy with Myanmar, that road

18:13is the bone of contention at the moment because the Arakan army controls the Rakhine state where

18:23this project passes through. So, because of the disturbance in Rakhine state, the Kaladan

18:34project is not able to move to its completion as far as the road link is concerned.

18:41Once the road link is completed, the Kaladan project would provide access to Mizoram

18:52and our northeastern states. Yes, and Paletwa is one place which is, I think,

19:04established some control over Paletwa, which is affecting the Kaladan project.

19:11Now, what about, you know, there are Indian insurgent-turned-terrorist groups like the ALFA

19:25and the NSCN, the National Social Council of Nagaland and ALFA, the United Liberation Front

19:34of Ahom. At least these two and some other groups also which were, you know, enjoying

19:43shelter there. What is there? They had very good relations with the

19:53junta. That's how they were able to, you know, enjoy shelter there. Any light you can throw on

20:02that? The entire problem is that the kind of support that we were receiving earlier from

20:08Bangladesh, which helped us deal with ALFA and other terrorist groups which were taking refuge

20:17in Bangladesh, that support is now missing. And now also the Myanmar army has virtually no control

20:30on the border regions. So, that is the additional problem that we face in Rakhine state. And besides

20:40that, in Sagaing and Chin state, we face the problem that our trilateral highway, which

20:50begins in Manipur and goes through Myanmar, that project also which was nearing completion

21:01is at a standstill at the moment. So, these two flagship projects of India have suffered a setback

21:11because of the situation in Myanmar. I would like to just come to some of the major

21:24timelines that we have seen, how India has tried to deal with the developing situation

21:35in Myanmar since February of 2021, when the coup happened. In December 2021, the Indian

21:45Foreign Secretary had visited Myanmar and at that time he had met Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

21:53And in April of the next year, 2022, Ambassador Vinay Kumar had become the new ambassador

22:02in Myanmar. So, some kind of a change began in April 2022,

22:10more of engagement. November 2022, Indian Foreign Secretary visits Myanmar and he also met

22:19again the Senior General. In October 2023, that was a very important turning point when the

22:28Operation 1027 had happened. October of 2027, in 2023, when the Myanmar junta began to lose

22:44control over its territory in a major way, when the three groups had joined together

22:50against the military junta. And we also saw another change of our

22:58attack from New Delhi, when we sent a new ambassador in April 2024, when Ambassador Abhay

23:06Thakur took over as India's new ambassador. From that point onwards, you could say that

23:16a subtle shift in India's policy towards Myanmar has taken place, when we started a kind of dual

23:27track of engagement. And we now have not only our engagement with the Myanmar military, but there is

23:38also a second track of engagement with some of these ethnic groups, some of the opposition groups.

23:46So, in February of 2024, an important development again took place when Rajya Sabha MP

23:56met the Arakan Army in Paletwa in Chin State. So, this was important because for somebody from the

24:10Indian Parliament to actually have gone and met the Arakan Army. We had a different history of

24:17relationship with the Arakan Army in the past. So, we had actually helped the Myanmar military

24:28tackle Arakan Army earlier. So, there is a change of, a subtle change. And in November of 2024,

24:40another important development was holding of a seminar with SSC-led delegation.

24:47And there were some anti-SSC ethnic armed organizations also taking part in the backdrop

24:55of this seminar which was held by Indian Council of World Affairs. So, we have had a number of

25:08policy changes, some attempted change because of the developing situation in our neighbouring

25:17country. So, we have to see how these changes will take us forward because the other neighbouring

25:29countries particularly Thailand which has a continuing, has a long border with Myanmar also

25:40has tried to utilize its close relationship with the Myanmar military in bringing the

25:47neighbouring countries together in a dialogue and trying to see that some kind of

25:55way forward can be found in Myanmar. So, that also happened and India was also a party to

26:03that dialogue that took place in Thailand earlier. So, the other ASEAN countries have also

26:14attempted to tackle the problem in Myanmar. Malaysia will be the forthcoming chair of ASEAN

26:26in this year. Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohammad Hassan has said, we told them election is not a

26:37priority. Now, the Myanmar military is talking of an election in November 2025. They said election

26:44is not a priority, priority is ceasefire. I think this is the pressure that ASEAN is trying to

26:53convey to Myanmar that first you bring the hostility to an end.

27:04Malaysia has also announced the appointment of a former diplomat Othman Hashim as special envoy on

27:11Myanmar crisis. He is expected to visit Myanmar soon and let us see where that will take

27:20ASEAN's five-point consensus which has suffered a setback in the recent past

27:27because hostilities haven't stopped, dialogue hasn't really taken place and humanitarian aid

27:34which should be reaching the affected parties that also has been hindered. So, to have ASEAN's

27:43five-point consensus going forward, we have to see what Malaysia which is perhaps a little more

27:51proactive than Laos, the previous chair has been, maybe Malaysia can take this process forward.

28:00Malaysia is capable of taking a slightly more of a hard line towards Myanmar.

28:13It is trying to engage NUG in Myanmar and it is criticising the Janta

28:22for blocking the conflict resolution efforts.

28:26But on the other hand, the Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has also appointed

28:36former Thai Prime Minister Thaktin Shinavatra as a personal advisor on ASEAN matters. So, in a way,

28:44Malaysia is also playing a balancing role. It has taken on Thaktin Shinavatra as a personal advisor

28:55on ASEAN matters. So, now the focus will be in the coming days on what Malaysia's foreign minister

29:06Mohammad Hassan and the special envoy on the Myanmar crisis Othman Hashim begin to do

29:15with regard to Myanmar. Because India has given focus on ASEAN centrality. So, if we want ASEAN

29:26to succeed, we hope that Malaysia will be able to provide some way forward to dealing with the

29:35Myanmar crisis. Dr. Uday Bhanu, I have to stop here because we are short of time. But thank you

29:43very much for an exhaustive briefing on what is going on and the implications. Thank you very much.

29:53All the best. Thank you. But I only just wanted to put one more point that India will have to

30:03be dealing with whoever is in power in Myanmar. Of course. To stand forward India's

30:11strategic interests and to deal with... Yes, yes, no doubt. Thank you. Thank you, Dr. Uday Bhanu.

30:20Thank you, Karl.

Dr. Udai Bhanu Singh, former Senior Research Associate, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses speaks with Col Anil Bhat (retd.) on changes in Myanmar affecting India | SAM Conversation

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