Lt Gen Kamal Davar (Retd.) former DG, Defence Intelligence Agency & President, Delhi Forum for Strategic Studies speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on Israel-Iran war’s impact on India | SAM Conversation
00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor.
00:13Today we are going to discuss the impact of Israel-Iran war on India.
00:20For this, it is our pleasure to invite Lieutenant-General Kamal Dhabar, former DG Defence Intelligence Agency.
00:32He is a veteran of the 1965 and 1971 India-Pakistan wars.
00:39And as a commander, he is out of the few Armored Corps, that is Tank Formation Commanders, whose commander covers deals with both the Chinese and the Pakistanis.
00:56He is currently the President of the Delhi Forum for Strategic Studies.
01:03As far as the Israel-Iran war is concerned, we are waiting for it to be sure that it is over.
01:18Again, it was something which was done by Mr. Trump, taking part, taking a delayed part in it and shooting down about six or more locations, which are supposed to be nuclear sites.
01:40But according to reports, there is no sign of any radioactive fallout, dust or anything of that sort.
01:52So, it remains to be seen whether what the American forces targeted were actually the nuclear sites or not.
02:03Because even if they were earlier, there is a possibility that Iran may have removed their materials from these locations.
02:15So, as far as India is concerned, I think our stance has been quite balanced.
02:27We have not been leaning any too closely to either Israel or Iran.
02:41So, in Israel we have had a long, since 1992, we have had a very long and strong relationship of strategic affairs.
02:54And with Iran, it is a very long civilizational connection that we have had.
03:07There are so many Iranians who are happily settled in India.
03:13Sir, I would invite your comments on what you think, where do you think the ceasefire is, is it fully on or not yet?
03:32Right. Thank you, Colonel Anil Bhatt, for getting me once again on to the South Asia Monitor to share my thoughts on you on some of the problems which are plaguing the world.
03:44Now, before I answer your question specifically, let's see what is happening, what is the world these days.
03:52You know, we have always spoken about the world being a global village.
03:56But you would have noticed, especially after COVID-19, which by itself had, you know, shaken the entire world with devastating effects, physically and economically.
04:08How many, how so many regional and global disruptions have arisen?
04:14This is the first time, I think, after World War II, that so many of them simultaneously have arisen, and in areas and regions where they were totally unexpected.
04:26So, I mean, if I could use the cliche that the world is at war with itself, and there is so much of avoidable destruction, which is just going on.
04:37Now, coming nearer home, and to your question, India seeks not an inch of anybody's territory.
04:45We have told all our friends, other countries, including our neighbours, China and Pakistan, live in peace.
04:53What was necessary, tell me what was, and this is a question which the world must answer, not India.
05:00What was the necessity for Pakistan to send in a terrorist squad on 22nd April to Pehalgaam, a picturesque tourist spot in Jammu and Kashmir,
05:09and killed 26 unarmed, you know, tourists who were just there with their families, just because they were Hindus.
05:19They were asked, are you a Hindu or what else?
05:22And they were murdered in cold blood in front of their children and their wives.
05:28Now, tell me which religion, and I want to ask everybody in the world, which religion sanctions the dastardly cold blooded murder of, you know, normal tourists?
05:39Which religion allows them?
05:41So, what had happened, that on 6th or 7th May, we retaliated in a big way with Operation Sindhu, and we have taught a befitting lesson to the Pakistanis,
05:55and told them that if you do any further mischief, we'll come back to you and deliver you more befitting lessons than you can even imagine.
06:03And that should remain India's policy.
06:05I'm sorry I'm mixing up a couple of issues, but so it must start with Pakistan, where all the governments and prime ministers have tried to become friendly with them.
06:15They've done this back to us.
06:18Now let's come to the Iran-Israeli war.
06:21Yes, please.
06:22If I may, sir, we haven't really mixed up because when you now mentioned Pakistan,
06:28Pakistan has had a very dirty role to play in the Israeli-Iran conflict also.
06:41Absolutely.
06:42I'm coming to that.
06:43I'm just coming to that.
06:45Yes, yes, yes.
06:47You see, now, when we come to the Israel-Iran war, which, as you know, lasted for about 12 days from 12th of June to 24th or so, give or take one day here and there, it was raging in ferocity with all sorts of weaponry being fired by everybody.
07:06The Americans also got into it, surprisingly, but nevertheless, the thing is that today there is, I wouldn't call it a truce, there is some uneasy cessation of hostilities and some uneasy peace.
07:19Let's hope it carries on and some better sense prevails because both the countries are suffering in the long run.
07:25Too much of civilians, you know, and, you know, and destruction and too much of collateral destruction taking place.
07:34Now we come to what you mentioned about Pakistan also.
07:39The Pakistanis are laughing all the way at the moment.
07:44They are on a pig's back because of the so-called lunch being hosted by the American president, the general or field marshal self-styled, of course, Asim Munir.
07:55And everybody is trying to find out why was this lunch given and this, that and the other.
08:00That's actually immaterial.
08:02What is material is that, as far as we are concerned, I'll come to the impact of the Iran-Israel war a little later.
08:10Just let me finish this with, as far as Pakistan is concerned, the Pakistanis have, I think, definitely told the Americans that they'll do what they wish the Americans to do.
08:21Americans ask of them and they will, of course, take, you know, the IMF loans and things like that will be given to them and they will take some money because, as you all know, the world knows they are absolutely in dire straits economically.
08:35So, they will give their air bases because the Americans also were keeping certain contingencies alive that in case they have to bomb Iran from the other side, Pakistanis would have given them air bases.
08:49And Pakistanis have been their, you know, America has been their mentor since the early 50s.
08:55So, there's nothing to it.
08:57The Pakistanis are willing to pay whatever price, the highest price, which anybody can give.
09:04Mind you, at the same time, isn't it, isn't it a complex situation that the Americans, that the Pakistanis are, you know, begging and living on doles from China.
09:16And yet, they have now also got once again closer to the United States.
09:22It's, sir, it's a very, very dicey and very dangerous situation where Pakistan, which affects India also.
09:35Absolutely.
09:36Pakistan professed, Munir professed to be pro-Iran.
09:43Pakistanis.
09:44But it is reported in not only Iranian media, but also in other media that, that in his meeting with General Bakeri, the head of the Iran Army, he gifted a watch, which had a GPS embedded in it, which was the, which became the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the.
10:08the GPS embedded in it, which became the catalyst or whatever for General Bakery to be attacked.
10:19When he was attacked, two more generals died with him.
10:29After having, you know, tom-tom all the time that we are for Iran, we are for Iran,
10:38and Mr. Donald Trump, by making him do what he did, making Munir do what he did,
10:47has let down India very, very badly, sir.
10:55He has let down India as far as Operation Sindhur is concerned, because of all that he wanted to claim, etc.
11:04But here again, so this is a very indirect way that the Israel-Iran conflict has affected us, sir.
11:16Yeah. You see now, coming to what General Munir did, I mean, he acted like a small-time, you know,
11:25spy taking a watch and giving it to the Iranians.
11:28The Iranians are not going to forget it, never.
11:31For many, many years they'll remember that how a so-called fellow Muslim, fellow brother,
11:37of course, as we all know, there's a world of a difference between, in relationships between the Shias and the Sunnis.
11:43Having said that, the Iranians are not going to forget this treachery, which I would say there's no other word.
11:50It was actually given as what has been reported in the press and what you have alluded to.
11:56I think it's just not done. And imagine at the level of the chief of a country.
12:01Now, coming to what you were saying about Donald Trump.
12:06Now, as far as Donald Trump is concerned, and this is where the Pakistanis are applauding themselves or patting themselves on the back,
12:13that they have managed to re-hyphenate themselves with India.
12:18You know, we've over the last many years, Pakistan and India, there is no comparison.
12:23We are five times bigger. We are far more powerful.
12:26Our standing in the world is much, much more than what the Pakistanis can dream of.
12:30They are a terrorist exporting nation, and we are a peace loving nation where we talk of, you know,
12:37all the values and things like that. And as the prime minister also mentioned, that this is not the era of war.
12:44You know, so we're trying to do that. And I wish we had done much more to, you know, get rapprochement between the Iranians and the Israelis.
12:52And I think India has the moral authority, not of now, of the last 70, 80 years from the time of Gandhi and all that.
12:59We have a moral authority. I've been all I've been to many countries in the world and they respect us for our inclusivity and things like that.
13:08And we must remain that. So as far as Donald Trump is concerned, I think he also looks for very small time tactical gains.
13:19They must be wanting some air bases in Pakistan, which and some little, you know, help as far as the terrorists and other third rate elements are concerned with.
13:30The Pakistanis are still in touch with. So, you know, the Pakistanis also have some utility to the Americans and the Americans.
13:38If you look down into your history last 30, 40 years, they've been utilizing them, the Pakistani contacts in Afghanistan, Iran and things like that.
13:47So that will continue. So that doesn't matter. India is good enough. We are strong enough.
13:53We are balanced enough and we are sane enough to ensure that we we follow a policy in which our national interests are preserved.
14:02And we are not, you know, and we ensure our strategic autonomy and things like that.
14:07I'm sure the American public and some of the, you know, senior officials of the Pentagon and others would be advising their president that don't, for God's sake, just support a terrorist supporting, exporting nation just because, you know, you know, for a few little gains here and there.
14:31Sir, again, how it's affected India is, I think, we've been, we've played, we've played the diplomatic relations. We've been dealing diplomatically very correctly.
14:52And one of the, one of the, you know, proofs and positive results of that is that we've been able to have, you know, affected Indian population, Indian nations who are held up there.
15:07We've been able to smoothly, by God's grace, get them out from there.
15:12Absolutely. You see, the Iranians, as, as you yourself said, that we have civilizational and cultural links and we, let's not forget that till 2019, the Iranians were giving us oil at much cheaper rates and in rupees.
15:27Even in rupees. And it is only after the U.S. sanctions that India agreed to not to take oil from them. It's just, it's, you know, you just ask, it's for the asking, just ask Iran to give you oil and they'll give you oil if you so desire or the government insists.
15:45Now, you see, the thing about the, we, I think, sort of, we got slightly digressed. As far as Iran is concerned, it provides you much needed connectivity to India, to Central Asia.
15:57Let's not, please forget that. India's massive investment in Iran's Jabar port, which is a competitor to Pakistan's Gwadar port. Now, this enables India a wider link to the Central Asian republics.
16:11And why is it important? For India, not only regards energy security, but the abundance of rare earth minerals. We forget this rare earth minerals.
16:22And this Iran-Israel war will hamper India's trade with the cars. Let's not, you know, brush it aside. And it will also delay the progress of the so-called international north-south corridor, which we are trying to, you know, project and build and things like that.
16:40And any problem in this connectivity will also hamper India-Afghanistan trade relations to, as you know, Pakistan does not permit trade between India and Afghanistan using its overland routes.
16:56And what would China love to do? They would just love to replace India in its matrix with Kabul.
17:04We have got good relations with the Taliban, and they are very important also for us. So is Iran. So, you know, we have to keep our sense of balance and walk, you can call it a diplomatic tightrope.
17:17But then India is quite big enough. And we can even convince our American friends and other friends to look, these are in our national interests.
17:25Whatever we do when we pursue strategic autonomy, we are not harming you, old boy. So just relax. You do what you wish to do. We will do what we wish to do.
17:35No, no, no, but sir, recently, Mr. Trump has proved, he's been, he's done such a 180 degree turn, as far as India is concerned.
17:47Yeah, absolutely. He's turned out in Ops Indoor. And when you take a long look, what has the deep state, the deep state in US done, sir? Under the previous, under Joe Biden?
18:05They've done some very great harm to India with what they've done in Bangladesh.
18:11Absolutely.
18:13And that's to continue. We don't see that. I don't, we don't see Mr. Trump, you know, so far, he seems to be, he seems to have just, you know, like a, kicked like a football, whatever, very relations he built up, howdy, moody, and what have you.
18:36Absolutely. You see what happens is in the last, especially, before he was sworn in as the president, he was talking a lot about India, and all that.
18:45But if you see, see the record in the last three months, he has, you know, de-hyphenated, rather re-hyphenated India, Pakistan, and he's talking of Pakistan. And can you imagine the US Central Army commander, the United States guy, he's saying that the Pakistanis have helped them in, you know, use the word phenomenal assistance in terrorism.
19:10I mean, please, who are you? I mean, isn't it a joke? I mean, who are you trying to fool? And the Americans themselves know about it. And as I mentioned earlier, these tactical games don't suit a big part like the US.
19:24And the US, of course, are known for supporting terrorists, supporting dictators and things like that. And all this talk about democracy, and, you know, civilizational values and all is good re-hitoric, good to get an applause in a speech, but you don't implement it, then you're no good to, to the world.
19:43And we, we, all we can, sir, I think we, we must hope if there's any way that we can, you know, we can be of advice or in, in Israel and Iran, actually, you know,
20:12bearing the hatchet, I'm sure we won't be hesitating at all to do so. And this is not, this is not like Mr. Trump, you know, Mr. Trump's meddling. This is not meddling. But if we have good relations with both, then we are, we are a positive factor, sir.
20:37Absolutely. What are, what you said is a wonderful thought. And just, you know, I mean, I'm nobody, I'm a very humble, old veteran, but I have a bad habit of professing unsolicited advice to people who don't need it.
20:55But to a couple of people at somewhere or the other, I've suggested that India should have had a, you know, summit in Delhi, in which we should have called President Putin, President Donald Trump, and Iran, Israel, and a couple of others, Saudi, UAE, and a couple of others.
21:13And in New Delhi, over three days, try to sort out these problems, which can be sorted out. And that is where I had mentioned even earlier, I wish India with all the moral authority it has, which I believe, not as a patriotic Indian, no, I believe that India has the moral authority.
21:32And all we have to do is not think tactical again, think strategic, think for the world. Because if you want to be a Vishwaguru, I'm sorry, you have to have very broad shoulders, we should have got all these people to Delhi, and try to sort it out, we can still sort it out, because the so called peace in the Middle East is all very fragile, as you know, anything can happen any day.
21:55So we should try and make an effort to get people to New Delhi, and sort it out. And we can sort it out. After all, this is the land of Mahatma Gandhi. As a soldier, I'm saying that.
22:08No, no, sir, it's a very good, very good thought, a very good idea. And you never know, except for the very bumpy ride that we are now going through with the US.
22:23Yes. With all other countries, I think we, and let's not count China and Pakistan, because they are in the category of enemy number one and enemy number two, and they will remain so.
22:37But otherwise, the global relationships today, today of India, I think we are doing very well.
22:49And one is not trying to, you know, pat oneself on the back, but it's dispassionately looking at things.
22:59Yeah. Having said that, you know, we must also harmonize our neighborhood. And let me tell you, Iran, they are a big country. They're a powerful country.
23:11They would not appreciate the current, if I can use the word, flirtations of Pakistan with the United States.
23:21And they will be sending a message across to them, look, old boy, just relax.
23:26Otherwise, the Iranians have the ability to absorb a lot of, you know, whatever comes from across or from the enemy.
23:36Haven't they absorbed it even now from the Israelis and even from the Americans?
23:41So let's not give, you know, just treat them that they are, you know, that there is had some destruction after some airstrikes and all.
23:50So the moral of the story is that India must remain aloof from everybody and ensure that, you know, and if you remain that and you don't take sides, everybody will listen to you.
24:03Everybody will listen to you. And we have our own authority, moral authority and things like that.
24:09So let's exercise it in the larger good of our region and of the world. And I'm sure we can do it.
24:18No doubt, sir. You brought out a lot of, a lot of very important and positive aspects, sir. Is there anything you'd like to add, sir?
24:30Well, nothing, let nothing, very much except, again, I like to repeat that, let New Delhi, let our government organize a peace-seeking, peace-seeking conclave in Delhi and reach out to the world.
24:48Because the world is, you know, if you notice, there's so many disruptions taking place, so many kinetic conflicts taking place.
24:54And if you look at it, what has anybody achieved? Nothing. And most of these, you know, destructions which are going on, you please see Gaza, you please see, and I'm not talking of the Hamas, there are no Palestinians to me.
25:07But, you know, the ordinary Palestinians, you see those photographs of children crying, there is no food, so many people dying. What do you achieve? Nothing. Nothing you achieve.
25:18So, you know, I would suggest to America, look, you're the most powerful nation in the world, remain that, but for God's sake, reach out to people and work towards peace.
25:31Otherwise, we're all, we're all on the way to self-destruct this planet. It's a beautiful planet, but most of us are working towards this self-destruction.
25:42And I think there's one, one wish, advice, whatever you call it, sir, for Iran. Do not, do not, it should not, support the three H's, the Hamas, the Hezbollah and the Houthis.
26:04Absolutely. No, Iran also, I mean, there is no doubt on the fact that they have been exporting terrorism also in that region, in the Middle East.
26:12There's no denying the fact, but, but Iran should be prevailed upon by, you know, a comity of nations to look, it is not in your interest.
26:20You are, you're a big country, you've got oil, you can live, look after your people and have, and live very well and peacefully with prosperity and happiness.
26:31For God's sake, don't, you know, export terrorism in the Shia oriented or whatever it was.
26:36So, you see, the thing is, if you have good relations and you had an effective United Nations, which is, I'm sorry to say is totally ineffective.
26:45You know, we could have had a better world and we must, all of us, in our own ways, strive for a better world.
26:54Thank you, sir.
26:59And today is an auspicious day with the second Indian group, Captain Shukla, having reached, you know, the International Space Station.
27:10Yes, sir.
27:11So, congratulations to him, congratulations to everybody.
27:14And I still remember when, when the, when our first fellow, Sharma, went up and Mrs. Gandhi asked him,
27:23And he said those golden words,
27:28What a beautiful thing.
27:32And so is Shukla now doing.
27:34So, it's a matter of pride today, a great pride for us, all of us today.
