00:00Alex, things are pretty quiet in the tropics right now, which they typically are this time of the year.
00:06But you always have to stay on guard.
00:09And what I find interesting is that when you look at the July breeding grounds,
00:14you kind of see early in the month homegrown development,
00:17and then by the end of the month, you start looking out in the tropical Atlantic a little bit.
00:22Yeah, if we were to split the month up in half, the first half of the month, like you just said,
00:26would be much closer to home.
00:28A lot of times we look for those stalled fronts, you know, close to home in the Gulf or off the southeast coast.
00:33But as you get more into the second half of the month,
00:36that's when we start to open up the eastern Caribbean or even a little bit further out into the Atlantic.
00:42And we do have some areas highlighted in those areas.
00:45A little area was interesting coming in this morning,
00:48that blow up of showers and thunderstorms or the clouds that you see north of Puerto Rico.
00:53You know what, though?
00:54So that's starting, it's in an area surrounded by dry air but low wind shear.
00:59We don't think much happens with that.
01:01Yeah, I don't think so.
01:02We highlighted the area this morning because it had a really big blow up of convection there this morning,
01:06and it was sustained for a fairly good period of time.
01:09There was a chance that if that convection could stay sustained that maybe you could get a low pressure to form there.
01:14It really didn't happen, so I think the chances of that developing are near zero.
01:19Either way, it's moving away from the U.S.
01:21And you could see it's just surrounded by dry air.
01:24It was the light wind shear that helped sustain it.
01:27But when you look at the water vapor loop, you could see while it's very difficult during the month of July,
01:33not impossible like we saw with Barrow last year, where any tropical waves coming out of the Atlantic,
01:39they have to overcome what I call a hostile condition, dry air and wind shear.
01:45Yeah, a lot of this orange and yellow that you're seeing on the screen is a lot of that's African dust
01:50that's actually coming across the Atlantic.
01:52And essentially that really just chokes out a lot of these tropical waves that try to develop early in the hurricane season.
01:57But typically as we move into the month of August and certainly into September, that dry air really decreases
02:03and that can really open the door for stuff to develop.
02:05And you can't see clusters of thunderstorms now off the west coast of Africa, Alex.
02:10Yeah, we're starting to watch the next tropical wave come across.
02:13Pretty robust wave right now, but we'll have to track it across the Atlantic.
02:17It's got to get through all of this dry air.
02:19Right now we have a low chance of developing.
02:21Not a lot of wind shear, but it's mainly the dry air that it's going to have to contend with.
02:26You can see those really light pink colors on that screen, really indicating the low wind shear.
02:30But the time to watch this will be July 30th to August 2nd as it comes across the Atlantic.
02:36Then it probably moves north of the Lesser Antilles towards the Turks and Caicos.
02:40We'll still have to track it there.
02:43You were mentioning boundaries and upper lows that come south for homegrown development.
02:48There is going to be a boundary off the southeast coast middle part of next week.
02:55Yeah, that's been the story.
02:56A lot of these fronts coming across the southeast, stalling, trying to get a little bit of spin going.
03:00We saw that with Chantal.
03:01But unlike Chantal, I think if something develops here, it would be moving away from the United States.
03:07Really quickly, some gusty winds in Hawaii.
03:12That's something that we've been sounding the alarm on.
03:15Yeah, and this is not going to be the same type of setup that we saw two years ago that helped to contribute to the Maui wildfires.
03:22It's a totally different setup, but on a weaker scale.
03:25So expect the trade winds to really start to increase Monday night into Tuesday in Hawaii and go throughout the rest of the week and into the weekend as we have a tropical storm to the south and high pressure to the north.
03:36So there is a wildfire risk, but this is not the same type of setup that we saw two years ago.
03:43AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva.
03:45Alex, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
