Aparna Rawal, security researcher and analyst, speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on changing Af-Psk dynamics as Afghan Taliban warms up to India | SAM Conversation - video Dailymotion

South Asia Monitor

Aparna Rawal, security researcher and analyst, speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on changing Af-Psk dynamics as Afghan Taliban warms up to India | SAM Conversation

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00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor. We are going to discuss

00:19the deteriorating situation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, even as Afghanistan Taliban

00:30warms up to India. To discuss this, we have Ms. Aparna Rawal, a researcher and specialist

00:42in this subject. Aparna, welcome to South Asia Monitor. Thank you for having me, sir.

00:57Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan was established in 2007 as a coalition of various Sunni Islamist

01:06groups of Pakistan and it launched a lot of attacks on Pakistani forces and even civilians,

01:25killed some leaders and carried on this way till the second takeover of the Taliban

01:35in Afghanistan in 2021. Thereafter, the equation changed that

01:45the relations between Pakistan and the Afghani Taliban, unlike earlier, they deteriorated

01:56and became quite violent. 2024 has been a particularly violent year with the Tehreek-e-Taliban

02:12Pakistan becoming more and more effective and even being joined by the Balochistan groups.

02:25The activist groups in Balochistan, anti-Pakistan. Ms. Rawal, I request you to

02:41bring us an update of what has happened since late, very briefly what has happened in 2024

02:52and then come down to 2025, which again has been quite eventful in this very month.

02:59Yes. For starters, sir, the Taliban was a creation of Pakistan. We all know that.

03:09So, since the Taliban came to power in 2021, Pakistan was hoping for a strategic depth

03:16in Afghanistan and they were hoping that in this way, they could curb groups like TTP,

03:23Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and also the Baloch, Pashtun militant groups, which were also working

03:31in hand with TTP. Because TTP wants a Sharia law, but at the same time, these so-called groups like

03:38TTP, then there are other groups like Gul Bahadur group and all these are like the splinter groups

03:49that have similar ideologies as Taliban. And now most of them are actually looking Taliban with

03:55great admiration because this was an insurgent group. I wouldn't call it terrorist because in

04:00some countries, it's not designated as a terrorist group. And Taliban started from like

04:07an insurgent group, a militant group, and has now transformed into like a de facto government.

04:13So, most of these splinter groups look at Taliban as a sort of a role model to carry this forward.

04:20And they also have pledged their allegiance to Taliban. Taliban has close connections with Al-Qaeda.

04:26Hence, most of these small splinter groups have now connections with Al-Qaeda and bigger groups

04:32like Haqqani and all, because Haqqani and Taliban together have formed the interim government in

04:38Afghanistan. So, since 2024, a lot of things have now emerged, a lot of new things are emerging,

04:45but we can't say that history is not repeating itself. History is again repeating itself.

04:51For starters, whoever Pakistan aligns with, if it is not their way or the highway, it's always

04:58been the case. And most of these groups have always been doomed after Pakistan decides to

05:04cut loose and run if it doesn't get what it wants. For example, when Taliban came into creation,

05:11it was created by the Pakistani ISI with heavy funding. Some funding came from the Saudi,

05:18some came from the Al-Qaeda groups. It trained a bunch of warriors or fighters in Pakistan during

05:25the Soviet era, the Soviet Afghan war. More than 250,000 fighters were created and they were sent

05:36across the border to fight. Some of them were mercenaries from foreign lands. They didn't have

05:41to be just Pakistan or Afghan refugees who had come back to Pakistan. These were people who

05:47were coming from different Islamic countries who were ready to fight in the name of jihad.

05:52They were created. Taliban movement took place. They moved forward. In 1996, they came to power.

05:58That time, they were not able to reach their goals. There was a fall. The Karzai government

06:03came into power. But the fact of the matter is, one thing with every organization or a government

06:11that has ruled in Afghanistan or that has been in power, the one thing that they could never

06:16settle with Pakistan was over the Durand line. The Durand line was one thing that none of the

06:23governments, regardless of who it was, whether it was nourished by Pakistan or other different

06:28superpowers, it didn't matter because at the end of the day, the Afghans view the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

06:36as one big part of the Pashtun land, Pashtunistan as they call it.

06:41And even Taliban has openly, most of the time, said that you cannot separate the families and

06:47the Durand line is nothing but an artificial entity. However, Pakistan inherited the Durand

06:53line after its independence. It has stuck to its stance saying that, no, this is through

07:00international law. Hence, you must respect the Durand line. While nobody from the Afghan side,

07:06regardless of which government was in power, has ever supported that, believing that the

07:11Pashtuns were divided. And with this, what happened was there was a fallout,

07:19even though Pakistan thought it would play the Taliban as a puppet to get its gains,

07:25have a strategic debt and control the TTP. This has failed very miserably because TTP decided

07:32that it was not going to go ahead with the ceasefire, which it had declared in 2021.

07:41By December 2021, everything went downhill. There was a surge of attacks.

07:48It has continued. There's a massive uptick now. Not only has TTP joined hands with

07:55the splinter groups that have pledged allegiance to the Taliban, but also with the new Pashtun and

08:03Baloch militant groups that are coming into picture. Most of them have now joined hands.

08:09There have been coordinated attacks between the groups. And in order to do so,

08:16the Taliban also has not commented much on it. I wouldn't say reluctantly. I would say that they

08:24haven't really said much about curbing these groups. Pakistan was hoping that Taliban would

08:30intervene and curb the groups. They haven't done that, not to mention with the Durand line skirmishes

08:36going on. Pakistan has been saying that the Afghanistan government has been providing safe

08:44havens and shelters for a lot of anti-Pak elements. It could be TTP or a few other groups.

08:51The leaders and the core commanders have safe havens over there. In the meantime, what has

08:56happened is TTP former core commander Ehsanullah Ehsan has suddenly become very vocal. There were

09:04reports that were coming out on social media where this man decides to come out and expose

09:11the Pakistani ISI. He even made a statement saying that the Pakistani ISI, in order to

09:18curb TTP, has decided to join hands with the ISIS Khurasan. And this ISIS Khurasan is now working

09:27under this Davori agreement, while their major core commanders, leaders are now given safe havens

09:35in Pakistan in government guest houses. So Ehsanullah, what he did was he exposed a bunch

09:43of names which were pertaining to the ISKP cadre. Now what has happened, TTP is also making a claim

09:51that under the military fire, ISI hopes to push the ISIS cadre right through the border

10:01into Afghanistan. So that way ISKP can go emerge into Afghanistan and carry out what Pakistan

10:09could not do. Plus it gives Pakistan a reason for deniability. If a terror group takes the fall,

10:16it gives Pakistan a reason for deniability. ISIS Khurasan is actually a rival group of Taliban.

10:29You just mentioned about ISIS Khurasan. Could you elaborate on its full form and

10:38just mention exactly how this came about, this connection?

10:44Yes. The thing with ISIS Khurasan in the area, it's basically now considered as an offshoot

10:55with the parent group being the ISIS, the main ISIS central, which is called Daesh. Initially

11:03when it emerged in Afghanistan, they were a bunch of small groups. Some of them were lone

11:09wolves in a way. They were carrying out their operations. They would go install themselves

11:14in the tribal area. Now in Afghanistan, a lot of warlords and feudal lords still exist, tribes,

11:20so on. So what this cadre started doing was planting itself in the tribal matters, taking

11:27sides, trying to resolve feuds, changing perceptions, because the idea was to have

11:33a monopoly on jihad in Afghanistan, using Afghanistan as a launching board. However,

11:39what happened was, what they didn't anticipate was Taliban coming to power. Taliban came to power,

11:45not only did it come to power, it had access to technology and weapons, which the US had left

11:51behind. So now they had this, plus Taliban started out a witch hunt for anybody who was a

11:57part of the Ghani government. A lot of the intelligence officers, soldiers, even the other

12:03people who were sympathizers, the officials, or anybody who was a sympathizer of the Ghani

12:08government was hunted down and killed. So most of these people from this faction started joining

12:18ISKP, the ISIS Khurasan. And the other thing that happened was, when Taliban came to power,

12:25a lot of its fighters were ordered to go back home, to their land of origin, their homeland.

12:31So some of them didn't have jobs. There was increase in unemployment. So most of the Taliban

12:37fighters also were seen joining ISKP, because now Taliban had left the war theater and now was

12:45trying to behave like a government. So with this what happened was, ISKP started gaining traction.

12:53Now one way of curbing another group was to support the ISKP. So what TTP, former commander,

13:01what he said was, ISI, Pakistani intelligence is known to carry this kind of a strategy.

13:10We have seen this in Kashmir also. Under the fire of the military infiltration,

13:15water infiltrations, what they do is they push their cadre across the border. And this is something

13:21that the TTP core commander spells out, even in his articles, and he tells people that

13:27this is exactly what Pakistan is trying to do with Afghanistan. And this is how, once they

13:33push the ISKP cadre into Afghanistan, it carries out the attacks or assassinations. And this has

13:39happened in the past too. Pakistan has used other groups to do this. But here, since we are just

13:46speculating on the current times, we are going to talk about just what is happening. So this

13:51is what the core commander from the TTP said. However, ISI has denied that. Also, the people

14:00who had good relations with the Taliban, for example, the previous Imran Khan regime, these

14:08people were very pro-Taliban. Even their ISI spy chief, Faiz Hamid, was seen sorting out

14:17some kind of a dispute between the Taliban leaders and the Haqqani leaders when they were trying to

14:24form a government. He was seen in Afghanistan, literally in September, as soon as Taliban came

14:30to power. Faiz Hamid, right now, is being arrested. He has been court-martialed for trying to support

14:38Imran Khan, even trying to create some kind of protest. The main protest that happened after the

14:46arrest of Imran Khan, they believe Faiz Hamid had something to do with. So that way, this was

14:52Asim Munir's, the current general, COAS's plan to get rid of these people. Yes.

15:01So, please also, you know, throw some light on the participation of the Balochistan

15:11Liberation Army and other Balochi groups who are now siding with the Zariqat Taliban Pakistan

15:22against, they were already against the Pakistani state because they were, I think,

15:31the Pakistani, Pakistan army, particularly, had been very, very exploitative towards them.

15:41So what has happened? So, as we know, the Baloch have always asked for self-determination. Heavy

15:48crackdowns have been happening in Balochistan since forever. A lot of Baloch insurgents have

15:54picked up arms. Not only have they evolved in terms of their fighting, their human intelligence

16:00has improved vastly over the past couple of years. Human intelligence, the network,

16:06and also the fighting tactics have changed. Initially, it was more of like attack and

16:11scamper. Now, these days, we don't see that. They are actually taking on the military full-fledged.

16:18We've seen this in many, many cases, not just the Baloch. Baloch are fighting under brass,

16:23you know, the umbrella network of all the Baloch insurgents where you see BLA, BLF, so on.

16:29Then there is also the Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army, which is a part of this. So, you have people,

16:35the Sindhis fighting, you have the Baloch fighting. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Pashtuns have their

16:41strong allegiance towards the other Pashtuns who might be across the border because, at the end of

16:47the day, they don't view the Durand Line as a form of a boundary. They look at it as an artificial

16:54entity. Then the local civilians think of it this way too. So, in one side, this has happened.

17:01So, what has happened is now there's a network that has formed. Each one of them tag-team to

17:08get the job done because they all have one single goal, that is anti-Pakistan activities. So,

17:15they will go ahead and work together to achieve their respective goals. And most of them also

17:20feel that they're being exploited. Not to mention the attacks in KP from these groups has really

17:27risen quite a bit. KP and some areas around the border. So, Pakistan decided that it would start

17:35initiating this operation on the request of the Chinese because the Chinese investments, which

17:41were more towards the western side of the border, were coming under heavy attacks. Because, of

17:46course, the people who think that they are being colonized by Pakistan and might be subjugated by

17:53them and replaced as a demographic by the Chinese, they're worried. So, the attacks have been

18:01increasing on CPEC projects and it has been a big disaster for the Chinese too. So, the Chinese

18:08had ordered Pakistan to help out and they had lost interest in how much security was being provided.

18:15So now, with the Chinese in play, the militants have increased their attacks even more frequently.

18:21They've become more confident. We were not even seeing earlier the females. There have been some

18:27Chinese casualties. Yes, there have been massive Chinese casualties. There have been some serious

18:33Chinese casualties. Yes, over the years it has just been expanding. Now, even their investments

18:39were being attacked. And not only that, the insurgents have become so much more confident

18:46because, yes, now over the years they have reached a certain amount of technicality in their attacks

18:52also, strategy as well. Initially, we were not seeing as many women fedayeen, you know, the

18:58suicide bombers. Most of these groups, like the Majid Brigade of the Baloch Liberation Army,

19:05started employing females. Female fedayeen attacks were taking place where they would

19:10lead the way. They would come across as unsuspecting and the attacks were carried by

19:16this radical arm of BLA, which was the Majid Brigade. And they have claimed a lot of attacks,

19:22not only on the Pakistan military installments, but also the Chinese projects.

19:27So, with this, China was worried last year. China ordered Pakistan to do something about it.

19:32Pakistan, in order to appease China, decided it will come up with Operation Azme Ishtakam. However,

19:40protests broke out in all these areas in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, POJK, so on.

19:47And the government had no choice but to be a little more lenient. So, now what we are expecting

19:55in this area is that there will be certain private security sectors which will be given

20:01some kind of a leaving. Pakistan is coming to some terms with giving China certain responsibility

20:09in managing its own security. With all these developments, we can't expect the insurgents

20:17to not up their game. There will be upticks and there will be more insurgencies that will follow

20:24because of this. More attacks, more things. But on the other side, Taliban being a country and

20:30not being able to do anything to maintain its relations with Pakistan is going to be very

20:36difficult for any relation to be built on. Not to mention, on December 31st, reports came out

20:44that Pakistani chief of ISI, he actually met up with the president of Tajikistan.

20:54And Tajikistan is a very sensitive matter. It might not be politically or militarily strong

21:02as the other nations, but it houses the national resistance force of Afghanistan,

21:12which is anti-Taliban. That is one. Plus, the president of Tajikistan himself is worried because

21:19the Tariq-e-Taliban in Tajikistan. So, these people are looking to overthrow

21:33the current government in Tajikistan. So, Pakistan being desperate to maintain alliance,

21:39to bring down Taliban or to show a force of power to curb it into following what it wants,

21:45has met already with the Tajikistan president. And of course, this is not going to serve its

21:51purpose of building better relations with Taliban. So, this is one issue that is already happening.

21:58So, there are three factors if we have to think about it, why the deterioration is happening.

22:03One is because the border skirmishes. The Durand line is honored by Pakistan,

22:08but Afghans do not honor it, neither do the Pashtuns. Then secondly, the other issue is

22:15now with this person, the chief going, the ISI chief going and visiting

22:20Tajikistan and asking them to build on security agreements, you know, working in military tandem

22:27to counter, you know, the Taliban activities is also not going to fare well. And lastly, also,

22:34we have an issue with the refoulement, the Afghan refugees which are being sent back to Afghanistan.

22:41That is another issue which is becoming a big matter. A lot of these Afghan refugees,

22:48they had come back. Some of them, the families had returned to Pakistan, fled to Pakistan because of

22:54the Soviet-Afghan conflict. The Durand line had become like a regular exchange of Afghan refugees

23:01running into Pakistan and the Mujahideens who were trained from Pakistan running across the

23:06border to fight. So, some families have existed in Pakistan ever since the Soviet era. Their

23:12families have continued. But however, some of them might not have citizenships. Some of them have

23:18undocumented visas or cards, while some are claiming that it's a heavy crackdown that

23:24Pakistan is doing out of security matter. Because Pakistan believes that Taliban might be

23:32sending out its own fighters in form of refugees and may cause problems in Pakistan. So, they

23:40decided that they would like send back everyone. So, 23rd November is, I mean, sorry, no. In November

23:49of 2023, this is when the repatriation program started. And they were given one month to leave

23:57Pakistan. However, that did not happen. This got extended until next year, the 2024. Then,

24:05Pakistan came up with this idea that we need to do this in phases. So, it will be phase two.

24:12I mean, it got a lot of criticism from the rest of the world, international

24:17platforms. But at the end of the day, Pakistan is also economically weak at the moment.

24:23It can barely survive, let alone take care of the refugees. So, the idea was to send them back

24:29on the pretext that this was actually affecting their internal security. And of course,

24:36Pakistan said that and Taliban's reaction to TPP problem of Pakistan was that this is Pakistan's

24:44internal problem. We have no reason to get involved. So, there have been blame games going

24:50on between the two countries. And because of this, the deterioration is getting worse. Yes.

25:00You know, I must thank you for a lot of facts that you, facts developments that you have

25:08brought out. And as you know, it's also a fact that while so much has happened between

25:22the Tehreek-e-Taliban and Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban have warmed up towards India.

25:33Well, India has been correct in accepting that because it makes no sense in alienating yourself

25:48to a group which is in charge of the country, which is running the country. But the fact remains

25:57the fact remains that no matter how much of the doldrums that Pakistan may be alleged to be,

26:07it is not at all affecting its induction of terrorists into India. That has continued.

26:19And we cannot expect that to be, you know, to go down just because there's pressure

26:30on Pakistan of Afghanistan. The only way to sort that out is between, you know,

26:37when the Indian government takes greater measures like it has in the past of the surgical strikes

26:45or the Balakot strikes, you know, many more of these at short intervals will certainly have

26:55a very great effect. But otherwise, we have to live with that. And by all means, we can,

27:05you know, continue to develop our relations with the Afghan Taliban, hoping that

27:15in the situation in Afghanistan improves for the Afghans. Yes, as it used to be.

27:23I think so. India's approach at this moment is a very pragmatic approach. But at the same time,

27:31I think India was always very connected with the people of Afghanistan, not so much as Taliban,

27:36which is why I think, of course, I think, which is why the humanitarian aid never stopped,

27:41regardless of how Taliban came to power. India is also one of the countries that had spoken about

27:48how Taliban had not taken a single woman on the cabinet. Exactly, exactly. That's one of the very

27:54major issues. However, I would like to add this. Recently, Al Jazeera has been quoting certain

28:00analysts saying that India has not taken a stance against, you know, the atrocities being

28:07infected on the women. But that's not true, because India has been speaking up ever since the

28:12time Taliban has come to power. And not only has India, if not spoken now, India has shown a lot,

28:19displayed a lot through action when it came to providing humanitarian aid, vaccines, so on.

28:25Not only that, we have also proposed the development of the Chah Bahar Port, so that way we

28:31can also provide a trade to even Afghanistan. It will be better for us and for Afghanistan and

28:39also for Iran, a symbiotic relation in a way. So, what India is doing is a very pragmatic approach.

28:45Indian assistance to Afghanistan has continued. In fact, this is one of the countries which has

28:55been at the forefront of, you know, assisting even in the earlier phase after the Taliban was

29:05driven out. And even now, that continues. Yes, yes, because like what Al Jazeera and few other,

29:14and I'm going to specify it, Reuters, Al Jazeera, these are the two publications that have been

29:19defaming India by saying that we haven't said a word while we're trying to warm up to Taliban.

29:23But then again, Taliban wasn't our creation, Taliban was Pakistan's creation. I think if

29:29anything, you should hold the person responsible who has produced it. You're right in that,

29:35but then there are so many. Today, India is in a position where there are a number of countries

29:43or forces, you know, which are not very happy about its progress and are working very hard

29:55to do us down. Well, be that as it may. Thank you, Aparna Rahul, for all your inputs. All the best.

Aparna Rawal, security researcher and analyst, speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on changing Af-Psk dynamics as Afghan Taliban warms up to India | SAM Conversation

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